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Kraken Publishes Crypto Forecast for Top Traders, Says History Suggests Huge Bitcoin Bull Run Incoming

San Francisco-based digital asset exchange Kraken has released a report for its top traders to the public, which predicts Bitcoin may be at the start of a major bull run.

The document highlights the fact that the crypto king has finally broken out of a large pennant pattern that has kept bears in control since the latter part of 2017. According to the crypto exchange, the breakout could indicate the start of a new bull cycle as Bitcoin surges above $10,500 and prints a higher high from a macro perspective.

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Source: Kraken

The exchange notes the fact that BTC’s annualized volatility fell to 23% on July 24th. The report stresses that every time Bitcoin’s annualized volatility falls between 15% – 30%, which Kraken refers to as the “suppressed pocket,” sharp moves to the upside typically follow.

Kraken says Bitcoin’s price history “seems to suggest that the late-July jump in volatility is merely the start of what is likely to be a new uptrend.” The firm predicts Bitcoin’s volatility could soon rise above 100% as BTC “rallies somewhere between +50% and +200%” in the coming months.

“Of the 12 instances where annualized volatility bottomed between 15% and 30%, volatility has, on average, bottomed at 21% before climbing higher over the next three months (94 days) and topping out at 140%.

Only on two occasions has Bitcoin posted a negative return from volatility trough-to-peak; on average, Bitcoin returns +196%…

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Source: Kraken

Although momentum appears to be on the side of the bulls, Kraken cautions that wild price swings are likely on the horizon.

“With Bitcoin having only traded above $11,000 for 91 of its 3,636 days of trading (2.5% of its life), we anticipate volatility to build as Bitcoin unlocks new levels of support and resistance and navigates through uncharted waters.” 

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