Nano is delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) blockchain with directed acyclic graphs (DAG) designed to service instant, fee-less payments without offering a robust smart contract platform or reliable store of value. Nano targets a popularized market niche by working to build a protocol to with record transactions processing speeds, low latencies, and easy scalability. Nano is built to decentralize ownership of on-chain assets primarily via a captcha-solving distribution event without mining rewards or a coin offering.
Year in Review
In February 2018, The Nano Core team were informed by the owner of BitGrail, a fifth exchange by Nano-trading volume, Francesco “The Bomber” Firano of the loss of $170 million worth of Nano due to a software mishap. In a blog update they report that the fault appears to be related to BitGrail’s software.
This quite predictably sent a shockwave of accusations and uncertainty through the community and their coin price, which had already fallen from its January ATH, continued to slide. The epilogue of the saga is that Firano is convicted in Italian courts
and ordered to repay the $170 million worth of cryptocurrency that went “missing” early last year. And this was the event that marked the whole year for NANO or XRB as it was called at the time.
Other notable events saw Ledger Nano S announcing support of Nano tokens on their hardware wallet, couple of community developed projects being launched on Nano network (NanoMate, NanoVault etc).
As you would expect, Nano team that is known for their technical prowess, was very active in developing and optimizing their network with couple of bigger releases seeing the daylight, like Boulton, Dolphin V18 and official Nano wallets for mobile and desktop.
How to evaluate fundamentals of a crypto project
We should consider crypto valuations like educated gambling, a ‘prediction market’ where we are betting on the odds of project and token success. There are some catalysts of success we can identify:
- Project success drivers (user traction, strong financial bottomline, good treasury management, network effects/synergies between users and token investors)
Real user traction is the most important driver of success, that is what most of holders call “adoption”. If people start using certain crypto project because they find it useful and it makes their life easier, that is a guarantee of success. So far, almost no crypto project can claim to have done so.
Strong financial warchest that will enable teams behind the project to develop their visions, incentivize other developers to join them and start using their product is also a crucial aspect of any project. Tied into it is treasury management – especially for the project that had big ICO proceeds. Temptation to squander all those millions into “conferences and events” (read hard-core partying on yachts and luxury hotels) was massive, especially if we consider that majority of token projects founders were no-names and ordinary employees that worked for a paycheck before the ICO fairy-tale happened to them.
Another adoption indicator – network effects, where every additional user of a good or service adds to the value of that product to others. When a network effect is present, the value of a product or service increases according to the number of others using it.
If you can objectively notice that your favorite token project has some of these traits happening for it, be happy – you might have found a winner.
- Token success drivers (favourable demand-supply dynamics, programmable incentives on token, aligned incentives with management team and consensus on token as common unit of value creation).
Token success is completely dependent on tokenomics. As defined by infloat.co, tokenomics involves the incentivization of certain stakeholders to ensure particular behavior.
So, tokenomics is essentially an incentive structure designed to ensure that a token has a purpose and utility within its native network. It is the study of how coins/tokens work within the broader ecosystem that can be considered as a sovereign micro-economy. This includes such things like token distribution as well as how they can be used to incentivize positive behaviour in the network.
For example, bitcoin is designed to ensure that bitcoin miners have a reason to mine new bitcoin. Miners validate bitcoin transactions and receive (or create) newly minted bitcoin in the process.
On the other hand, individuals, businesses and other bitcoin users pay a transaction fee for miners to include their transaction in the next block. This ensures that even when all bitcoin have been minted (to the tune of 21 million, which should happen in around 2140), bitcoin miners are still incentivized to keep ‘mining’ (i.e. validating transactions).
To paraphrase all of the above in the simplest terms: if you, after weeks of research and reading, can’t figure out why the project needs to have a token, it probably doesn’t.
So why does the token exist then?
– To make the project founders rich.
But there are some people on Twitter, Reddit, Telegram claiming otherwise.
-Yes, they are either: paid to do so by those same founders, they are desperate and delusional bad holders or they are just stroking their own ego with newly learned fancy economic terms and jargon.
Needless to say – stay clear of such projects.
Captain Altcoin’s NANO Price Prediction for 2020
NANO, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, NANO can hope for one as well.
Since a strong Bitcoin move in 2020 is very likely, we can expect some swings and moves upwards by NANO as well. So 2020 will be a year of potential big moves (more likely upwards) and we can see NANO at least doubling its end of 2019 price value.
Of course, we speak about NANO price denominated in USD. In terms of its BTC value, it is more likely that BTC will outperform it and NANO will be worth less Satoshis by the end of 2020.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
NANO-BTC Price Correlation
Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to 1. Values above 0 shows the degree to which altcoin is moving in the same direction as BTC prices (either up or down in tandem), and values below 0 shows the degree to which altcoin moves in the opposite direction of BTC prices (so when BTC goes down, altcoin goes up, or vice versa). Values around 0 shows that when BTC price moves, altcoins stays steady, or alternatively that when altcoin moves up or down that the BTC price is staying steady.
NEO has had a correlation coefficient of 0.90+ for the most of its market life, as shown on the image below – source.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
NANO Future Outlook
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will NANO be among those 5%?
That is a tough question to answer.
From technology perspective, NANO does look very solid and unique in their solving of archetypal blockchain problems like scalability and decentralization. However, Nano is very weak in terms of business growth, they have almost no merchant market penetration and noone outside of crypto circles knows about them, ergo – their brand presence is very weak, almost non-existent.
Considering Nano is competing with other payment coins, which is an arena full of heavyweights, starting from the king itself – bitcoin and followed by a whole bevy of projects like bitcoin cash, litecoin, dash, monero etc. its chances of success are meager.
Nano is also infamous for their poor marketing efforts, or to be more precise complete lack of such. Nano team apparently took an approach “build it and they will come”, fully relying on the technology and neglecting all other business aspects of a project of this magnitude.
They did step up their promotion game a bit, especially on Reddit where you can see Nano posts on r/cryptocurrency fairly often but that still doesn’t reach the users outside of the crypto bubble and considering crypto community’s toxicity towards overpromotion, Nano might see counterproductive results from its efforts.
All of this gives Nano pretty slim chances of actually succeeding, unless their mantra of “build it and they will come” actually surprises everyone and they land some big corporation to implement them as a payment rail. Probability for this to happen, though, is levitating around zero.
Why will NANO succeed?
NANO has also been lauded for their active community that often takes part in the development of the NANO ecosystem with their own apps, services and platforms.
Why will NANO fail?
Can NANO reach $100?
What goes in NANO’s favor is its relatively low total supply of 133 million that is already 100% issued, meaning there is no inflation.
Is Nano dead?
No, judging by the team activity on social media, github, their own website. Their communities on Reddit and Telegram are also active, although much lower engagement levels are noticeable when compared to 2017. Coin is also still listed on all major exchanges which indicates that NANO is far from a dead project.
All of this summed up means one thing: NANO might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect NANO will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership
Market prediction for NANO Price 2020
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the Nano price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies. According to them, Nano is expected to go down to $0.08 in one year. This price prediction is very skeptical and probably inaccurate as the current price is a whole order of magnitude greater and NANO would need to totally implode to drop that heavily.
Trading Beasts Nano Price Prediction
TradingBeasts algorithm is traditionally much more optimistic in its forecasts and it sees Nano reaching $3.53 by December 2020 which means it will do a solid 4.5x jump from its current price.
Cryptoground predicts that Nano might reach $3.10 by the end of 2020. They even added their version of Nano price prediction 2024, where they stated that Nano might reach $27 by 2024.
Digitalcoinprice gave a slightly positive prediction saying that by 2020 end, Nano might be just a shred more valuable than now – $1.10 per coin.