Ether (ETH) price has rallied by 33% over the last five days and data shows that as this occurred some buyers began to use excessive leverage.
Although this is not necessarily negative, it should be considered a yellow flag as a higher premium on futures contracts for short periods is normal.
Although Ether’s upward movement has been going for an extended period, it was only in February that Ether finally broke the $1,500 psychological barrier and entered price discovery mode.
To assess whether the market is overly optimistic, there are a few essential derivatives metrics to review. One is the futures premium (also known as basis), and it measures the price gap between futures contract prices and the regular spot market.
The 3-month futures should usually trade with a 6% to 20% annualized premium, which should be interpreted as a lending rate. By postponing settlement, sellers demand a higher price and this creates a price difference.
The above chart shows the Ether futures premium shooting above 5.5%, which is usually unsustainable. Considering there’s less than 49 days to the Mar. 26 expiry this rate is equivalent to a 55% annualized basis.
A sustainable basis above 20% signals excessive leverage from buyers and creating the potential for massive liquidations and market crashes.
A similar movement happened on Jan. 19 as Ether broke $1,400 but failed to sustain such a level. That situation helped trigger the liquidations that followed and Ether plunged 27% over the next two days.
A basis level above 20% is not necessarily a pre-crash alert but it reflects high levels of leverage usage from futures contract buyers. This overconfidence from buyers only poses a greater risk if the market recedes below $1,450. That was the price level when the indicator broke 30% and reached alarming levels.
It is also worth noting that traders sometimes pump up their use of leverage in the midst of a rally but also purchase the underlying asset (Ether) to adjust the risk.
Sellers were not liquidated by the move to $1,750
Those betting on $2,000 Ether should be pleased to know that open interest has been increasing all throughout the recent 33% rally. This situation indicates short-sellers are likely fully hedged, taking benefit of the futures premium, instead of effectively expecting a downside.
This week the open interest on Ether futures reached a record $6.5 billion, which is a 128% monthly increase.
Professional investors using the strategy described above are essentially doing cash and carry trades which consist of buying the underlying asset and simultaneously selling futures contracts.
These arbitrage positions usually do not present liquidation risks. Therefore, the current surge in open interest during a strong rally is a positive indicator.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Mars Land NFTs Released on Ethereum, MARS4 Tokens Listed on Bittrex, Sushiswap
Here’s how land plot on Mars can be obtained in a new-gen manner through NFT marketplace
Shortly after the release of an eccentric NFT-focused metaverse, the Mars Land project sees its core native utility asset, MARS4, listed by Tier 1 centralized exchange Bittrex and leading DEX SushiSwap (SUSHI).
Here’s how NFT instruments allow crypto enthusiasts to purchase land on Mars
The Mars4 team behind Mars Land, a novel digital collectibles project, has modeled a 3D map of Mars’ terrain based on the latest NASA data. The total area of Mars’ terrain is divided into 99,888 tokenized plots.
Then, the NFTs associated with segments of Mars Land are available for sale as non-fungible tokens. Mars Land NFTs are minted on Ethereum (ETH) blockchain and can be utilized in various digital economic initiatives.
Namely, Mars NFTs can be locked for staking and utilized for liquidity mining; therefore, Mars Land NFTs evolved into a full-stack instrument of passive income for cryptocurrency enthusiasts with various levels of expertise.
Mars Land NFTs are released in batches; 10,000 tokens are listed per epoch. Starting from Epoch 1, 51% of the income generated is redistributed among current NFT holders. By mid-October, there are more than 50,000 NFTs in circulation.
MARS4 listed on CEXes and DEXes: Why is this crucial?
Mars Land adheres to a dual tokenomic design: its architecture includes NFTs and MARS4 dollars. In total, there are four billion MARS4 tokens in circulation.
MARS4 tokens are now available on Bittrex, a veteran centralized cryptocurrency trading ecosystem. Bittrex offers the widest range of assets amidst all CEXes working in the United States.
Also, MARS4 tokens can be purchased on leading Ethereum-based decentralized exchange, SushiSwap (SUSHI). On SushiSwap (SUSHI), MARS4 tokens can be staked as well.
Ethereum Whales with 1 to 10 Million ETH Add 13.9% Coins As Ether Approaches ATH
Large holders of Ethereum have been buying large amounts of Ether on a steady basis since August, an analytics report says
Top Ethereum wallets have been adding Ethereum steadily since August and keep doing so even as the price is approaching the all-time high reached in May.
Top ETH whales buy another 13.9% of Ether
Santiment on-chain data provider has tweeted that Ethereum wallets holding from 1 to 10 million Ethereum have been purchasing massive lumps of Ether in the past three months.
Over this period, they have acquired 13.9% of the Ethereum supply and keep adding more, even though the Ether price has soared to the $4,200 zone, inching closer to surpassing the May all-time high of Ethereum.
🐳 #Ethereum's top addresses have accumulated $ETH steadily since early August, and it's no surprise to see the #2 asset approaching an #AllTimeHigh of its own. In the past 10 weeks, addresses with 1M to 10M $ETH have accumulated 13.9% more to their bags. https://t.co/OUccwGBDKC pic.twitter.com/tJpZiN5B9Y— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 21, 2021
Non-exchange ETH whales hold 5x more ETH than whales on exchanges
According to a Santiment tweet published earlier in October, the ratio of non-exchange and exchange crypto whales and their ETH holdings now constitutes 5:1.
Crypto whales now hold five times more Ethereum on non-exchange wallets than other whales hold on exchange addresses.
The ETH holdings of the former now total 22.91 million Ethereum compared to only 4.6 million ETH stored on addresses based on crypto exchanges.
Besides, in July, the top 10 Ethereum addresses acquired big amounts of ETH and, back then, they held 20.58% of the second-largest cryptocurrency.
In the meantime, as reported by U.Today earlier, ETH exchange supply has been declining substantially as investors have been withdrawing Ether to cold wallets for long-term storage. This may be one of the main reasons for the growth of the Ethereum price.
Ethereum inches closer to its May peak
On May 12, Ether managed to reach a historic rise, soaring to a $4,362 all-time high. Since then, ETH has dropped twice to the $1,780 low (in June and July). In early August, it surpassed the $3,000 level after the implementation of EIP-1559 (also known as the London hardfork) on Aug. 5.
At the end of last week, Ethereum recovered the $4,000 line and, on Wednesday, it surged to the $4,239 price mark, following Bitcoin hitting an all-time high of $66,930.
Along with the EIP-1559 upgrade, a burning mechanism for Ethereum was rolled out for ETH fees. Since then, large amounts of Ether have been destroyed, which makes the ETH supply smaller and more deflationary, helping its price to rise.
As of Oct. 11, more than 500,000 ETH have been destroyed. Over the past 30 days, around $824 million worth of Ethereum fees have been burned.
Ethereum on the Brink of Catching Fire, According to Analyst Justin Bennett – Here’s His Target and Timeline
Widely followed crypto analyst Justin Bennett thinks Ethereum (ETH) is gearing up for another major rally that could launch the crypto asset by nearly 400%.
In a series of tweets, Bennett explains how Ethereum could rally to $20,000 by January 2022 if Bitcoin (BTC) allows for the right market conditions.ADVERTISEMENT
“If $BTC breaks $65,000 without a significant pullback first, $ETH probably matches it with a close above the May trend line.
Would put ETH on track for $20,000 in January.
This is my trigger to ape in more than I already am.”
Bennett thinks that a $20,000 top for ETH is more likely given that too many traders are calling for a high of $10,000. He contends that most traders underestimate the rush of capital that can flow in during a parabolic run.
That's one reason I think $20k happens.
Every time I post this chart, I get multiple comments from people telling me ETH tops at $10k.
Parabolic moves tend to last longer and push prices higher than most expect.
Time will tell.— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) October 19, 2021
Despite his bullish thesis, Bennett warns traders about a potential dump in the short term that could wipe out overleveraged traders.
“Don’t be surprised if we get a flush this week, potentially toward $53,000 BTC, then all-time highs.
Everyone, including me, is hyper bullish right now, and rightfully so. But that’s when liquidations tend to occur.
Sunday’s $58,900 low is the proverbial line in the sand.”
In response to another crypto trader’s bull run hypothesis, Bennett gives his outlook on the market cycle, expecting a peak Bitcoin price between $207,000 and $270,000 followed by an 80% correction.
Agree with all points except 1, 4, and 8.
1) $BTC ATH probably takes longer than most expect
4) Fibs point to $207k – $270k
8) $50k – $60k bear market low
On point 8, diminishing corrections for a maturing market. 94%, 87%, and 84% so far in order. Probably 80%ish next.— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) October 19, 2021