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BUYING BITCOIN COULDN’T SAVE MICROSTRATEGY SHARES FROM 50% CRASH

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Bitcoin price has had one of its largest corrections since the bull market began, and has since struggled to reclaim $50,000. But the scenario is nowhere near as bad for the cryptocurrency as it is for one of its biggest supporters.

Although the company’s share price had benefitted initially from buying BTC, it wasn’t enough to fend off profit-taking and an eventual now 58% correction in MicroStrategy. Here’s why this could be happening, and what it could also say about the current crypto market trend.

MICROSTRATEGY SHARES FALL 50% AFTER BUYING MORE AND MORE BTC

One of the biggest catalysts kickstarting Bitcoin’s most recent bull run, was undeniably when MicroStrategy first revealed it had purchased a sum of BTC to add to its corporate treasure reserves. From then on, others have followed suit, and CEO Michael Saylor has doubled, and tripled down on his initial purchase.

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The price per BTC has risen accordingly, from just above $10,000 to nearly $50,000 currently. Along with the price of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy shares have risen almost as sharply as investors used the company to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency, and also bet big on the reemerging brand as well.

But as Bitcoin started correcting amidst an uneasy macro environment, MicroStrategy stock shares have fallen by 58%. The chart appears to show a parabola that’s now broken, suggesting that the correction isn’t nearly finished.

microstrategy bitcoin btc

MicroStrategy has nosedived by more than 50% since an early Feb peak | MSTR on TradingView.com

 

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COULD BITCOIN FALL FATE TO THE SAYLOR EFFECT?

As for why MicroStrategy is taking such a beating, it could be due to stock market jitters, that have most left the crypto market unscathed. However, it could be a sign of what’s to come instead.

The orange line superimposed behind the MicroStrategy chart above, is the BTCUSD price chart from Coinbase. Not every peak and trough has followed perfectly, but the path is close enough to suggest there could be some correlation between the two.

If there is a correlation, either Bitcoin is about to correct another 20 to 25%, or there’s something else afoot. As for what other reasons could exist for the divergence, it could come down to more ways to become exposed to BTC now existing in traditional markets than there was a year ago.

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Another alternative is that CEO Michael Saylor’s BTC buying spree could be starting to be viewed as irrational, and former believers are now jumping ship. Saylor, who now adorns “laser eyes” on Twitter is one of the cryptocurrency’s biggest supporters, but doesn’t always place bets at the right time – even though the technology itself he bets on is a sure thing.

Saylor was once deemed the biggest loser of the dot com bubble, but ultimately the internet became widely adopted. Few argue that Bitcoin will eventually do the same, but could this scenario that hit Saylor in the past be playing out once again?

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Bitcoin Funding Rates Touch Same Level As Early September, More Correction To Come?

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Data shows Bitcoin funding rates right now are at the same level as they were in early September. This means the coin may see another flush out similar to how it happened back then.

Bitcoin Funding Rates Float Around Similar Levels To Early September

As per this week’s on-chain report from Glassnode, the BTC futures perpetual funding rate of all exchanges is currently at the level similar to what it was back in early September before the crash.

The “funding rates” is an indicator that shows the premium that traders have to pay each other while holding on to their positions in the perpetual swap futures markets.

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When the metric has negative values, it means that short traders are paying longs, and that many traders are bearish on Bitcoin right now.

Opposite to that, positive funding rates imply that the overall market sentiment is leaning towards bullish and longs are currently paying shorts to keep their positions.

Now, here is a chart that highlights the trend in the value of the indicator over the last six months:

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Bitcoin Futures Funding Rates
Looks like the metric is currently showing highly positive values | Source: Glassnode's The Week On-Chain, Week 43

As the above graph shows, when Bitcoin made its new all-time high (ATH) some days ago, the indicator reached positive local highs.

This means traders started opening many leveraged long positions so that they don’t miss out on the wave of BTC making new ATHs.

However, the price had a correction, which has often been the case during periods of high leverage, and a lot of the excess leverage was flushed out.

Nonetheless, the funding rates are still at similarly high levels right now as in early September. What followed then was the El Salvador crash that took the rates to negative values.

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It’s possible another correction can take place now in order to flush out more of the currently high leverage in the market. Though it’s not a certainty that it will be how it plays out.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $62.5k, down 0.4% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 44% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the crypto over the last five days.

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Bitcoin Price Chart
BTC's price seems to be recovering somewhat from the dip | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Over the last few days, Bitcoin has shown some effort to bounce back from the correction, but in the last couple of days, the crypto has only moved rather sideways. If the futures funding rates are anything to go by, the market may be heading towards another correction soon that will wipe out the excess leverage.

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South Korean pension fund to invest in Bitcoin ETF: Report

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South Korea’s public pension fund, the Korean Teachers’ Credit Union (KTCU), is reportedly looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) via a crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF).

KTCU, one of the largest institutional investors in South Korea, is considering investing in a pure Bitcoin ETF or Bitcoin-linked ETFs in the first half of 2022, local news agency The Korea Economic Daily reported Monday.

According to the report, KTCU is considering investing in several Bitcoin ETF products, including those by South Korean asset management firm Mirae Asset Global Investments. The company launched two ETFs tracking the value of Bitcoin futures via its Canadian subsidiary, Horizons ETFs, in April 2021.

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“As there are some well-made cryptocurrency-linked ETF products by asset managers such as Korea’s Mirae Asset Global Investments, we plan to invest in the ETF products after consultation with domestic asset managers,” an executive at KTCU reportedly said.

The official also mentioned potential investment in a Bitcoin ETF by Mirae Asset’s subsidiary, Global X ETFs, which filed for a Bitcoin ETF with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in July.

According to the report, KTCU is the second-largest institutional investor in South Korea, with $40.2 billion in assets under management. The pension fund has allocated 40% of its investments in alternative assets, 10% domestic and 9% international stocks. KTCU has yet to determine the size and other details of its potential Bitcoin ETF investment.

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The news comes amid global pension funds getting increasingly interested in gaining exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and major companies in the industry. Last week, the Houston Firefighters’ Relief and Retirement Fund reportedly purchased $25 million in Bitcoin and Ether (ETH). Canada’s Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board participated in a $420-million funding round for major crypto exchange FTX, the firm announced on Thursday.

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Elon Musk warns of ‘strong inflationary pressure’ as Tesla mulls Bitcoin payments

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The world faces “strong inflationary pressure” in the short term, and it may persist, warns the world’s richest man.

In a debate about inflation, some of the best-known names in Bitcoin (BTC) voiced unanimous doubts about the state of global monetary policy.

Future of inflation great unknown, says Musk

As even the United States Federal Reserve admits that inflation may be here to stay, the topic has become especially pertinent for Bitcoiners, given the cryptocurrency’s intrinsically deflationary characteristics.

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For Elon Musk, who remains cool when it comes to Bitcoin as a “magic pill” for fiat currency’s ills, inflation is no less of an issue. With over $250 billion in net assets as of this week, potential exposure to devaluating currencies is more of a potential problem than ever.

“I don’t know about long-term, but short-term we are seeing strong inflationary pressure,” he said in a Twitter debate with Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood and MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor.

All were commenting on a previous tweet from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, who described inflation as “happening” and apt to “change everything.”

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Wood, also a firm BTC supporter, noted that monetary velocity, on the contrary, had been slowing since the 2008 global financial crisis, disguising some of the devaluation impact.

Regardless, when all types of products are taken into account, the true cost of dollar printing far outstrips government claims about how inconsequential inflation really is.

“Inflation is a vector, and it is clearly evident in an array of products, services, & assets not currently measured by CPI or PCE,” Saylor wrote

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“Bitcoin is the most practical solution for a consumer, investor, or corporation seeking inflation protection over the long term.”

Federal Reserve balance sheet chart. Source: Federal Reserve

Bitcoin may yet return to Tesla

Musk’s Tesla passed $1,000 per share for the first time this week, helping spur a dramatic increase in his net worth.

Related: Tesla hints it may soon resume support for crypto payments

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, meanwhile, the company left the door open to accepting Bitcoin for its products in the future.

“During the nine months ended September 30, 2021, we purchased an aggregate of $1.50 billion in bitcoin. In addition, during the three months ended March 31, 2021, we accepted bitcoin as a payment for sales of certain of our products in specified regions, subject to applicable laws, and suspended this practice in May 2021,” the 10-Q document reads.

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“We may in the future restart the practice of transacting in cryptocurrencies (‘digital assets’) for our products and services.”

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