After hitting a $43,000 local low on Feb. 28, Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied 28% to retake the $57,000 level on Mar. 10. As the Feb. 21 to Feb. 23 massive $5.9 billion liquidations caused by excessive long leverage seem long gone, futures contracts reached a $20.3 billion all-time high.
This time, as Bitcoin rallied to $57,000, there seems to be no signs of retail FOMO (fear of missing out) buying, at least from the perspective of futures and volume indicators.
While the funding rate stabilized at a neutral level, spot volumes stagnated, signaling that the recent growth in the open interest on futures is healthy.
As shown above, the aggregate futures open interest on BTC has risen to a new all-time high at $20.3 billion. This event is usually perceived as bullish, even though longs and shorts are matched at all times. However, a yellow flag should be raised whenever an increase of this metric is followed by a high funding rate on perpetual futures.
The funding rate is neutral for n
Perpetual futures are the preferred instrument for retail leverage traders due to their liquidity and hassle-free expiry date management.
To keep a balanced risk-exposure, derivatives exchanges charge either perpetual futures longs (buyers) or shorts (sellers) a fee every eight hours. Known as the funding rate, this indicator will turn positive when longs are the ones demanding more leverage.
Longs with insufficient margin are usually liquidated as their positions are forcefully terminated, so excessive leverage is the primary catalyst for substantial price corrections.
As depicted above, the 8-hour fee reached 0.20% in late-February, equivalent to 19.7% per month. This rate is quite costly for those long on perpetual futures, but the effect vanished as the Bitcoin price crashed below $48,000 on Feb. 22.
On the other hand, the current 0.05% funding rate per 8 hours is standard and expected in healthy markets. This indicator equates to a 4.6% monthly fee and shouldn’t be problematic to leveraged longs.
Spot exchange volume didn’t spike
Had retail FOMO kicked in as Bitcoin approached its $58,300 all-time-high, spot exchange volumes would have been positively impacted.
As shown above, the most recent $8 billion 5-day volume average is pretty much flat compared to the past couple of weeks. Thus, there is no evidence of retail investors desperately buying spot BTC or perpetual futures contracts.
This data suggests room for further price appreciation from Bitcoin as institutional clients continue to heavily stack BTC regardless of its 70% gain year-to-date.
Although multiple analysts may suggest that this activity would trigger fast buying from retail investors, there’s no definitive proof of this at the moment.
Digital Currency Group’s decision to buy $250 million of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares will likely bring some relief, and the same can be said for the upcoming launch of JPMorgan’s crypto exposure basket.
These developments could be interpreted by retail as a ‘stamp of approval’ from one of the world’s largest banks.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The Cycle Started, Mike Novogratz Says – Bitcoin Boom Is Here; Jack Dorsey Boosts BTC’s Price
Mike Novogratz is one of the essential names in the crypto space which is celebrating the booming price of Bitcoin.
Check out what he had to share with his followers and Twitter fans:
Crypto wealth is approx 50bps of global wealth. That means if you don’t have at least 1/2 percent invested in crypto you are short the global benchmark. Most institutions are still at 0. As they move in, that number will go to 1 then 2 then….
The cycle has started.— Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) October 16, 2021
Someone hopped in the comments section and said this; ‘Anyone who has not yet embarked on the crypto band wagon is a simple minded idiot who knows nothing about markets, freedom or wealth creation.’
Jack Dorsey boosts the price of BTC
It’s been also revealed that Jack Dorse said that Square could build a BTC mining system – this obviously triggered a more massive price race for the king coin.
At the moment of writing this article, BTC is trading in the green and the king coin is priced at $61,118.15.
CNBC online publication just noted that Square CEO Jack Dorsey said late on Friday the company is considering jumping into BTC mining business.
Dorsey tweeted that the company is considering a “bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide.”
Square is considering building a Bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide. If we do this, we’d follow our hardware wallet model: build in the open in collaboration with the community. First some thoughts and questions.— jack⚡️ (@jack) October 15, 2021
Dorsey’s goal would be to make crypto mining more accessible. We suggest that you check out the complete thread that Dorsey shared on his social media account in order to learn all the available details.
Pantera Capital’s Dan Morehead: Bitcoin (BTC) Already Up 100% in This Bull Run
How big is median increase in Bitcoin (BTC) price in bullish market phases?
As Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims $62,000 level, Dan Morehead, CEO of the first-ever cryptocurrency-focused VC firm in the U.S., shares the comprehensive statistics of the last six bull runs for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) price doubled in 87 days: Bull Run 2021
According to the latest tweet by Mr. Morehead, the Bitcoin (BTC) price witnessed a 2x increase in the first 87 days of the ongoing bullish wave.
#bitcoin at $61,000 is 2x from where we mark the start of this new bull market in July.
For perspective, the median bull cycle went up 15x over 300 days.
More thoughts on the state of the market here: https://t.co/g46sxp7Qe6 pic.twitter.com/Iy96sJvZzO— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) October 15, 2021
Unlike many other experts, Mr. Morehead identifies two separate “bull run” phases in 2020-2021. During the previous one, between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, it took 394 days for Bitcoin (BTC) to increase its price 13x and print a new all-time high.
According to his infographic, the most impressive rally ended with a 106x increase of the orange coin’s price in 2015-2017.
That said, the median Bitcoin (BTC) price bull run lasted for 300 days and increased the “king coin’s price” by 15x.
Will Bitcoin ETF mark the top of the BTC cycle?
At the same time, according to “The Next Price Era” letter issued by Pantera Capital on Oct. 6, 2021, the hotly-anticipated approval of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs is listed amidst the possible “sell the news” events.
Mr. Morehead noticed that the launch of CME Bitcoin Futures and Coinbase direct listing triggered painful bear markets:
Will someone please remind the day before the bitcoin ETF officially launches? I might want to take some chips off the table.
As covered by U.Today previously, similar statements were made by CNBC’s Jim Cramer.
The seasoned analyst also revealed his plans to “cash out” 50% of his Ethereum (ETH) bags.
Bitcoin Will Significantly Underperform Altcoin Market As New Crypto Price Era Unfolds: Pantera Capital’s Dan Morehead
The founder and chief executive officer of Pantera Capital says that investors can expect altcoins to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in the long term.
In a recent edition of Pantera’s Blockchain Letter, the head of the digital asset management firm outlines Dan Morehead’s key quotes from the SALT 2021 conference in New York. During the conference, Morehead said that even though his company has greatly profited from BTC, he emphasized that most future crypto gains will come from altcoin investments.ADVERTISEMENT
“My perspective is: Bitcoin has been amazing – Pantera Bitcoin Fund is up 67,000% since inception. However, I think the majority of future gains will be from tokens outside of Bitcoin. I know that sounds heretical to some people here, but that’s my professional opinion.”
Morehead compares the rise of Bitcoin and its competitors to that of the tech industry boom during the late 1990s.
“It’s like saying in 1998 that [the] majority of future tech gains would come from outside Microsoft.
At the time, Microsoft was worth $218 billion, Apple $3.5 billion, Amazon was $2.2 billion. Google and Facebook were zero – they didn’t even exist. In the years since Microsoft did great – it went up 10x. However, 80% of the tech gains in these five stocks came from outside Microsoft.
That’s the view I have here – I think BTC is going to go up a ton – like 10x. It’s a great investment…[but] I think the broader portfolio is going to outperform.”
At time of writing, BTC has a market cap of $1.156 trillion while all altcoins combined have a market cap of $1.327 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.