International body Financial Action Task Fork (FATF) has issued new guidance for decentralized applications (DApps). Its implications could directly affect the DeFi sector and could have consequences for DApp “operators” such as Uniswap, Sushiswap, and others.
If you're a shareholder of Uniswap (or MakerDAO), then you're likely a VASP. And VASPs (i.e. Virtual Asset Service Providers) are responsible for setting up anti-money laundering controls.
— John Paul Koning (@jp_koning) March 20, 2021
According to the agency’s definition and its standards, a DApp is software. However, the “entities involved” with the DApp can be Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP). The guidance claims:
(…) a person that conducts business development for a DApp may be a VASP when they engage as a business in facilitating or conducting the activities previously described on behalf of another natural or legal person. The decentralization of any individual element of operations does not eliminate VASP coverage if the elements of any part of the VASP definition remain.
Attorney Gabriel Shapiro addressed potential consequences for the blockchain industry if the recommendations are implemented. Shapiro said:
Writing & deploying a smart contract (=free speech) is different from running a business with that smart contract (regulated).
Claiming that FATF recommendations could “wreak havoc” in venture finance and the blockchain industry if adopted, Shapiro added:
“a one-time sale of a VA makes you a money services business” thing has never made a lick of sense and seems inconsistent with FinCEN’s 2019 guidance.
Although FATF can only make recommendations or suggestions, these are internationally adopted by many regulators. Therefore, Shapiro believes they can have a real effect on the blockchain industry if u operators, i.e. Uniswap, are blacklisted by the body. Shapiro added:
I love DeFi and I’m very anti-KYC etc. But “repeal these laws just for DeFi because it makes people more free by providing plausible deniability” is not going to be persuasive to a person who believes the laws in question are good ones.
Member countries can apply sanctions, prohibitions and take other measures if the FATF suggests that any entity has “lost control” over compliance and money laundering prevention. Legal expert Stephen Palley said:
as some of us have been saying since the dawn of time, muh decentralization is apparently not yet a persuasive strategy to avoid AML/KYC obligations.
UNI on a 30-day rally
Data from Tradingview indicates that UNI has made significant gains (51.6%) over the last month. Currently, UNI is trading at $32.71. Although its performance in the last 24 hours is negative with losses of 1.3%.
The good performance can be attributed to the release of Uniswap’s third iteration. Without a fixed deployment date, Uniswap v3 has caused great hype among its users. Uniswap inventor Hayden Adams is expected to provide details on the upgrade soon.
If I have to go another week without publicly announcing details of Uniswap v3 I might go insane
— hayden.eth 🦄 (@haydenzadams) March 19, 2021
Uniswap price congestion below Ichimoku cloud could set up UNIU breakout to $4
- Uniswap price consolidation below the Cloud continues but hints at higher moves soon.
- Short-sellers are likely to get squeezed on a move above the Cloud.
- Downside risks remain despite new bullish momentum.
Uniswap price has spent the past 17 days trading below the Cloud. However, no solid follow-through to cause a capitulation move has occurred. This could be a warning sign to any short-sellers that a bear-trap may be developing.
Uniswap price will spike to $45 if it can break near-term resistance
Uniswap price has two cluster of resistances it must break before converting into a full-blown bull market. The first resistance cluster is Kijun-Sen and Senkou Span B, between $23.00 and $23.50. This is the most challenging resistance cluster to cross due to Senkou Span B. Senkou Span B represents the most substantial support/resistance level within the Ichimoku system.
Closing above Senkou Span B would be a powerful signal to market participants that sentiment quickly shifts to the buy-side. Additionally, it will likely mean an easier time for Uniswap price to crack above the second resistance cluster. The second resistance cluster is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) between $25.00 and $25.60. Therefore, Uniswap price needs to close at or above $26.25 to fulfill all Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout requirements. If the break-out is confirmed, Uniswap should have a relatively easy time pushing higher towards $45.
UNI/USDT Daily Ichimoku ChartHowever, downside risks remain. Uniswap price is extremely bearish with the close below the Cloud and the Chikou Span below the Cloud. Any drop below the $17.75 value could trigger a flash crash to the prior 100% Fibonacci expansion at $12.45.
Uniswap price eyes 20% upswing if UNI can clear this crucial barrier
- Uniswap price is on a journey to retest $25 after the recent downswing.
- On-chain metrics hint at smooth sailing ride apart from the massive resistance at $20.84.
- A daily close below $17.75 will invalidate the bullish thesis.
Uniswap price reverses its downtrend and is on its way to set up higher highs. The bullishness around UNI comes as investors are expecting t UNI price to see a quick run-up as the crypto market also sees a minor upswing.
Uniswap price to continue its ascent
Uniswap price has rallied roughly 11% over the past 24 hours after it sliced through the $18.73 swing low. This upswing is likely to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) that extends up to $21.13 and make a run at the $22.36 resistance level.
The buy stop liquidity resting above these highs will be the market makers’ first target. Beyond this area is another FVG, extending from $22.49 to $24.51. So, investors can expect UNI to breeze through this area with ease. Resting above the $24.78 is another set of buy stops that the market makers will target.
This run-up will constitute a 20% surge in Uniswap price.
UNI/USDT 4-hour chart
The technicals are pointing at a bullish outlook for Uniswap price, and on-chain metrics also hint at a similar outlook. Take, for example, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model.
This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased UNI over the past month. Since this indicator is hovering around -5%, it indicates that investors are at a loss. This area is where market participants accumulate the assets, suggesting it is an excellent place to see UNI price grow.
UNI 365-day MVRV chart
While things are looking up for Uniswap price, there is one hindrance that bulls will face in its upward journey. IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model shows a massive cluster of underwater investors at $20.84. Here, roughly 6,680 addresses purchased nearly 183 million of UNI.
These “Out of the Money” investors are likely to pose a threat to the upswing as they could sell their holdings to breakeven. Therefore, clearing this level will remove the sell-side pressure and trigger an upswing for Uniswap price.
UNI IOMAP chart
A rejection at $20.84 that results in Uniswap price correcting to $18.73 will be questionable and indicate that sellers are running amok. In such a situation, if UNI produces a daily close below $17.76, it will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis.
Votes are in: over 7 million Uniswap holders in favor of Polygon’s deployment proposal
The votes are in and the Uniswap community has spoken. Interestingly, almost 100% of the votes on a proposal to deploy Uniswap on Polygon were in favor of the integration. Thus, clearly highlighting the explosive popularity that layer-2 protocols have been receiving of late.
Almost a week ago, Polygon developers had put forward a proposal on Uniswap’s governance portal. This, in order to pitch their goals of integration to the larger Uniswap community. The first phase of the governance process was initiated on 23 November. It encompassed the Temperature Check Poll, which tried to gauge an initial consensus on whether the proposal is even worth going ahead with.
Reportedly, over 7.79 million Uniswap holders voted yes to deploying Uniswap V3 to the Polygon PoS chain. Well, only 25,000 favorable votes were required for the proposal to move on to the next phase.
Polygon stated that “this is the right moment for this deployment to happen.” Since it could drastically decrease the transaction fee and time that users spend on the network. Especially, while interacting with Ethereum. Besides, expanding the decentralized exchange’s user base and revenues through scalability solutions.
The top DEXs like Sushiswap and Aave have already been deployed on Polygon. Well, the L2 protocol is ready to even allocate huge capital for this integration. Primarily, due to Uniswap’s respectable market position.
This includes participation in the design and execution of liquidity mining campaigns. In addition to the promotion of Uniswap V3 as a “money lego.”
Now that the temperature check poll has delivered a favorable outcome, the proposal will be moving to the next stage. It will be the “Consensus Check.” It requires 50,000 affirmative votes to be passed to the final stage of governance. Well, the purpose of the Consensus Check is to start a formal discussion by creating a new poll based on the feedback from the Temperature Check.
When one Twitter user pointed out that it could take months for the deployment to go live, Polygon co-founder Mihailo Bjelic replied,
“It can be done much quicker, assuming the governance process finishes successfully.”
Furthermore, with the overwhelming support from the Uniswap community, a delay in this process would rather be unlikely at this point.
In fact, owing to the soaring gas fee and longer transaction time, many are migrating to Layer-2 protocols. It scales the network and drastically increases its throughput. Not to forget, Polygon has turned out to be one of the most successful of those, with around $4.74 billion total value locked at press time.