Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been in retreat, down 20% since the recent all-time high at $62,000 in mid-March. As crypto markets are frequently volatile, this may very well be another normal pullback within the current bull cycle.
Corrections are needed to generate strength for further upward momentum as markets can’t go up in a straight line. Additionally, a record $6 billion expiration of options is expected on March 26, which often brings some volatility.
It is also quite common for the market’s momentum to shift momentum once the options expiration date comes and goes.
$53K level has to become support to gain bullish momentum
The 4-hour chart shows an apparent downtrend since the recent all-time high at $62,000 with bearish support/resistance flips.
Regardless, Bitcoin’s price has rejected the critical resistance zone at $56,500 in the latest rally after Tesla announced it has started accepting (and holding) BTC in the United States for its vehicles. As that price level couldn’t break for more upside, renewed tests of the $53,000 support zone were inevitable.
Given that the $53,000 support zone has been tested multiple times in recent weeks, it became likely that this level may not hold this time around. Therefore, the price collapsed on March 25 and dropped to as low as $51,500.
Hence, Bitcoin’s price must now regain the $53,200-$53,800 area to revive any bullish momentum in the near term. If that doesn’t happen, it’s likely to see more downside to the next support zone between $49,500 and $51,500.
Overall structure still heavily bullish
The daily chart for BTC/USD still paints a bullish outlook showing consistent higher lows and higher highs. In that perspective, a correction to as low as $44,000 would still mean that the bullish construction remains valid.
In that regard, Bitcoin’s price currently has massive support between $49,500 and $51,500 and is unlikely to fall further.
Additionally, the bearish divergence isn’t confirmed until the market starts to make lower lows and lower highs below $44,000, as previously stated.
Dollar showing strength
The U.S. Dollar is showing strength once again as the yields are also running up substantially. So it’s not surprising to see risk assets falling, namely commodities and cryptocurrencies as well.
A rebounding USD is typically bearish for crypto markets, particularly in the short term. But this latest uptick in the dollar is likely temporary because it’s entering strong resistance. Moreover, the structure still shows lower lows and lower highs, meaning that a trend reversal should be expected relatively soon.
Thus, if the dollar’s momentum is halted, more upside for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market becomes likely.
A possible scenario for Bitcoin
The 4-hour chart for Bitcoin shows a downtrend, in which a retest of the $53,200-$53,800 region will likely be rejected. Therefore, more downside is the most likely scenario in this current price construction in the near term.
The green zone shown in the chart above is the area to watch for a potential bullish divergence or immediate bounce. If such a move occurs, the ideal scenario for the bulls would then be to establish a higher low.
Once such a higher low is established, Bitcoin’s price will be primed to continue climbing with the next points of interest at $68,000 and $82,000.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The Cycle Started, Mike Novogratz Says – Bitcoin Boom Is Here; Jack Dorsey Boosts BTC’s Price
Mike Novogratz is one of the essential names in the crypto space which is celebrating the booming price of Bitcoin.
Check out what he had to share with his followers and Twitter fans:
Crypto wealth is approx 50bps of global wealth. That means if you don’t have at least 1/2 percent invested in crypto you are short the global benchmark. Most institutions are still at 0. As they move in, that number will go to 1 then 2 then….
The cycle has started.— Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) October 16, 2021
Someone hopped in the comments section and said this; ‘Anyone who has not yet embarked on the crypto band wagon is a simple minded idiot who knows nothing about markets, freedom or wealth creation.’
Jack Dorsey boosts the price of BTC
It’s been also revealed that Jack Dorse said that Square could build a BTC mining system – this obviously triggered a more massive price race for the king coin.
At the moment of writing this article, BTC is trading in the green and the king coin is priced at $61,118.15.
CNBC online publication just noted that Square CEO Jack Dorsey said late on Friday the company is considering jumping into BTC mining business.
Dorsey tweeted that the company is considering a “bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide.”
Square is considering building a Bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide. If we do this, we’d follow our hardware wallet model: build in the open in collaboration with the community. First some thoughts and questions.— jack⚡️ (@jack) October 15, 2021
Dorsey’s goal would be to make crypto mining more accessible. We suggest that you check out the complete thread that Dorsey shared on his social media account in order to learn all the available details.
Pantera Capital’s Dan Morehead: Bitcoin (BTC) Already Up 100% in This Bull Run
How big is median increase in Bitcoin (BTC) price in bullish market phases?
As Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims $62,000 level, Dan Morehead, CEO of the first-ever cryptocurrency-focused VC firm in the U.S., shares the comprehensive statistics of the last six bull runs for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) price doubled in 87 days: Bull Run 2021
According to the latest tweet by Mr. Morehead, the Bitcoin (BTC) price witnessed a 2x increase in the first 87 days of the ongoing bullish wave.
#bitcoin at $61,000 is 2x from where we mark the start of this new bull market in July.
For perspective, the median bull cycle went up 15x over 300 days.
More thoughts on the state of the market here: https://t.co/g46sxp7Qe6 pic.twitter.com/Iy96sJvZzO— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) October 15, 2021
Unlike many other experts, Mr. Morehead identifies two separate “bull run” phases in 2020-2021. During the previous one, between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, it took 394 days for Bitcoin (BTC) to increase its price 13x and print a new all-time high.
According to his infographic, the most impressive rally ended with a 106x increase of the orange coin’s price in 2015-2017.
That said, the median Bitcoin (BTC) price bull run lasted for 300 days and increased the “king coin’s price” by 15x.
Will Bitcoin ETF mark the top of the BTC cycle?
At the same time, according to “The Next Price Era” letter issued by Pantera Capital on Oct. 6, 2021, the hotly-anticipated approval of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs is listed amidst the possible “sell the news” events.
Mr. Morehead noticed that the launch of CME Bitcoin Futures and Coinbase direct listing triggered painful bear markets:
Will someone please remind the day before the bitcoin ETF officially launches? I might want to take some chips off the table.
As covered by U.Today previously, similar statements were made by CNBC’s Jim Cramer.
The seasoned analyst also revealed his plans to “cash out” 50% of his Ethereum (ETH) bags.
Bitcoin Will Significantly Underperform Altcoin Market As New Crypto Price Era Unfolds: Pantera Capital’s Dan Morehead
The founder and chief executive officer of Pantera Capital says that investors can expect altcoins to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in the long term.
In a recent edition of Pantera’s Blockchain Letter, the head of the digital asset management firm outlines Dan Morehead’s key quotes from the SALT 2021 conference in New York. During the conference, Morehead said that even though his company has greatly profited from BTC, he emphasized that most future crypto gains will come from altcoin investments.ADVERTISEMENT
“My perspective is: Bitcoin has been amazing – Pantera Bitcoin Fund is up 67,000% since inception. However, I think the majority of future gains will be from tokens outside of Bitcoin. I know that sounds heretical to some people here, but that’s my professional opinion.”
Morehead compares the rise of Bitcoin and its competitors to that of the tech industry boom during the late 1990s.
“It’s like saying in 1998 that [the] majority of future tech gains would come from outside Microsoft.
At the time, Microsoft was worth $218 billion, Apple $3.5 billion, Amazon was $2.2 billion. Google and Facebook were zero – they didn’t even exist. In the years since Microsoft did great – it went up 10x. However, 80% of the tech gains in these five stocks came from outside Microsoft.
That’s the view I have here – I think BTC is going to go up a ton – like 10x. It’s a great investment…[but] I think the broader portfolio is going to outperform.”
At time of writing, BTC has a market cap of $1.156 trillion while all altcoins combined have a market cap of $1.327 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.