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Ethereum maintains bullish run as Bitcoin struggles to bounce back, JPMorgan explains why

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  • Ether has shown more resilience in the recent liquidity shock.
  • The altcoin has been projected to continue its impressive run by America’s largest bank.

Ethereum has in the last 12 months surged by 1,283 percent, and in the last 30 days gained 50 percent. This has sent the price to an all-time high of $2,736. Bitcoin on the other hand has drifted away from its all-time high of $64,000 in the last couple of weeks and lost some of its dominance. In the last 30 days, the digital asset has lost over 6% of its value to trade at a current price of $54,000. According to JPMorgan, the market run by Ethereum can be linked to three main factors:

Ethereum demand

According to JPMorgan, Ethereum has finally overtaken Bitcoin in terms of demand for its utility. Ethereum was designed to facilitate transactions at a higher speed than Bitcoin on the public blockchain. Today, this is paying off. Ether is more liquid at 11 percent compared to Bitcoin at 4 percent according to the bank.

“In a market with significantly higher spot turnover, it is plausible that the underlying base of long exposure is less reliant on leverage in the form of futures and swaps,” the bank stated.

Liquidity shock in the crypto market

Last week, the cryptocurrency market was hit by a liquidity shock in which only a few survived. Bitcoin was massively affected compared to Ether. According to JP Morgan, the liquidity shock came from the derivative market, largely affecting Bitcoin futures and causing a 23 percent ex-ante open interest. The net long liquidation of Ether since the market pulled back was 17 percent. JPMorgan lauded the dramatic comeback by Ether compared to the rate at which the other cryptocurrencies added value in their recovery process.

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Data from CoinMarketCap confirms that Ether has gained 10 percent value in the last 7 days while Bitcoin has gained just 0.02 percent in the same period. BNB, one of the best-performing assets in the last couple of weeks has also gained just 2 percent value in the same period.

Less reliance on derivative markets

JPMorgan explained that Ethereum has shown less reliance on the derivatives market than Bitcoin. This is laudable in a market with significantly higher spot turnover.

The bank observed that Ether has the potential to outperform Bitcoin in the future. Ether has been tipped to enter the $3,000 price zone as the intermediary-term momentum is strong. Similarly, the long-term momentum looks bullish. The early month breakout from the technical point of view is said to be a bullish bias beyond the coming weeks.

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South Korean pension fund to invest in Bitcoin ETF: Report

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South Korea’s public pension fund, the Korean Teachers’ Credit Union (KTCU), is reportedly looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) via a crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF).

KTCU, one of the largest institutional investors in South Korea, is considering investing in a pure Bitcoin ETF or Bitcoin-linked ETFs in the first half of 2022, local news agency The Korea Economic Daily reported Monday.

According to the report, KTCU is considering investing in several Bitcoin ETF products, including those by South Korean asset management firm Mirae Asset Global Investments. The company launched two ETFs tracking the value of Bitcoin futures via its Canadian subsidiary, Horizons ETFs, in April 2021.

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“As there are some well-made cryptocurrency-linked ETF products by asset managers such as Korea’s Mirae Asset Global Investments, we plan to invest in the ETF products after consultation with domestic asset managers,” an executive at KTCU reportedly said.

The official also mentioned potential investment in a Bitcoin ETF by Mirae Asset’s subsidiary, Global X ETFs, which filed for a Bitcoin ETF with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in July.

According to the report, KTCU is the second-largest institutional investor in South Korea, with $40.2 billion in assets under management. The pension fund has allocated 40% of its investments in alternative assets, 10% domestic and 9% international stocks. KTCU has yet to determine the size and other details of its potential Bitcoin ETF investment.

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The news comes amid global pension funds getting increasingly interested in gaining exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and major companies in the industry. Last week, the Houston Firefighters’ Relief and Retirement Fund reportedly purchased $25 million in Bitcoin and Ether (ETH). Canada’s Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board participated in a $420-million funding round for major crypto exchange FTX, the firm announced on Thursday.

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Elon Musk warns of ‘strong inflationary pressure’ as Tesla mulls Bitcoin payments

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The world faces “strong inflationary pressure” in the short term, and it may persist, warns the world’s richest man.

In a debate about inflation, some of the best-known names in Bitcoin (BTC) voiced unanimous doubts about the state of global monetary policy.

Future of inflation great unknown, says Musk

As even the United States Federal Reserve admits that inflation may be here to stay, the topic has become especially pertinent for Bitcoiners, given the cryptocurrency’s intrinsically deflationary characteristics.

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For Elon Musk, who remains cool when it comes to Bitcoin as a “magic pill” for fiat currency’s ills, inflation is no less of an issue. With over $250 billion in net assets as of this week, potential exposure to devaluating currencies is more of a potential problem than ever.

“I don’t know about long-term, but short-term we are seeing strong inflationary pressure,” he said in a Twitter debate with Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood and MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor.

All were commenting on a previous tweet from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, who described inflation as “happening” and apt to “change everything.”

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Wood, also a firm BTC supporter, noted that monetary velocity, on the contrary, had been slowing since the 2008 global financial crisis, disguising some of the devaluation impact.

Regardless, when all types of products are taken into account, the true cost of dollar printing far outstrips government claims about how inconsequential inflation really is.

“Inflation is a vector, and it is clearly evident in an array of products, services, & assets not currently measured by CPI or PCE,” Saylor wrote

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“Bitcoin is the most practical solution for a consumer, investor, or corporation seeking inflation protection over the long term.”

Federal Reserve balance sheet chart. Source: Federal Reserve

Bitcoin may yet return to Tesla

Musk’s Tesla passed $1,000 per share for the first time this week, helping spur a dramatic increase in his net worth.

Related: Tesla hints it may soon resume support for crypto payments

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, meanwhile, the company left the door open to accepting Bitcoin for its products in the future.

“During the nine months ended September 30, 2021, we purchased an aggregate of $1.50 billion in bitcoin. In addition, during the three months ended March 31, 2021, we accepted bitcoin as a payment for sales of certain of our products in specified regions, subject to applicable laws, and suspended this practice in May 2021,” the 10-Q document reads.

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“We may in the future restart the practice of transacting in cryptocurrencies (‘digital assets’) for our products and services.”

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Bitcoin bull market ‘2nd leg has started,’ says BTC price model creator

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Bitcoin (BTC) marking a new high of $67,000 last week has opened the possibility of hitting $100,000 by the end of this year.

PlanB, creator of the popular Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, called Bitcoin’s price retracement from the $60,000-level the “2nd leg” of what appeared like a long-term bull market.

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In doing so, the pseudonymous analyst cited S2F, which anticipates Bitcoin to continue its leg higher and reach $100,000 to $135,000 by the end of the year.

The price projection model insists that Bitcoin’s value will keep on growing until at least $288,000 per token due to the “halving,” an event that takes place every four years and reduces BTC’s issuance rate by half against its 21 million supply cap. 

Bitcoin after the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halving. Source: PlanB

Notably, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings so far: in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

Each event decreased the cryptocurrency’s new supply rate by 50%, which was followed by notable increases in BTC price. For instance, the first two halvings prompted BTC price to rise by over 10,000% and 2,960%, respectively.

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The third halving caused the price to jump from $8,787 to as high as $66,999, a 667.50% increase. So far, S2F has been largely accurate in predicting Bitcoin’s price trajectory, as shown in the chart below, leaving bulls with higher hopes that Bitcoin’s post-halving rally will have its price cross the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin S2F as of Oct. 26. Source: PlanB

PlanB noted earlier this year that Bitcoin will reach $98,000 by November and $135,000 by December, adding that the only thing that would stop the cryptocurrency from hitting a six-digit value is “a black swan event” that the market has not seen in the last decade.

An 80% crash later

Despite the high price projections, Bitcoin can still see big corrections in the future. PlanB thinks the next crash could wipe at least 80% off Bitcoin’s market capitalization, based on the same S2F model.

Related: COVID-19 vaccine will spark Bitcoin ‘crash’ — Rich Dad Poor Dad author

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“Everybody hopes for the supercycle or the ‘hyperbitcoinization’ to start right now and that we do not have a big crash after next all-time highs,” the analyst told the Unchained podcast, adding.

“As much as I would hope that were true, that we don’t see that crash anymore, I think we will. […] I think we’ll be managed by greed right now and fear later on and see another minus 80% after we top out at a couple hundred thousand dollars.”

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But not everyone thinks the next correction will be as dramatic as the previous ones. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, said in mid-October that the next Bitcoin price drop will be less than 80%, citing a consistent drop in selling sentiment after each halving cycle.

Last week, Bitcoin established a new record high at around $67,000 following a 53% rally in October so far. But the new highs prompted profit-taking among traders, resulting in retests of the $60,000 support level.

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