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Cardano Price Forecast: ADA eyes 30% decline to flash crash lows of $0.95

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  • ADA/USD teases a head-and-shoulders breakdown on the 4H chart.  
  • The Cardano price risks a sharp drop towards Wednesday’s low of $0.95.
  • RSI has room to drop further, as ADA bears sustain below 200-SMA.

Cardano (ADA/USD) is falling for the second straight day on Friday, resuming this week’s bearish streak following Thursday’s temporary reversal.

The fifth most widely traded cryptocurrency is looking to retest the $1 mark, as the crypto space remains in a sea of red after China intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrencies.

Cardano is down nearly 40% from its all-time highs recorded at $2.4652 a week ago.

ADA/USD: Poised for another sell-off on a sustained breach of this key support

As observed on Cardano’s four-hour chart, Friday’s sell-off received additional impetus after the 21-simple moving average (SMA) pierced the 100-SMA from above, representing a bearish crossover.

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The recent volatile price action has carved out a head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation, with the ADA bears on the verge of confirming a pattern breakdown.

The ADA price awaits a four-hourly candlestick closing below the H&S neckline at $1.4549, which would open doors towards the pattern target measured at $0.95. Wednesday’s flash crash low coincides at that level.

The sellers have found acceptance below the critical 200-SMA at $1.5339, adding credence to a potential move lower while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) looks south towards 30.00.

ADA/USD: Four-hour chart

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On the flip side, the pattern neckline support now resistance could offer initial resistance, above which the 200-SMA will get retested.

A sustained break above the latter could re-ignite the recovery towards the downward-pointing 21-SMA at $1.6741.

Ahead of that, the ADA bulls need to scale the $1.50 psychological level convincingly.

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What’s Cardano’s IOG team doing in Africa?

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The IOHK team has ambitious plans for Cardano in Africa and is meeting with blockchain ecosystem members there to expand the presence. Entrepreneurs and politicians in various African countries will meet the IOG team of Cardano regarding plans to deploy more blockchain solutions in that region.

Charles Hoskinson recently had a speech during this week’s meetings that had some interesting points about the plans of the Cardano ecosystem in Africa.

Expanding the Developed World

Helping developing countries is one of the main goals of many blockchain projects. The products can help these countries and their citizens connect faster to the developed world and benefit from numerous opportunities.

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Cardano is among the most active blockchains in this section, with a considerable focus on Africa. Many teams from the ecosystem are currently in Africa, working with stakeholders to find better ways to help this region accelerate its growth. The IOG team is one of them.

One of the main reasons for the IOG team to be in Africa is the opportunity to shape the infrastructures using blockchain technology. Africa is on the path to upgrade. New systems can be deployed in countries and shape the future with more powerful tools.

Another subject that was covered in the last speech by Hoskinson was games. He talked about future games that can be more practical for gamers using blockchain concepts like tokens, especially NFTs. He said about the interesting concept of metaverse:

“Ten years ago, no one had a concept of the metaverse, and then Ready Player One comes out, and we’re like ‘Oh yeah, we get it.’ Probably 100 million people will have jobs inside the metaverse by 2030 or 2035. There’s no geographic bias to that. Most of them will probably be in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America.”

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Creating jobs in African countries is another focus area for Cardano’s IOG team. They plan to help entrepreneurs in various counties so they can create jobs themselves.

Healthcare has always been one of the biggest challenges in Africa. Cardano’s IOG team is tackling this area by talking with various entrepreneurs and politicians to find a reliable solution, especially based on blockchain.

Hoskinson says blockchain can offer practical solutions for healthcare data so citizens will earn money from their data. It’s what we don’t see in the current situation, and governments can easily trade people’s data without their consent.

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The main reason for Cardano’s IOG team’s presence in Africa is to find ways to offer solutions for a faster technological revolution in that region. Now that many countries in that region are trying to develop faster, and innovative technology like blockchain can help them deploy infrastructures more reliable and secure.

The IOHK team has ambitious plans for Cardano in Africa and is meeting with blockchain ecosystem members there to expand the presence. Entrepreneurs and politicians in various African countries will meet the IOG team of Cardano regarding plans to deploy more blockchain solutions in that region.

Charles Hoskinson recently had a speech during this week’s meetings that had some interesting points about the plans of the Cardano ecosystem in Africa.

Advertisement

Expanding the Developed World

Helping developing countries is one of the main goals of many blockchain projects. The products can help these countries and their citizens connect faster to the developed world and benefit from numerous opportunities.

Cardano is among the most active blockchains in this section, with a considerable focus on Africa. Many teams from the ecosystem are currently in Africa, working with stakeholders to find better ways to help this region accelerate its growth. The IOG team is one of them.

One of the main reasons for the IOG team to be in Africa is the opportunity to shape the infrastructures using blockchain technology. Africa is on the path to upgrade. New systems can be deployed in countries and shape the future with more powerful tools.

Advertisement

Another subject that was covered in the last speech by Hoskinson was games. He talked about future games that can be more practical for gamers using blockchain concepts like tokens, especially NFTs. He said about the interesting concept of metaverse:

“Ten years ago, no one had a concept of the metaverse, and then Ready Player One comes out, and we’re like ‘Oh yeah, we get it.’ Probably 100 million people will have jobs inside the metaverse by 2030 or 2035. There’s no geographic bias to that. Most of them will probably be in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America.”

Creating jobs in African countries is another focus area for Cardano’s IOG team. They plan to help entrepreneurs in various counties so they can create jobs themselves.

Healthcare has always been one of the biggest challenges in Africa. Cardano’s IOG team is tackling this area by talking with various entrepreneurs and politicians to find a reliable solution, especially based on blockchain.

Advertisement

Hoskinson says blockchain can offer practical solutions for healthcare data so citizens will earn money from their data. It’s what we don’t see in the current situation, and governments can easily trade people’s data without their consent.

The main reason for Cardano’s IOG team’s presence in Africa is to find ways to offer solutions for a faster technological revolution in that region. Now that many countries in that region are trying to develop faster, and innovative technology like blockchain can help them deploy infrastructures more reliable and secure.

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Can Cardano ever compete with Ethereum on the smart contracts front

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The lack of trust while engaging with different parties is one of the biggest challenges that people outside the “smart world” face. Due to the lack of transparency, people end up spending a lot of time and money on intermediaries, before finalizing an agreement.

Smart contracts, on the other hand, provide a solution to the aforementioned problem by eliminating intermediaries and making the system even more transparent.

The Ethereum-Cardano dilemma

Now, Ethereum has been in the space since its inception. It is, arguably, the uncrowned prince of the smart contract space. With time, however, competition has been on the rise, with Cardano being one of the latest ones to step into the arena.

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Ethereum’s soaring gas fee has always been a major cause of concern for people from the community. This week alone, the fee has crossed 250 gwei and 350 gwei a couple of times.

In fact, when compared to the weekly average, the fee, at the time of writing, was at a fairly higher level.

Source: ethereumprice.org

In effect, Cardano-based smart contracts can take advantage of the aforementioned vulnerability of Ethereum. If it successfully manages to do so, then smart contract clients wouldn’t hesitate to swap their networks.

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Well, Cardano is obviously new to this space and as they say – New utility means new adoption. However, there’s hardly anything for Cardano to show yet. The number of contracts executed has been quite low.

As per Statista’s chart, the rounded transactional volume did witness a massive spike post the Alonzo hard fork. However, it hasn’t been able to sustain those levels. In fact, it has been falling sharply over the past few days.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that Cardano has entered this space at the right time. It can leisurely experiment and see what works and what doesn’t because it has the luxury of time that other platforms might not necessarily have when they decide to join later.

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Source: Statista

Cardano is the first blockchain to be developed using peer-reviewed research and evidence-based methodologies. In effect, several analysts have already started claiming that its output efficiency is higher and better than that of Ethereum.

Now, a new bridge is being built from Ethereum to Cardano. Using this bridge, NFT creators will be allowed to easily move their non-fungible tokens from the energy-intensive Ethereum blockchain to Cardano. In retrospect, this would be great for the latter network’s adoption.

Another X-factor

Development activity is another key yardstick that can be used to assess where different networks/protocols stand.

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Well, Cardano has been able to maintain fairly high levels on the development activity chart, relative to Ethereum. Even at the time of writing, Cardano had an upper hand when compared to its counterpart.

Thus, going forward, Cardano does have a golden chance to give Ethereum neck-to-neck competition.

Source: Santiment

However, to emerge as a winner, Cardano would have to provide top-notch cross-chain interoperability, fast transactions, and predictable fees, among other services and facilities.

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It has started off in the right direction, but only time will tell if it can surpass Ethereum’s popularity.

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Cardano price at make-or-break point while ADA remains indecisive

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  • Cardano price is traversing a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that a 16% explosive move is likely.
  • A decisive close above the setup’s lower trend line will knock ADA down to the $1.99 to $2.10 demand zone.
  • Transactional data shows that the resistance barriers are hogging the bulls’ path.

Cardano price has been on a tight consolidative move for more than a month. However, this coiling up is a precursor to an explosive move. While on-chain metrics are all hinting at a bearish outlook, technicals suggest that there is hope.

Cardano price shows lack of buyer interest

Cardano price has set up three distinctive lower highs and five higher lows since September 21. Connecting these trend lines shows that the price action is squeezed and reveals the formation of a symmetrical triangle.

Since this pattern has no directional bias, it could break out either way. The target for this technical formation is obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point.

While the situation might seem black and white, it is not. Investors can expect Cardano price to breach the lower trend line first and enter the demand zone ranging from $1.99 to $2.10. 

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ADA/USDT 9-hour chart

ADA/USDT 9-hour chart

IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows that the immediate yet stable support level is $2.11, where roughly 147,87 addresses purchased a whopping 2.85 billion ADA.

Although the bullish move assumes that ADA bounces off the $1.99 to $2.10 demand zone, a decisive close below this area will put these investors “Out of the Money,” further increasing the selling pressure and invalidating the bullish thesis. 

In this case, ADA might continue its descent and head toward its intended target at $1.78.

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ADA GIOM chart

ADA GIOM chart

Further adding credence to the bearish outlook is the 60.7% decline in the number of large transactions worth $100,000 or more.

This on-chain metric serves as a proxy of high-net-worth individuals and can often help spot bullish trends. However, over the past six months, the number of such transactions has dropped from $3,500 to $1,370, indicating a reduction in institutional money flows.

ADA large transaction chart

ADA large transaction chart

While things are looking gloomy for the Ethereum killer, the demand zone ranging from $1.99 to $2.10 could be the salvation for bulls.

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If the buying pressure increases, pushing ADA to re-enter the symmetrical triangle, there is still a chance that Cardano price will make a run at the upper trend line. A decisive close above $2.24 will put an end to the bearish thesis and indicate a bullish breakout from the symmetrical triangle, propelling ADA by 16% to $2.62.

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