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Ethereum

Dead cat bounce? Ethereum jumps 20% while ETH inflows to exchanges soar

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On May 20, the price of Ether (ETH) surged from $2,443 to almost $3,000 — a 13.55% climb, according to Coinbase data. The strong intraday upside move appeared a day after ETH’s 27.61% price crash. It thus raised hopes that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization would eventually recover in the days ahead.

But the prices declined nevertheless, leaving an impression that the upside recovery in the Ethereum market on May 20 was a mere “dead cat bounce” — a small, brief rebound in the price of a falling asset that acts as a bearish continuation pattern despite beginning like a bullish reversal one.

On May 24, the ETH/USD exchange rate painted a similar recovery candle. The pair jumped by nearly 20% to $2,474, in a rebound move that followed a 37% decline from May 20’s closing rate. The strong bullish rebound suggested another dead cat bounce in making, especially as on-chain indicators painted a bearish picture for Ether.

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ETH short-term bias remain bearish despite bullish rebound Monday. Source: TradingView
Ether exchange inflow forecasts trouble
Lex Moskovski, the chief investment officer at Moscow-based banking service Moskovski Capital, alerted that the total Ether inflow across all crypto exchanges reached a yearly high of 199,947 ETH on Sunday.

In retrospect, many traders prefer to keep their tokens offline, away from their exchange’s custody. Therefore, they only transfer the digital assets to exchanges when they intend to either sell or exchange them for other tokens. Analytics portals track these capital flows to determine the traders’ short-term market bias.

Ether total transfer volume to all exchanges hits year-to-date peak. Source: Glassnode
The record ETH inflow into all the crypto exchanges, says Moskovski, should make bulls careful about their upside bets.

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“This is the biggest inflow we had this year,” he noted. “If it isn’t an internal [transaction], be careful.”
Bias Conflict in Ethereum Market
Last week, traders sold off their cryptocurrency holdings on fears that Elon Musk’s Tesla would do the same.

The billionaire investor went into a Twitter spat with some of the leading crypto influencers in the week ending May 19, eventually hinting that Tesla would dump its entire $1.5 billion worth of BTC holdings. He later refuted this saying Tesla did not sell any Bitcoin.

China also fueled the crypto market’s sell-off further by reiterating its intention to crack down on digital currencies last week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department also announced its plans to regulate larger cryptocurrency transactions, and Musk kept posting cryptic mixed signals.

Traders moved top altcoin markets in the range of 10%-30% in either direction based on such updates, pulling Ether into the swing trades alongside.

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Ether price analysts also posted conflicted ETH/USD scenarios. A chart shared by pseudonymous market pundit, the Crypto Cactus, showed the pair at risk of crashing towards $1,700 should it slips below an interim support range around the $2,000-area.

Ethereum shows bias conflict, according to analyst Crypto Cactus. Source: Twitter

“ETH is currently hovering around 2,200 USDT, with 2,400 USDT as a short-term resistance level,” detailed Robbie Liu, a researcher at OKEx crypto exchange. “Meanwhile, ETH/BTC has not seen a significant rebound.”

Data showed a spike in open interest, noting that investors are opening leveraged positions in the Ether derivative market after witnessing a long squeeze of over $1.87 billion on May 19. The total number of outstanding futures contracts surged from $5.1 billion to $5.7 billion in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum futures OI is trending lower in the short-term. Source: Bybt.com

Derivative traders are majority short on ETH/USD, with their Long/Short ratio lurking at 0.98 as of noon UTC. Ether is currently trading roughly 44% below its record high of $4,384.

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Ethereum

One Ethereum Competitor Is Showing Strength As Bitcoin Loses Ground, According to Crypto Trader Benjamin Cowen

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Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says an Ethereum rival is showing strength as Bitcoin pulls back from its all-time high.

Cowen tells his 576,000 YouTube subscribers that AVAX, the native token for the smart contract platform Avalanche, is “weathering the storm relatively well.”ADVERTISEMENT

The 12th-ranked asset by market cap is trading at $68.28 at time of writing, up over 5% in the past 24 hours and more than 20% in the past week, according to CoinGecko.

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Cowen notes that AVAX is trading well above both its 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Taken together, the two metrics are what Cowen refers to as the “bull market support band.”

“We also have some wiggle room in the sense that we are above the bull market support band of the AVAX/USD valuation. The 20-week SMA is at $35.85 and the 21-week EMA is at $43.47. What that tells you is that Avalanche has been performing pretty well for the last several weeks. 

A lot of coins are right above their bull market support band, and they haven’t been performing as well recently. A lot of these things can have some type of seasonality as the money ball just jumps around from project to project, and right now, clearly, AVAX is showing a decent amount of strength.” 

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Cowen doesn’t predict that AVAX will have a strong move against Bitcoin “in the next month or so,” but he does say that Avalanche can increase in value in terms of its relationship to the US dollar in the short term.

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Ethereum

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH bulls set sights on new record high targeting $6,000

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  • Ethereum price is gearing up for a new all-time high as two significant bullish chart patterns have transpired.
  • The governing technical patterns present optimistic targets at $6,015 and $6,365.
  • A daily close above $3,960 would add credence to the bulls’ aspirations toward $6,000.

Ethereum price is hovering around a key support level which has previously acted as resistance for ETH, as the bulls catch their breath before the token resumes its rally. As long as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization holds above $3,960, a 60% surge is still on the radar. 

Ethereum price eyes 60% ascent

Ethereum price has printed two major bullish technical patterns on the daily chart, an ascending parallel channel and a cup-and-handle pattern. The former chart pattern indicates that ETH has been consistently reaching higher highs and higher lows since mid-June, presenting an optimistic outlook for the token.

Based on the first prevailing chart pattern, ETH is likely to tag the upper boundary of the channel at $6,015, coinciding with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, representing a 48% climb.

The cup-and-handle chart pattern suggests that the projected target for Ethereum price is at $6,365, forecasting a 60% rally. While the two governing technical patterns establish an optimistic outlook for ETH, the token may be confronted by a headwind at its all-time high at $4,369, corresponding to the middle boundary of the parallel channel.

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Additional hurdles may emerge at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $5,092, then at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $6,015. 

Given the reinforcement of the two optimistic chart patterns presented on the ETH daily chart, retracements for Ethereum price may not be significant even if selling pressure arises. 

ETHUSDT

ETH/USDT daily chart

Ethereum price will discover immediate support at the support trend line at $3,960, then at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,797. The following line of defense will emerge at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,710, then at the 50-day SMA at $3,453 before eventually dropping toward the lower boundary of the ascending parallel channel at $3,349, which meets the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

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If Ethereum price fails to hold above the aforementioned levels of support, the bullish outlook may be voided, prompting ETH to plunge lower toward the 100-day SMA at $3,137.

ETH bulls should aim for a daily close above $3,960 to reinforce commitment for the bullish target to be on the horizon.

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NFTs

Whales hoarding NFTs? 80% of Ethereum NFTs bought by only 17% of Addresses

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  • Around 16 percent of addresses snatched up 80.98 percent of all NFTs on Ethereum between April and September.
  • Moostream argues that there is still room in the NFT space for ‘small investors.’ 

Moonstream, the open-source blockchain analytics platform, has revealed that about 80 percent of all non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the Ethereum blockchain between April 1 and September 25 were owned by a minority of wallets. According to the October 21 report, four-fifths of NFTs in that time period was owned by 17 percent of wallets.

The reported analysed data from 7,020,950 million NFT transactions on Ethereum in a period of close to six months. It revealed that a significant number (80.98 percent) of NFTs on the blockchain were owned by whales, NFT platforms and exchanges which make up 16.71 percent of all wallets. The rest were distributed amongst the remaining 83.29 percent. This trend seems to follow the Pareto Principle or 80/20 rule as pointed out by one Reddit user. This is a principle that asserts that 80 percent of consequences are as a result of 20 percent of the causes.

It is worth noting that the data used in the report is based exclusively on the Ethereum blockchain and not Layer 2 networks or centralised Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). The report explains this in it’s ‘Caveats’ section.

The Ethereum NFTs dataset is constructed purely from events on the Ethereum blockchain. It does not include any data from Layer 2 networks like Polygon. Nor does it include any data from centralized APIs like the OpenSea API. It does not account for events or data from any non-ERC721 smart contracts associated with these platforms on the Ethereum blockchain. This means that two parties could exchange a positive amount of funds for a transfer off-chain and conduct the transfer on-chain and we would not be able to distinguish the transfer from a gift. It is also possible for a single transaction to involve multiple NFT transfers.

Still early for ‘small-time’ investors and individuals?

While the unevenness in NFT distribution is glaringly obvious, Moonstream insists that there is still room for participation from small investors.

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What this data shows us is that the Ethereum NFT market is open in the sense the vast majority of its participants are small-time purchasers who likely make their purchases manually. There are few barriers to entry for those who wish to participate in this market.

Contrary to what many may believe, purchasing and holding NFTs is relatively easy. Individuals can open a wallet on an NFT marketplace and fund it. After this, they can easily bid on available NFTs. Some popular NFT marketplaces are OpenSea, Rarible and Foundation.

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