- XRP price is approaching a supply barrier extending from $1.09 to $1.18.
- Ripple might retrace to the support level at $0.84 before it resumes an uptrend.
- On-chain metrics indicate no immediate threat to the optimistic outlook but reveal more room to the upside.
XRP price shows a slow down of its momentum after the recent impulse wave. Therefore, minor retracement or sideways movement seems likely before Ripple restarts its rally.
XRP price prepares for the next leg up
XRP price saw a 62% upswing to $1.06 from the swing low created on May 23 at $0.65. This massive climb shows signs of slowing down as it approaches the supply zone, ranging from $1.09 to $1.18. Due to the extent of the recent impulse wave, Ripple will likely retrace to support level at $0.84 before continuing its ascent.
Such a move will allow the buyers to recuperate their momentum and enable the remittance token to come back stronger. Under these conditions, XRP price is likely to rise to $1.32.
If the buying pressure continues to maintain at high levels beyond the said level, XRP price may soar another 18% to test $1.56.
Clearing these obstacles will allow Ripple a path to retest the supply barrier created in 2018.
XRP/USD 6-hour chart
Supporting this optimistic hypothesis is Santiment’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This fundamental index is used to determine the profit/loss of investors that purchased XRP in the past month.
At the time of writing, this metric was in the ‘opportunity zone’ at -22.22%, suggesting that the short-term holders are panic-selling and allowing the long-term holders to accumulate more. Thus, MVRV portrays a bullish outlook for Ripple.
XRP 30-day MVRV chart
Furthermore, the whale transaction count, a metric that tracks transfers worth $100,000 or more. A spike in this metric indicates that whales are either looking to book profits or reallocate their funds, which is a bearish signal.
Such transfers are currently hovering around 15, a 48% decrease from the recent uptick on May 24, suggesting no immediate threats despite the recent rally.
XRP whale transaction count chart
Investors should note that if the bullish thesis explained above depends on the fact that XRP price recoils from the support level at $0.84. However, a breakdown of this barrier will suggest an increased selling pressure and invalidate the optimistic narrative.
Under these conditions, Ripple may retrace toward the recent swing low at $0.65 or tag $0.642, the upper boundary of the demand barrier below it.
SEC v. Ripple Labs: Agency opposes motion to seal documents citing ‘influence’
The SEC v. Ripple Labs lawsuit is in the news today after yet another crucial development. According to the latest updates from the court, the regulators have responded in opposition to Ripple’s motion to seal transcripts of audio and video recordings from internal meetings.
As per the filing shared by @CryptoLawUS, the SEC claimed that the documents “have the tendency to influence the Court’s ruling on the discovery dispute before it.” The tables turned for Ripple when SEC added that “no countervailing business or privacy interests outweigh their disclosure to the public.”
On 30 August, the SEC had filed a motion to compel the production of some audio and video-taped recordings after Ripple failed to disclose them during discovery. Ripple agreed to produce these recordings, along with “all recorded meeting by the custodians of such meeting, meeting name, and other criteria” for responsive documents.
The SEC later filed another motion to compel Ripple on 1 October to conduct a “reasonable search.” Here, the intent was to find more responses through recordings of meetings at which the agreed-upon custodians spoke.
The SEC has been trying to make the documents public since it found statements made by Ripple CEO Garlinghouse and other key Ripple employees. The filing added,
“These transcripts contain statements by Garlinghouse and other key Ripple employees that bear directly on whether Ripple’s offers and sales of XRP are “investment contracts” and therefore securities under SEC v. W.J. Howey Co., 328 U.S. 293, 298-99 (1946), and whether Garlinghouse and Larsen had the requisite scienter for purposes of the SEC’s aiding-and-abetting claims.”
Although the concerning statements from the transcripts have been redacted, according to the SEC, Ripple is also seeking to seal excerpts of Garlinghouse’s deposition testimony. The same apparently pertains to the frequency of “all-hands” meetings, along with a certain email from the CEO.
The SEC also argued that the transcripts of the recordings are Judicial Materials. Ones that should be disclosed to the public. Curiously, attorney Jeremy Hogan believes that the recording may be the backbone of the SEC’s case.
Nevertheless, only the Court’s decision will reveal the importance of the recordings for the people, Ripple, and the SEC.
Ripple and British firm collaborating in country’s futuristic CBDC project
- Ripple has joined the board of the UK’s Digital Pound Foundation. The foundation is pushing for the adoption of a digital pound in England.
- The Bank of England recognizes that a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will enhance financial access. The electronic pound is, therefore, the cornerstone of an equitable financial system in the UK.
Ripple says it has agreed to join the Digital Pound Foundation’s (DPF) board. DPF is a non-profit that’s pursuing the creation and adoption of the electronic pound in England.
The firms’ policy chief, Susan Friedman, will sit on the DPF board. Ripple’s joining of the foundation adds to the engagements it’s having with different nations on CBDCs. In those engagements, it has been supporting its central banks with its technical and management expertise
Ripple acknowledges the UK’s role in spearheading prudent advancement of the digital assets space. Consequently, it views the latter’s pursuit of the digital pound as a rational conclusion of those efforts.
Ripple backs the digital pound
Friedman has expressed Ripple’s excitement at the new working relationship. She reiterated that her company was happy to support DPF in creating and executing the digital pound.
Again, she’s confident that DPF will assist Britain in achieving a long-term all-embracing settlement system.
The digital pound will anchor the UK’s push for an inventive digital society. Collaboration with other digital assets will guarantee the nation’s place at the apex of the evolving digital ecosystem.
Today, many central banks are experimenting with sovereign-issued cryptocurrencies. These include CBDCs.
The Bank of England (BOE) hasn’t lagged in those endeavors too. It’s working to find solutions to the challenges of creating, adopting, and managing the electronic pound.
BOE envisions the e-pound as the key to increasing households’ and businesses’ access to funds. It also recognizes the significance of the advancing digital payments sector.
In it, the UK can look forward to a settlement system that’s capable and timely, and affordable. Such a system isn’t only viable but also has wide application.
There’s a need for broader collaboration to get there, though. The foundation understands this fact, and that’s why it’s seeking the input of other players in this space. It holds that such associations will guarantee UKs lead as the hub of financial innovation.
Ripple’s expertise in CBDC development
As they continue adopting CBDCs, central banks must grapple with several factors that may impact these projects. These include privacy, interoperability, and independence. The three are central to the banks moving funds in an affordable, dependable and timely manner.
Here’s where Ripple comes in. Its expertise in the creation and application of CBDCs creation and is a boon for the e-pound project.
Last month, Ripple said it was teaming up with Bhutan’s Central Bank, the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA), in a similar project. In the deal, the former would help RMA test an international and bulk settlements system for its e-Ngultrum.
The digital Ngultrum is Bhutan’s CBDC version of its fiat currency. Ripple is supplying the Blockchain infrastructure besides the CBDC solution for this project.
Bhutan banks on this partnership to boost digital payments. It’ll also strengthen its efforts towards increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, it’ll help the nation maintain its pledge to sustainability.
Today, Bhutan remains the world’s only carbon-neutral country. Ripple’s CBDC solution is also carbon neutral. As such, it is the perfect fit for Bhutan’s e-payments and sustainability goals.
Ripple Price Analysis: XRP/USD pair is bearish for the next 24 hours
The Ripple price is bearish today, with the market price dropping below $1.10 support after a brief upside test. As a result, we anticipate XRP/USD to continue to decline later today.
Ripple price movement in the last 24 hours: XRP continues to retrace
On the other hand, XRP/USD is currently ranging in a tight range of $1.07 to $1.13, with little movement for the past day. Trading volume has dropped by 2.36 percent, putting it in the sixth position globally with $87 billion in trading volume.
XRP/USD continues to retrace after a brief test of upside while the market tested the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of $1.10 as resistance, the Ripple price is currently trading between $1.07 and $1.13 with little movement over the past day. There appears to be no strong indication of which way the price will go in this tight range, but we anticipate it to move down later today.
XRP/USD 4-hour chart: XRP may test further downsides today
Ripple’s price has been subjected to bearish momentum over the past several hours, which is likely to result in more losses today on the 4-hour chart.
XRP/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Ripple’s price increased significantly in the first part of October, with strong bullish momentum. Ripple’s cost rose by around 40% in only a week, from its previous low of about $0.90 to the new swing high of $1.23.
The price of XRP/USD reversed on October 10, ending a bullish trend. In a severe decline, bears took XRP/USD downward toward the previous swing low of $1.10. Around yesterday’s support, a consolidation occurred.
Following a modest reaction higher to $1.12 this afternoon, it appears that bears are regaining control, which suggests that bulls are regaining strength. However, another significant drop over the previous hours suggested that we may see additional selling later today.
However, Ripple’s price consolidated for a few days before making another strong upward move that took it back above $1.20. The upside move put Ripple’s price back into the bullish momentum that would see it continue to rise until coming under pressure once again yesterday.
At this point, we anticipate XRP/USD to continue to decline later today and test support at $1.10 that comes in the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent upward movement. It is also worth mentioning that Ripple’s price will face resistance at $1.20, the upper limit of the range between $1.07 and $1.13, where it now faces opposition from both moving averages as well as a Fibonacci retracement level of 38 percent.
In conclusion, Ripple’s current bearish momentum is likely to see XRP/USD continue to decline later today towards test support at $1.10.
Ripple Price Analysis: Conclusion
Ripple has been bearish since Wednesday when it fell more than 35% in a single day. Ripple is currently bearish, as the price has continued to drop, and a new downside has been revealed over the past several hours after a modest recovery from $1.10 support. As a result, we anticipate the XRP/USD pair will continue to decline later today.