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Ethereum, altcoins risk more downside than Bitcoin if BTC losses $30K, warns analyst

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Altcoin traders and investors should look for cover if Bitcoin (BTC) undergoes major price declines.

So believes Filbfilb, an independent market analyst and co-founder of Decentrader trading suite. In a tweet published late Friday, the pseudonymous entity said a 30% crash in the Bitcoin market could prompt altcoins to drop twice as harder.

When Bitcoin consolidated between $50,000 and $60,000 in the March-May period, altcoins exploded. Similarly, the recent correction in the Bitcoin market, which witnessed the flagship cryptocurrency falling from circa $65,000 to as low as $28,000, also had altcoins crash; still, to the levels, they held as support when Bitcoin was stuck in the $50K-$60K range.

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Bitcoin price vs. altcoin market cap. Source: TradingView, Filbfilb

Filbfilb noted that altcoins have been facing a so-called “catchup risk,” hinting that even a small downside shift in the Bitcoin market could move altcoins twice lower. The statement appeared as Bitcoin prices plunged to $30,173 following a 15.58% week-to-date downside correction.

“[Altcoins], therefore, carry significantly more downside risk than Bitcoin with [BTC/USD] threatening lows,” tweeted Filbfilb. “If bitcoin were to fall lower, losing another 30% worst case, I’d expect [altcoins] to correct to do 2x worse from here.”

“If bitcoin were to fall lower, losing another 30% worst case, I’d expect alts to correct to do 2x worse from here.”

Bitcoin’s declines across May and June pushed down its year-to-date performance to 5.71%. Meanwhile, while top-cap altcoins fell in tandem, their YTD returns fared far better.

For instance, Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped by a little over 60% from its mid-April peak of $4,384. Nevertheless, its YTD returns came out to be 141% as of publishing time. Similarly, Dogecoin’s YTD profits were 4,112% even after falling by almost 80% from its record high of $0.76.

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Bitcoin YTD vs. altcoins YTD in 2021. Source: Messari

So it seems, altcoins provided better profit-taking opportunities to their holders than Bitcoin did. As a result, investors could offset their losses in the Bitcoin market by simply selling their altcoin profits for fiat and/or rotate the funds back into BTC.

Bitcoin and $20K

Of late, Bitcoin has been able to avoid a deeper pullback below $30,000 despite repeated attempts.

Bitcoin consolidation continues inside the $30K-40K area. Source: TradingView.com

Many analysts, including Mercuryo founder Alexander Vasiliev, sees Bitcoin’s bullish resilience as a signal that it would eventually breakout above $40,000 and rise to its previous high levels near $64,000 in the mid to long term.

However, some analysts who were previously bullish on Bitcoin have flipped their bias in the wake of the cryptocurrency’s latest bearish correction.

For instance, Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of the multi-billion dollar investment firm Guggenheim Partners, told CNBC on Friday that he expects Bitcoin to fall to $15,000.

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In February, just as Bitcoin was tearing through $30,000-resistance, Minerd has predicted its price to hit $600,000.

Clem Chambers, the chief executive of financial analytics website ADVFN.com, also flipped bearish for Bitcoin, noting that Bitcoin could fall back towards $20,000 owing to capitulation sentiment. He wrote in his SeekingAlpha article:

“The next leg down looks to be here, and it will be the final big move down leading to a repeat of the crypto winter we have endured before.”

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Ethereum

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH bears contemplate a drop to $2450

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  • ETH price is building up downside pressure while clinging to the 200-SMA support.
  • RSI remains flat below the midline, keeping the sellers cheerful.
  • A drop towards $2450 remains in the offing if the 200-SMA caves in.

Ethereum, the no.2 widely traded digital asset, remains under pressure for the second straight day, consolidating Friday’s steep losses.

ETH price snapped its two-day rebound from monthly lows of $2651, as it got sold-off into the latest Chinese crackdown.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Friday declared all cryptocurrency transactions as illegal, imposing a ban, which saw over $400 million worth of tokens liquidated within 24 hours. Ethereum lost as much as $420 at one point before recovering to $2930.61 at the close.

At the press time, ETH/USD is trading almost unchanged on the day around $2900, having bounced off from daily lows at $2800.

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Ethereum price defending 200-SMA but for how long?

Ethereum’s 12-hour chart shows that the price is wavering in a narrow range, remaining in close vicinity of the daily troughs, as ETH price is not out of the woods yet.

Having witnessed good two-way volatility recently, ETH price maintains its range play, with the bearish 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3185 capping the upside.

Meanwhile, the 200-SMA at $2734 continues to offer support to ETH bulls. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holding below the midline and bear cross in play, the path of least resistance appears to the downside.  

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Note that the 21-SMA breached the 100-SMA from above, confirming a bear cross on the said time frame on Thursday.

Once the 200-SMA gives way, a test of the horizontal trendline support at $2450 cannot be ruled out. The $2400 round number would be next on the sellers’ radars.

ETH/USD: 12-hour chart

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at the 21-SMA, above which the horizontal 100-SMA at $3305 will be put to test.

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ETH buyers will seek fresh entries above the latter, paving the way towards the downward-pointing 50-SMA at $3418.

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ETH Locked in DeFi on Historic Highs: Details

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Total number of Ethers utilized in various decentralized finance protocols spiked over 7.3 million

After a massive plunge in TVL, a decentralized finance ecosystem has recovered to observe some breathtaking metrics.

7,830,000 Ethers locked in DeFi

The net number of Ethers locked in various decentralized finance protocols spiked 12% in the past ten days. On Sept. 15, 2021, this indicator bottomed at a two-month low of about 6.95 million Ethers.

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More than 7.8M Ethers are locked in DeFi segment
Image by DeFi Pulse

As displayed by mainstream decentralized finances segment tracker DeFi Pulse, the total quantity of Ethers in all indexed protocols nets 7.8 million Ethers.

Aave Finance (AAVE), Compound Finance (COMP), Instadapp, Uniswap (UNI), Curve Finance (CRV) are the most popular protocols in terms of TVL.

The five leading DeFis are responsible for almost 6.9 million Ethers, or 85% of net TVL, tracked by DeFi Pulse.

Yearn.Finance (YFI), Rari Capital (RGT) are on fire

In the last 24 hours, two DeFi protocols, Yearn.Finance (YFI) and Rari Capital (RGT), registered double-digit gains.

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At the same time, the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract targets almost the same numbers. As of Sept. 25, 2021, it has amassed 7.77 million Ethers.

Amid the current Ethereum (ETH) price dip, this massive amount of value is equal to $22.7 billion. To provide context, this sum can be compared to the market capitalization of Telenor, Credit Suisse, Suzuki and Warner Music Group.

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Ethereum Network Activity is Stagnant while ETH Price Hovers Below $3k Level!

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Ethereum price fell amid a broad selloff in the cryptocurrency market, fueled by fears of a brewing property bubble collapse in China. 

There’s a lot of fear and uncertainty in the crypto market right now. With news that China has officially declared all cryptocurrency transactions illegal, the Ethereum price, like the rest of the market, is under attack.

Ethereum Price Analysis:

The Major altcoin has lost 5.76% in the last 24 hours. Although it is now seeking to construct a firm support base at $3000. ETH Price had a tumultuous start, rising to an intraday high of $3,114 in the early morning before reversing course. 

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To reach the first big resistance level at $3,149, Ethereum would have to break past the $2,942 pivot. Support from the larger market, on the other hand, would be required for Ethereum to reclaim the $3,100 barrier. Unless there is a sustained crypto rally, the first significant resistance level and Friday’s high of $3,160.48 will likely act as a ceiling on the upside.

Network Activity is Stagnant

According to Santiment, most speculators are shifting away from Ethereum (ETH) in pursuit of better options with larger returns on investment. 

Exchanges are seeing an influx of Ethereum, implying that people are selling their holdings in response to the recent marketwide crypto slump. 

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Santiment claims that network growth has been static for several months before the price of ETH fell.

This is attributed to growth in other Layer-1 initiatives like Avalanche (AVAX), Fantom (FTM), and Cosmos (ATOM), as well as decreased speculation in the non-fungible token (NFT) market.

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