Derivatives data shows that Ether (ETH) traders are feeling less bullish when compared to Bitcoin (BTC). Even though the altcoin captured a nearly 200% gain in the first half of 2021 versus Bitcoin’s modest 22% price increase, traders seem to be more affected by Ether’s recent underperformance.
Institutional flow also backs the decreased optimism seen in Ether derivatives, as ETH investment vehicles suffered record outflows this past week while Bitcoin flows began to stabilize. According to data from CoinShares, Ether funds experienced a record outflow of $50 million this past week.
Take notice of how Ether is underperforming Bitcoin by 16% in June. The London hard fork is scheduled for July, and its core proposal — dubbed as EIP-1559 — will cap Ethereum’s gas fees. Therefore, the price action could be related to unsatisfied miners as the network migrates out of Proof-of-Work (PoW).
For this reason, Ether investors have reason to fear because uncertainties abound. Perhaps miners supporting a competing smart-contract chain or some other unexpected turn of events could further negatively impact Ether price.
Whatever the rationale for the current price action, derivatives indicators are now signaling less confidence when compared to Bitcoin.
Ether’s December futures premium shows weakness
In healthy markets, the quarterly futures should trade at a premium to regular spot exchanges. In addition to the exchange risk, the seller is ‘locking up’ funds by deferring settlement. A 4% to 8% premium in the December contracts should be enough to compensate for those effects.
A similar effect occurs in almost every derivatives market, although cryptocurrencies tend to present higher risks and have higher premiums. However, when futures are trading below this range, it signals that there is short-term bearish sentiment.
The above chart shows the Bitcoin December futures premium recovering to 3.5% while Ethereum contracts failed to follow. While both assets displayed a neutral-to-bearish indicator, there’s evidence that the altcoin investors are less optimistic about a short-term recovery.
Another leg down will do even more harm to altcoins
Another thesis that could negatively impact Ether’s premium is the impact of a potential negative 30% performance from Bitcoin. Filbfilb, an independent market analyst and the co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite, said that a 30% crash in the Bitcoin could prompt altcoins to drop twice as hard.
Clem Chambers, the chief executive of the financial analytics website ADVFN, also predicted another potential leg down, which would repeat the late-2018 crypto winter period. Chambers claims Bitcoin could capitulate and fall back towards $20,000.
While the overall market sentiment is neutral-to-bearish, it seems sensible to predict a more daunting scenario for Ether, including uncertainties from the transition to Proof-of-Stake (POS).
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Ethereum Price (ETH) Inches Closer to the $4k Mark! Institutional Investors seem Bullish
Over the last 24 hours, the market has been in the green. Ethereum is up 4.04 percent, while Bitcoin is up 3.74 percent. Early on, the Ethereum cryptocurrency entered a little bullish phase, and the price of Ether appears to have breached the level of $3,800.
In the previous few days, ETH has made a significant advance, and the coin is currently approaching a test of the $4k threshold.
A several-day sluggish retreat from the barrier was visible to the $3,400 mark. A firm foundation was built earlier this week after multiple efforts to break lower.
According to popular analyst Michael van de Poppe, December is frequently the ideal time to buy altcoins.
He claims that If history repeats itself, we might see a 200 percent run on $ETH/BTC towards the ATH region from there, but first there will be a larger pullback while #Bitcoin continues to perform well.
December is often the best period to buy #altcoins.
If history repeats, we might be getting a run of 200% on $ETH/BTC towards the ATH region from there, but first a heavier correction while #Bitcoin does well. pic.twitter.com/Op0grUEq3L— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 15, 2021
ETH Price to $4000!
Fundstrat, an independent financial research firm, has some exciting news for Ethereum fans. According to the firm’s technical research, Ethereum is on the verge of a massive bull run that will push it past previous all-time highs.
“Ethereum Looks To Be Starting To Gain On Bitcoin After A Near One-Month Period Of Underperformance Throughout September.”
The crypto’s soaring market share, according to Fundstrat, will propel it over the psychologically significant $4,000 threshold. A convincing move above $4,030 would bolster the bulls, putting the coin on track for a new all-time high of $4,950.
Crypto exchange Coinbase recorded a withdrawal of 400k Ethereum yesterday, according to on-chain data. This could be a hint of institutional investment activity, which would be good for the coin.
Approximately 400k ETH (1.5 billion at the current exchange rate) was removed from the crypto exchange Coinbase yesterday, according to a CryptoQuant report.
The fact that institutional investors are bullish on ETH could spell disaster for the cryptocurrency. If ETH is to advance to the next level, it will require a significant amount of capital, which normally means that whales such as institutional investors will be required to participate.
Ethereum Forecast October 18 — 22, 2021
Ethereum ETH/USD ends the trading week at 3847 and continues to move as part of the rise and the formation of the ”Triangle” pattern. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend for ETH/USD. Prices went up from the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from cryptocurrency buyers and a potential continuation of growth from the current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a price correction and a test of the support level near the area of 3055. Where can we expect a rebound and a continuation of the rise in the rate and value of Ethereum with a potential target above the level of 4755.
Cryptocurrency Ethereum Forecast October 18 — 22, 2021
An additional signal in favor of raising the ETH/USD quotes in the current trading week on October 18 — 22, 2021 will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. Cancellation of the growth option for the cryptocurrency value in the current trading week will be a fall and a breakdown of the level of 2845. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area and a continued fall in ETH/USD quotes with a potential target below the level of 2235. Confirmation of the rise in the Ethereum cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the resistance area and closing of quotes above the level of 4355 , which will indicate a breakdown of the upper border of the ”Triangle” model.
Cryptocurrency Ethereum Forecast October 18 — 22, 2021 implies an attempt to test the support area near the level of 3055. Where can we expect a rebound and continued growth of the cryptocurrency to the area above the level of 4755. An additional signal in favor of the rise in the Ethereum rate will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength. Cancellation of the growth option will be a fall and a breakdown of the area of 2845. In this case, we should expect a continuation of the decline with a target below the area of 2235.
Ethereum Towers Above Axie Infinity and Altcoin Projects, Earning $777,000,000 in Revenue in Just One Month
Ethereum’s (ETH) protocol revenue is towering over play-to-earn game Axie Infinity and other altcoin projects.
Data from Token Terminal shows that the smart contract platform’s protocol revenue in the past 30 days reached $777 million, far surpassing those of Axie Infinity ($183.6 million), non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea ($70.1 million), decentralized margin trading platform dYdX ($49.9 million) and digital payment system Filecoin ($16.7 million).
Ethereum’s big number comes after the blockchain launched its major upgrade in preparation for ETH 2.0. Crypto exchange Kraken says that more than $1 billion worth of ETH has already been burned since the London hard fork was activated in August.
ETH’s hash rate also hit an all-time high on September 21st with miner revenue surging to as much as $70 million in early September amid rising demand for NFTs and optimism over ETH’s future.
Despite placing at a far second, Axie Infinity’s native token AXS saw a spike in price following reports that its developer, Sky Mavis, is now valued at $3 billion. The platform is on track to bring in $1 billion in revenue from in-game transactions this year.