Popular blockchain analytics firm Glassnode says crypto investors may be looking at the “calm before the storm” for Bitcoin.
In their new weekly report, Glassnode says the entire Bitcoin ecosystem has become quiet, potentially hinting that a big move is on the horizon.
“It has been an impressively quiet week in the Bitcoin market as volatility continues to seep out, and prices squeeze into a tight consolidation range… It is starting to feel like the calm before the storm as muted and quiet activity appears across both spot, derivative and on-chain metrics.”
The research firm posits that since the derivative markets have become much less active, any large moves for Bitcoin will be sparked by supply and demand from spot markets rather than options and futures-driven speculation.
“With such a significant decline across all derivatives markets, it becomes increasingly likely that market volatility will be driven by spot volumes, rather than short/long squeezes or leveraged liquidations. Thus, the direction of the next large move is likely to strongly reflect underlying supply and demand (rather than a speculative premium/discount).”
Looking at the underlying supply, Glassnode says it is keeping an eye on the young coins on the market, or BTC that have only been held for one to six months. According to the firm, the multi-month downward trend of young coin supply could be a signal that HODLing (hold on for dear life) behavior is underway.
“However, since the sell-off in May, the young coin supply has commenced a structural downtrend which indicates coins are maturing, HODLing is taking place, and accumulation is likely underway.
It is favourable for price if young coin supply continues to decline (old coins dormant and young coins maturing). Conversely, large spikes in young coin supply suggest renewed distribution and would favour a bearish bias.”