Prediction markets bet against Cardano releasing smart contracts by Oct. 1

  • A market prediction by Polymarket indicates that the odds of Cardano’s smart contract release by Oct 1 are 63-37 against.
  • Prediction markets allow betting on real-world events such as elections and sports.

The chances of Cardano incorporating smart contract functionality by Oct. 1, 2021, are slim according to a Thursday prediction market from Polymarket. Notably, Cardano smart contract shares were trading at $0.37 for “yes” and $0.63 for “no” on the Polymarket, with the most expensive bets perceived most likely to be correct. Additionally, the market’s trading volume exceeded $157,000, at press time. The market, therefore, is of the greater opinion that Cardano will not launch smart contracts as scheduled.

Meanwhile, market participants are now waiting to see which of the bets come to reality. The correct answer will be redeemable for $1 in form of USDC stablecoin.

Over time, it has been observed that global tech timelines are quite unreliable and more of a hit and miss. Nevertheless, the Alonzo testnet has shown meaningful progress as it launched Alonzo Blue 2.0 in mid-June. This debut was the first development stage towards the launch of smart contract capabilities, as outlined in Cardano’s 90-day roadmap. The three development stages – Blue, White, and Purple are to happen at a 30-60-90-day window, in that order.

Moreover, on Wednesday, Alonzo launched the second hard fork of the “White” phase. The testnet is underpinning the main features of Cardano’s smart contract development for its anticipated third-era dubbed Goguen. Cardano began its second era, Shelley, in July 2020. The third phase on the road to smart contract functionality, known as Alonzo Purple, is on day 90 of Cardano’s plan.

Cardano and Polymarket Prediction Markets

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow people to place their bets on real-world events. These include elections and sports games. Event proponents tout participants to form an impression of the views of experts. Since money is on the line, such forecasts are given quite the level of confidence, compared to experts’ free opinion. The latter has nothing to lose should the reality and their viewpoint misalign.

So far, centralized platforms such as PredictIt, command most of these prediction markets. However, as decentralized tech is increasingly adopted, newer markets have begun operating on blockchain networks. Examples are Augur which is Ethereum-based and Polymarket, built on the Polygon sidechain.

Currently, the largest market by a trading volume of $315,000 on Polymarket, is betting on Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). Specifically, the bets are on whether EIP-1559 will go live by the end of July.

Hoskinson’s response

Cardano was founded in 2015 by Charles Hoskinson, who is also the co-founder of the original smart contract chain Ethereum. The network was built by Input-Output Hong Kong (IOHK) research and development company, also founded by Hoskinson. Having gone live in 2017, Cardano’s native token ADA, is now the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, with a $38.9 billion market cap, according to our data.

In response to news of a prediction market on Cardano, Hoskinson tweeted “You people make me laugh.” It was not clear, however, whether his cynicism was directed to the trends in the market or the market’s very existence.