Peter Schiff: “Bitcoin is not related to anything”

The well-known detractor of Bitcoin, Peter Schiff, argues that the price of BTC is unrelated to other assets. 

In fact, in a recent tweet he wrote that bitcoin is proving to be unrelated, given that on Monday, while the prices of the other risk-on assets fell, the price of BTC fell even more, while the next day the other risk-on assets. they recovered and BTC fell again. 

He concluded the tweet with an ironic statement: 

“Congratulations HODLers. You own a risk-on asset that can decline regardless of the direction of other risk-on assets. 

The tweet was released this morning, shortly after bitcoin’s price climbed above $ 30,000, after hovering below that figure for about 24 hours. 

In other words, the recovery of the BTC price, compared to yesterday’s decline, took place more or less simultaneously with Peter Schiff’s tweet. 

Analysis of Peter Schiff’s claims on bitcoin correlations

However, there is little point in trying to find correlations on short-term price movements, such as daily ones. 

Even taking only the last 30 days, it turns out that the price of BTC has followed a downward trend (about -15% since the end of June), while for example the S&P 500 first rose, then fell, and then returned more or less to the level of departure. 

Gold, much loved by Schiff, rose 1.6% during this period, while oil lost 8%. 

In light of these data, it is however possible to state that in the last month the trend in the price of bitcoin appears to be uncorrelated from that of the main other assets, both risk-on and risk-off. 

However, if we extend the analysis, for example, to the last 12 months, it turns out that BTC has grown by 233%, while the S&P 500 only by 33%, with oil that has registered a + 62% , and gold that today has roughly the same price as in mid-July last year, after rising and then falling. 

In general, the longer the analysis period, the more bitcoin is at the same time uncorrelated and growing, and this completely refutes the image suggested by Schiff of the price of bitcoin which, however things go on in the markets, goes down. However, it should be emphasized that in recent years, mainly due to the relentless quantitative easing of central banks, the prices of many assets have been on the rise, only that the increases in value of BTC tend to be higher. 

Note that in December 2020, when the price of bitcoin was around $ 28,000, Schiff wrote that although most HODLers expected the increase would continue into 2021, he instead compared the situation to that of late 2017. assuming that 2021 would be like 2018, when the price dropped by 70%. 

Since then, the price has more than doubled, reaching $ 65,000 in mid-April 2021, before returning to $ 30,000.

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