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Three reasons why Bitcoin can suddenly explode to a new $50K-$65K range

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Analyst Willy Woo highlights three on-chain indicators that track the flow of Bitcoin tokens across wallets, each illustrating why the benchmark cryptocurrency could explode higher.

A combination of multiple indicators tracking Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain would continue the benchmark cryptocurrency’s price rally further into 2021, popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo anticipates.

In his recent newsletter, the market researcher wrote that he expects Bitcoin prices to reach the $50,000-$65,000 range in the coming sessions. His comments appeared as BTC/USD reclaimed its three-month high above $42,600 only days after crashing below $30,000, the pair’s psychological support level.

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“My expectation is similar to BTC at $20k all-time-high in January, where the price is pinned close to the $40k-$42k ceiling over a period of days (2 weeks maximum) wearing down sellers, followed by a faster move to $50k,” said Woo.

“The next major consolidation band is $50k-$65k.”

Bitcoin is rangebound between $30,000 and $40,000 since May 2021. Source: TradingView.com

BTC supply crunch

Bitcoin price rallied alongside supportive comments from Tesla’s Elon Musk, Twitter’s Jack Dorsey, and Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood in July. The cryptocurrency also rose on rumors that global retail giant Amazon would start accepting it as payments, a claim that the company later refuted.

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s run-up to $42,600 also came right after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the possibility of interim inflationary shocks during a press conference last Wednesday. In detail, crypto bulls treat Bitcoin as their hedge against rising consumer prices.

What’s noteworthy is that the period of Bitcoin’s price recovery from under $30,000 coincided with an increasing liquid supply shock. Specifically, BTC was taken off exchanges, which, as Woo suggested, was due to strong holders locking them away for long-term investment.

Bitcoin liquid supply shock oscillator. Source: Willy Woo

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“As of today, the Liquid Supply Shock metric is at a level which is consistent with a $55K price level,” the analyst wrote on Aug. 1, pointing at the high deviation between the available supply and the current Bitcoin prices.

“Despite a powerful 44% rally in less than 2 weeks, we are still in a heavily discounted zone for BTC.”

Miners return

China’s ban on cryptocurrency activities in May played a crucial role in sending the Bitcoin prices lower this summer. The decision paralyzed the regional crypto mining industry that accounted for more than half of the global Bitcoin production.

Glassnode reported in June that miners either closed down their rigs to comply with the new law or shifted their operations outside China, thereby incurring additional costs to keep their production running.

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The data analytics platform also noted that miners would likely liquidate a portion of their Bitcoin holdings to cover additional expenses. But, as it turned out, the miners’ net BTC accumulation trend reversed in May, showcasing capitulation.

But as Woo noted, miners resumed Bitcoin accumulation in July. He cited the popular Bitcoin Hash Ribbon metric, which tracks the network’s expansion and loss of hash rate, noting that it was recovering for the first time since the China ban.

Bitcoin hash ribbon vs. BTCUSD price action. Source: Willy Woo

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“Ribbon recovery events spell the end of miners sell-off (which is what they do when they are driven out of business),” wrote Woo.

“Typically a recovery of the ribbon opens the way for a multi-month period of bullish price action. This indicator did a very good job of locating the price bottom.”

Whale activity spikes

The past week has seen strong buying from whales, added Woo while pointing at Bitcoin’s climb from $29,300 to over $42,600.

Whales typically represent entities that hold more than 1,000 BTC in their Bitcoin addresses. While they don’t exclusively impact the market’s directional bias, their buying in conjugation with relatively small Bitcoin investors points to a strongly bullish scenario.

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The analyst noted that all investor cohorts—big or small—were buying Bitcoin for nine consecutive days, an even he has not witnessed in the cryptocurrency’s lifetime.

Whale-led Bitcoin buying typically follows up with large price spikes. Source: Willy Woo

“The present buying by all cohorts is strongly bullish,” said Woo. “When everyone is buying, who is the seller? The sellers are traders. The coins sold by traders reduce the speculative inventory on spot exchanges.”

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Bitcoin Price Flash Crashes for Second Time in a Month in the US

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The price of bitcoin (BTC) on Binance.US, the US-based exchange affiliated with Binance, briefly crashed to as low as USD 8,200 today – a drop of 87% – before recovering again. The crash marks the second time in a month when bitcoin prices in the US have briefly disconnected from the rest of the world. 

Today’s flash crash, which was one of the most significant on a major exchange in bitcoin’s history, all happened within less than 1 minute, the BTC/USD price chart from Binance.US showed. 

Although the flash crash was all over within a minute, the trading volume showed that a significant number of coins did change hands during the crash, indicating that some traders may have been able to fill orders for bitcoin at extremely low prices.

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BTC/USD on Binance.US. Source: TradingView

Flash crashes can happen when large market sell orders are sent to exchanges without sufficient liquidity on its order books, for instance, because a large trader accidentally placed the order as a market order instead of a limit order.

Today’s flash crash on Binance’s US exchange is the second such incident in a month in the US. On September 20, a data feed for crypto prices called Pyth that is used by some of the largest financial institutions on Wall Street showed a 90% crash in the price of bitcoin.

The feed briefly showed bitcoin at a price of USD 5,402. However, a similar price crash was nowhere else to be seen. Two days later, in a report about the incident, Pyth concluded that the abnormally low price was indeed a technical glitch, “caused by the combination of (1) two different Pyth publishers publishing a near-zero price for BTC/USD and (2) the aggregation logic overweighting these publishers’ contributions.”

Discussing today’s incident on Twitter, many traders complained about being forced by US regulations to use exchanges such as Binance.US, which has thin order books and low liquidity compared to the international version of the exchange.

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No statement has yet been made from Binance or Binance US regarding today’s flash crash.

At 16:11 UTC, BTC trades at USD 63,180 and is down by almost 6% in a day, trimming its weekly gains to 10%.

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Mt. Gox Bitcoin Payouts On Horizon After Creditors Approve Plan

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The light finally appears to be at the end of the tunnel for the Mt. Gox creditors, who have approved a plan that will let them choose to receive some of the coins they have been waiting years for.

In a translated letter, Nobuaki Kobayashi, the Japanese lawyer and trustee for the now-defunct bitcoin (BTC) exchange, explained that “approximately 99%” of the creditors had voted in favor of an offer that has since been put before a branch of the Tokyo District Court.

A voting process that began back in May this year wrapped up earlier this month.

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The court has since confirmed the order, although there was no mention of an exact timescale for the token refunds.

The trustee wrote that an announcement “will be made to rehabilitation creditors on the details of the specific timing, procedures and amount of such repayments.”

However, Kobayashi wrote that the process would “finalize” and become “binding” in “approximately one month from” October 20.

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The creditors will then be able to file their claims through a website, by filing a proof of rehabilitation claim.

Kobayashi wrote that the trustee “would like to express sincere gratitude to all involved parties for their understanding and support.”

The BTC exchange was once the world’s biggest, but spectacularly folded in 2014 following a spate of hacking attacks that saw raiders make off with thousands of BTC tokens.

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Creditors have been trying to recover their funds ever since, but have been locked in a protracted legal struggle that has rumbled on over the years.

The Fortress Investment Group has previously offered creditors some 80% of claims. But the trustee promised a higher figure, closer to about 90%. The tokens lost in the hacks will likely have to be written off, however, meaning that payouts are going to be a fraction of the original amounts held.

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JPMorgan: Inflation Hedge Narrative Propelled Bitcoin’s Price to ATH

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According to some JPMorgan analysts, bitcoin hit an ATH because people started investing in it as a better hedge against inflation than gold.

Strategists at the financial institution JPMorgan Chase & Co. argued that the reason behind BTC’s all-time high price is not the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF. Instead, concerns about the rising inflation made the digital asset an attractive investment option, and that led to its recent rally.

Gold Failed, BTC Prevailed

The moment, which many people in the cryptocurrency community have been waiting for, finally arrived on October 19th when the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy futures-backed ETF, named BITO, started trading on the New York Stock Exchange. It became the first such product approved in the United States.

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During the first day of its launch, it generated massive trading volumes and even became the second-highest traded fund ever. Shortly after, BTC’s USD value headed straight north towards a new all-time high at roughly $67,000.

Still, according to JPMorgan strategists, including the managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, another factor drove bitcoin to that milestone. The specialists indicated that the cryptocurrency had replaced gold as a hedge against inflation in recent months, which had propelled the price north:

“By itself, the launch of BITO is unlikely to trigger a new phase of significantly more fresh capital entering bitcoin. Instead, we believe the perception of bitcoin as a better inflation hedge than gold is the main reason for the current upswing, triggering a shift away from gold ETFs into Bitcoin funds since September.”

JPMorgan’s team noted that the last couple of weeks were not that successful for the precious metal. Taking a look at a broader period, bitcoin ETF’s have significantly outpaced gold ones, as the strategists revealed:

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“This flow shift remains intact supporting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin into year-end.”

Bitcoin Funds vs. Gold ETFs: Source: JPMorgan
Bitcoin Funds vs. Gold ETFs Inflows: Source: JPMorgan

Can BTC Now Change The Stance of The Big Boss?

Jamie Dimon – Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan – is among the most prominent critics of the leading digital asset. Still, it seems like he has started releasing the tight grip on it.

It all started in 2017 when the top executive called bitcoin a “fraud.” Dimon did not stop there and warned that “it’s worse than tulip bulbs. It won’t end well. Someone is going to get killed.” Shortly after, though, he regretted making that comment, and his financial institution became much more accepting of BTC.

Last year, Dimon weighed in on the matter once again. This time he was softer in his comments saying that bitcoin is not his “cup of tea” and that he has no personal interest in it.

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A few days ago, the CEO returned to his negative phase, describing BTC as “worthless.” Nevertheless, he acknowledged that most of JPMorgan’s clients do not share his opinion and show an increasing demand for digital asset services.

With BTC charting a new all-time high, the crypto community is yet to find out whether Dimon will maintain his hostile viewpoint on the matter or rather soften a bit and allow more offerings to his bitcoin-hungry customers.

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