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Ethereum supply shock: Exchange ETH reserves continue to fall after a 26% drop in 2021

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The amount of Ether (ETH) held by all cryptocurrency exchanges has declined dramatically in the previous 12 months.

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that Ethereum reserves on trading platforms dropped 26.29 million ETH to 19.22 million ETH year-on-year (YoY), indicating that traders’ preference to hold their tokens increased.

At least the Ether price performance in the same period indicates the same. Between August 25, 2020, and press time, the ETH/USD exchange rate exploded by a little over 730%— from $407 to $3,190, signaling an erratic inverse correlation between the Ethereum token prices and its reserves across all exchanges.

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Ethereum reserves versus ETH/USD price performance YoY. Source: CryptoQuant

In detail, traders typically prefer to keep their crypto assets on exchange wallets when they wish to trade them in the near term. Otherwise, they move those assets to private wallets to control their own keys, a strategy that stems from the fears of losing funds to hacks and similar security breaches at crypto exchanges.

Ether deposits plunge

Another on-chain indicator, built by CoinMetrics to track the total number of Ether deposits to exchanges, also alerted holding sentiment among Ethereum traders. It noted that traders’ ETH deposits across all the trading platforms had plunged 21.11% YoY, from 413,772 ETH to 326,408.

Ethereum deposits on exchanges. Source: CoinMetrics, Messari

But in the last 30 days, the ETH deposits have dropped dramatically by 47.81%, signaling that many investors are expecting higher prices in the long term.

Meanwhile, the sum count of unique addresses holding any amount of Ether in the last 30 days has jumped 1.67%, coinciding with a 42% ETH/USD rally in the same period. On a YoY timeframe, the unique address count has jumped 30.87%.

Ethereum address count. Source: CoinMetrics, Messari

Supply Squeeze

The Ether holding sentiment has picked momentum in days leading up to and after a landmark Ethereum network upgrade on August 5, 2021. Dubbed as the London Hard Fork, the software update implemented a proposal called EIP-1559 that enabled gas fee burning on the Ethereum network.

This has added deflationary pressure as a result. In the first 20 days after EIP-1559 went live, the network has burned almost 92,595 ETH worth around $295.85 million, according to WatchTheBurn.com.

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More Ether went out of active supply as Ethereum invited participants to deposit 32 ETH to become validator on its upcoming proof-of-stake blockchain. Beacon Chain reports that the so-called Ethereum 2.0 smart contract has attracted a little over 6.9 million ETH worth around $22 billion.

Staked Ether in Ethereum 2.0 smart contract. Source: BeconCha.in

Additionally, demand for Ether continues to grow owing to Ethereum’s expanding ecosystem, containing projects from the booming decentralized finance (DeFi) and nonfungible token sectors. 

Last week, Lyn Alden, the founder Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, called the London upgrade a “tactically bullish” event, noting that it could easily push ETH/USD rates to over $5,000

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Ethereum

Ethereum competitor Near launches $800M developer fund as DeFi competition heats up

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Smart contract ecosystem Near Protocol has earmarked $800 million for new funding initiatives aimed at growing its decentralized finance capabilities, offering the latest evidence that the highly lucrative DeFi market is still in its infancy. 

The new funding, which includes the $350 million grants program announced by Proximity Labs last week, gives ecosystem developers added incentive to create new product offerings on Near, the company announced Monday.

Roughly $250 million will be allocated to existing ecosystem developers; another $100 million is earmarked for startup grants, with Near planning to fund more than 20 startups at a rate of $5 million each. The remaining $100 million will be spent on so-called regional funds across Asia, Europe and the United States.

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Value locked in DeFi protocols has surged 936% over the past year, with Ethereum competitors such as Binance Smart Chain, Solana and Avalanche seeing considerable uptake, according to data from DappRadar. Ethereum projects account for roughly 66% of the total value locked across DeFi, according to industry sources.

Despite Ethereum’s overwhelming dominance, the DeFi market is growing at a torrid pace and is currently valued at over $247 billion — leaving plenty of room for competing platforms to capitalize. One year ago, the total value locked in DeFi projects was less than $13 billion.

Near accounts for a tiny sliver of the total DeFi market, but that could soon change as more developers tap into the new funding campaigns and users continue to search for alternatives to Ethereum-based protocols. As Cointelegraph recently reported, Ethereum’s competitors have seen an influx of users fleeing the high fees on the ETH network.

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$2 Billion Worth of Ethereum Burned Since August

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$2 billion worth of Ethereum could have been dumped on the market, but thanks to EIP-1559 it has been burned

Due to the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency market and the popularity of the NFT and DeFi industries, the Ethereum network reaches another milestone: more than $2 billion worth of Ethereum has been burned recently. The significant USD value of the burned tokens is also followed by a recent 15% price increase.

Ethereum burn rate

With the implementation of the EIP-1559 update, the fee-burning mechanism has been introduced to the network. Since then, Ethereum mining rewards are getting burned instead of going directly to miners’ pockets.

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Ethereum burns
Source: Dune Analytics

With network load increasing due to the popularity of the DeFi and NFT industries, the burning rate is moving up gradually with 616,000 Ethereum burned while a little bit over one million ETH have been minted.

At the current pace, the Ethereum burn rate remains at 0.58 with more Ethereum burned than earned by miners. If the network remains in the same condition until around the year 2023, Ethereum will become a deflationary coin, which means that the circulating supply will start to decrease progressively.

Effect on the price

While deflationary blocks are not something new, various fund managers and wealthy investors have expressed their feelings about the future of the coin by predicting that it will remain growing due to the constant reduction of the supply.

Ethereum daily chart
Source: TradingView

At press time, Ethereum is trading at $4,145, after reaching the previous ATH of $4,380 on Oct. 21. Cryptocurrency traders and investors have not yet moved Ether past the previous high, leaving it hanging close to the local peak.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH still holds below $4,200, swift breakout to follow today?

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  • Ethereum price analysis is bullish today.
  • ETH/USD set a higher low at $4,000 yesterday.
  • Ethereum looking to break $4,200 today.

Ethereum price analysis is bullish today as another higher low was set yesterday, leading to a move higher overnight. Therefore, we expect ETH/USD to continue higher and break the $4,200 mark later today.

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH still holds below $4,200, swift breakout to follow today? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The cryptocurrency market traded in the green over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin up by 3.36 percent. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.32 percent, while Solana (SOL) is the top performer with an 8 percent gain.

Ethereum price movement in the last 24 hours: Ethereum sets higher low at $4,000, returns below $4,200 resistance

ETH/USD traded in a range of $3,967.12 – $4,175.12, indicating substantial volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 13.58 percent and totals $16.559 billion, while the total market cap trades around $488.65 billion, resulting in market dominance of 18.82 percent.

ETH/USD 4-hour chart: ETH ready to break $4,200?

On the 4-hour chart, we can see bullish momentum strong today as the $4,200 mark gets tested again.

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH still holds below $4,200, breakout to follow today?
ETH/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Ethereum price action has seen a strong performance so far in October. After breaking out of a more than week-long consolidation on the 1st of October, a strong advance followed until the first resistance at $3,650.

Over th next weeks, two further waves higher were set. The first one took ETH/USD to just under $4,000, while the second one all-the-way to the previous all-time high at $4,400.

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Since then, the Ethereum price has retraced again. Previous swing highs were retested over the weekend, with support found at $3,900. Yesterday, ETH/USD moved to $4,200, with no further upside seen, leading to another retracement. 

Another higher low was set, pushing ETH back to $4,200 earlier today, which will likely lead to more upside over the next 24 hours.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Ethereum price analysis is bullish as a new high thigh was set yesterday, leading ETH back to the $4,200 local resistance. Therefore, we expect ETH/USD to break higher over the next 24 hours.

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While waiting for Ethereum to move further, read our guides on LTC wallets, Gero wallets, and  DeFi wallets.

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