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Is It Time for Chainlink To Soar? Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen Looks at State of LINK

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Decentralized oracle network Chainlink (LINK) could be ready for takeoff, according to one popular crypto analyst.

In a new strategy session, widely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen tells his 528,000 subscribers that he believes Chainlink is primed to rally past three digits this market cycle. 

“My speculation with LINK – and it always has been – is that we should break $100 this market cycle. And I would speculate that we go above that… We could go to several hundred dollars this market cycle. 

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That will of course be highly dependent on the health of the entire market.”

At time of writing, the 11th-ranked cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $35.98 coming off a 16% increase over the past 24 hours.

Cowen notes that during LINK’s existence, the time between each bull cycle has decreased. After recovering to the level of its previous bull cycle – which took the altcoin from its former $20 all-time high to a new high of $53 in the span of 273 days – Cowen speculates that the next cycle may only take up to 200 days to complete. He thinks that new all-time highs could come before the end of the year.

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Despite LINK’s tendency to underperform when Bitcoin (BTC) is rallying, he stands behind his thesis that Chainlink usually shines when Bitcoin holds support above the 20-week moving average.

“Look at the bigger picture. Recognize that LINK is – more or less – on a mission where I do believe that it will continue increasing with time. But unfortunately, LINK is one of the coins that… doesn’t tend to do as well when Bitcoin is.

It does well when Bitcoin’s kind of just hanging out, not super bearish. But if it’s above the 20-week [moving average], that’s when LINK shines. That’s where we are today.”

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Chainlink price analysis: LINK breaks below $25. More downside ahead?

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  • Chainlink price analysis is bearish today.
  • Strong resistance is present at $26.4.
  • Support for LINK/USD is present at $24.1.

Chainlink faced rejection at $25.3 as LINK started to decline during the late hours yesterday, and the decline continued today as well. However, LINK managed to get support, and some upwards price movement has been observed recently. The current bullish wave has formed a short-term upwards pattern as the coin has been rising for the past few days, while the overall trend has been bearish.

LINK/USD 1-day price chart: Price drops as bears intervene in the bullish trend

The 1-day price chart for Chainlink price analysis shows the price declined from $25.3 to $24.8 today and is trading hands at the later value at the time of writing. The LINK/USD pair reports a loss of 4.58 percent in price value over the last 24 hours and a loss of 6.03 percent over the past week. The trading volume has also decreased by 5.65 percent, and the market cap suffered by 4.76 percent.

Chainlink price analysis: LINK breaks below $25. More downside ahead? 1

The volatility for the crypto pair is quite high despite the price fluctuations being small after 26th November. The price is trading below the Bollinger band average, which is standing at $27.4, representing the resistance level and the lower end of the Bollinger bands is present at $21.6, representing the support level for LINK.

The relative strength index (RSI) is trading in the lower half of the neutral zone and is present at index 37, though the indicator is still in the neutral zone but shows sellers outpowering the buyers in the market for LINK/USD.

Chainlink price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indications

The 4-hour price chart for Chainlink price analysis shows the coin corrected for 12 hours continuously, including the first hours of today’s trading session. However, during the last eight hours, an improvement in price was observed as the bulls managed to make a comeback.

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Chainlink price analysis: LINK breaks below $25. More downside ahead? 2
LINK/USD 4-hours price chart. Source: TradingView

The volatility is comparatively mild on the 4-hour chart; the price stepped below the average line of the Bollinger bands during the past hours, which was representing the support level for the coin, which now turned into a resistance level at $25.3. The RSI, after sinking into the lower half of the neutral zone, shows a little upwards curve hinting at the recently started buying activity as it trades at index 46.

Overall the technical indicators are also favoring the bearish side as a majority of 15 technical indicators are giving sell signals, including the SMAs, EMAs, the MACD oscillator. On the other hand, only one technical indicator is giving a buy signal, which is the momentum oscillator. The remaining 10 technical indicators stand neutral and do not issue any signal for buying or selling.

Chainlink price analysis: Conclusion

The Chainlink price analysis for today favors bears as the price level is below then yesterday’s price cap. However, we anticipate LINK to continue upside for the coming hours as the price has been elevated during the last hours before continuing downside later today.

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Chainlink price ready to reverse, 30% upswing likely for LINK

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  • Chainlink price is reversing its downtrend and is eyeing a higher high to solidify the bullish thesis.
  • On-chain metrics suggest that LINK is in a place of accumulation, adding a tailwind to the rally.
  • A breakdown of the $21.35 support level will invalidate the optimistic outlook.

Chainlink price seems ready for a reversal of its two-week downswing as it attempts to create a higher high. This outlook is also supported by on-chain metrics, which suggest the possibility of accumulation at the current levels for LINK.

Chainlink price to kick-start a rally

Chainlink price has dropped roughly 41% over the past 18 days, creating a swing low at $22.65, which could potentially be the reversal point. From this pivot point, LINK has rallied 14% to where it currently trades – $25.93.

Investors can expect Chainlink price to continue its upswing toward the 50% retracement level at $30.51. This run-up will represent a 17% ascent and in some cases, the uptrend could extend to the 62% Fibonacci retracement level at $32.40. This move, however, would indicate a 30% upswing for LINK. 

LINK/USDT 6-hour chart

LINK/USDT 6-hour chart

The technicals are clearly indicating a bullish outlook for the oracle token and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model also suggests a similar outcome as it hovers around -11.5%.

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This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased LINK over the past month. A negative value indicates that the short-term investors are in the red and this is where long-term holders tend to accumulate.

Therefore, market participants can expect Chainlink price to see a bullish reaction and trigger an upswing.

LINK MVRV 30-day chart

LINK MVRV 30-day chart

On a similar note, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows that Chainlink price has a free path up to roughly $30. Here, nearly 85,000 addresses purchased 117.45 million LINK tokens. 

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Therefore, these underwater investors might offload their holdings if the LINK price rises to their breakeven levels. Hence, market participants need to pay close attention to $30.

LINK GIOM chart

LINK GIOM chart

Regardless of the bullish outlook from both technical and on-chain perspectives, there is a chance Chainlink price might head below the range low at $22.63 to collect liquidity. This move will invalidate the bullish thesis if LINK produces a lower low below $21.35.

In such a scenario, Chainlink price could head lower to retest an immediate support level at $20.79.

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Chainlink Becomes Most-Traded Token Among Whales

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Ethereum whales are actively trading Chainlink, and here’s how the market reacts.

Chainlink flips UNI token in trading volume among 1,000 largest Ethereum addresses. Currently, the token reacts with a small 2.8% growth.

Whale activity

While UNI remains the most-held token among large addresses, Link has the greatest trading volume, which means that whales were either selling or buying the asset. But according to the current price action, buying power exceeds selling pressure.

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Whales currently hold $360 million worth of Link tokens, which is only 1.85% of all funds concentrated among the largest Ethereum blockchain wallets, excluding exchanges and projects.

Ascending volumes

Though Link has taken first place as the most traded token in the last 24 hours, it is still losing to Shiba Inu, which remains in 5th place among the top 10 most purchased tokens, while Link remains in 6th place.

ChainLink Daily Chart
Source: TradingView

The increased trading volume on Link token can be considered a positive sign for the market since higher trading volume for an asset in a bullish trend might act as fuel for a continuation. Trading volumes tend to decrease at the top of the current trend. In the case of Link, the current trading volume tends to decrease but still remains above average.

At press time, Chainlink is trading at $26.40, with a 9.7% price increase in the last four days. Previously, Chainlink lost 30% of its value from the ATH point on the chart. After the global cryptocurrency market correction, Link became even cheaper after dropping by an additional 8%.

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