The last couple of days have been quite deterring for most alts. The market’s 17th largest crypto, Litecoin was no exception to the wider melancholy. After trading above $230 for a fair period of time last week, LTC’s price paid a visit to $162 on 7 September.
However, the alt was quick to rebound from the aforementioned level and has been consolidating around the $170-$180 range of late.
Well, the smart contract and NFT buzz has evidently been able to stir in optimism and aid LTC’s price recovery. However, another major factor substantially kept the LTC community sanguine.
Debunking the ETF hysteria
As per a recent report, Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust (LTCN) moved a step closer to becoming an Exchange Traded Fund. A Forbe’s report revealed that the trust has become an SEC reporting company alongside the likes of its Bitcoin and Ethereum Trusts. The trust would now be regulated akin to any other publicly traded company.
The aforementioned move, according to Forbes, could fortify Grayscale’s relationship with the regulatory body when it moves to convert the trust into a fund. The ETF status would, undoubtedly, open up the trust to the wider retail market. In retrospect, accessibility to investors who intend to purchase the shares of this trust would increase.
Nonetheless, a blind eye cannot be turned towards the current ETF environment in the U.S. since the SEC has at least a dozen Bitcoin ETF applications in front of it, but has refrained from approving any. Now even though SEC’s Chairman Gary Gensler recently made his support for an ETF clear, there has been no timeline released as such.
Where pending Bitcoin ETFs did not get an approval yet, the odds of an LTC ETF turning into reality is no less than a long shot.
State of LTCN
As a matter of fact, Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust hasn’t been in a good shape of late. The market valuation of the shares has massively shrunken over the past few months. As seen from the chart attached, LTCN shares used to trade around the $400 threshold during May. However, the same is currently as low as $17.2. For context, LTC’s valuation in the same time frame has more or less witnessed only a 50% haircut.
Now even if the pipe dream ends up becoming a reality, and the ETF gets approved and eventually launched, there is no surety that it would impact the price of LTC because diminishing/negative returns seldom attract investors. If the state worsens in the coming days, market participants would prefer exposing their portfolios directly to Litecoin, rather than through some other alternative investment vehicle.
LTC’s current state
As far as Litecoin’s current state is concerned, it looks like the alt might head in any direction. That being said, it should be noted that its volatility witnessed a notable surge from the 40%-80% bracket to the 80%-120% bracket.
Curiously, the coin’s Liveliness metric depicted a clear-cut trend. This metric has, notably, been on the fall of late. Liveliness is a ratio between the Coin Days Destroyed and the Coin Days Created and helps in analyzing the broader market trend.
Usually, this metric witnesses an uptick whenever long-term HODLers liquidate their positions and decreases whenever they accumulate or HODL. As per Glassnode’s chart, it’s quite clear that the HODLing behavior has been dominating the market and, by and large, is a healthy sign.
Further, the current state of the SOPR indicated that sellers might end up capitulating sooner than later, implying that Litecoin is well-prepared to welcome new participants into the market.
Keeping in mind the state of the aforementioned metrics, and the NFT saga, it can be claimed that LTC’s price would rebound further in the coming days. However, the ETF mania may not continue to have any imposing effect on the alt’s price, at least for now.
Litecoin price analysis: Bullish momentum takes the price to $183. What’s next?
- Litecoin price analysis is bullish today.
- The nearest resistance is found at $185.4.
- The nearest support for LTC is present at $181.4.
The Litecoin price analysis reveals the market is again dominated by bulls. The price has increased today again for the third consecutive day. Overall during the last week, the price trend was slightly on a downslope, but the last three days proved worthwhile for the crypto pair as the price of LTC/USD increased from $172 to $184 during this time. Currently, the price is floating in the upper price envelope, which was found after the flash crash of 7th September. The nearest resistance for LTC/USD is present at $185.4, followed by another resistance of $189.6. On the contrary, support for LTC/USD pair is present at $181.4, followed by another support of $177.
LTC/USD 1-day price chart: LTC bulls to face resistance at $185.4
The 1-day price chart for Litecoin price analysis shows bulls are successfully maintaining the price above $180, they achieved the target yesterday and today are continuing further high. Today bulls covered the upwards range from $181.4 to the current price of $184. The LTC/USD pair gained over 2.5 percent value over the last 24 hours and around four percent value over the course of the last seven days. The trading volume has also increased by nearly six percent.
The volatility for LTC/USD pair is almost mild, but slightly on the higher side, and the Bollinger bands indicator shows a little upwards breakout with the upper band at the $194.8 mark, representing the resistance for LTC, and the lower band at the $141.6 mark, representing the lowest support for LTC/USD. The average of the indicator is at $168, which also is a support for the price, as the price is trading above the mean average.
The relative strength index (RSI) is in the upper half of the neutral zone on an upwards curve, indicating increasing buying activity in the market at a modest pace. The RSI is present at index 58 in the neutral zone.
The moving average (MA) is present at $178 below the price level complementing the bullish momentum. All the short-term moving averages and exponential moving averages support the bullish trend.
The Litecoin price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indication
The 4-hour price chart for Litecoin price analysis shows selling pressure forming in the market as price touched $184, which is evident by the last red candlestick, but traders can expect that this candlestick may turn green because the Bollinger bands have started diverging on both sides.
The increase in volatility which is indicated by the divergence of the Bollinger bands is providing more space for the upwards price function. The upper Bollinger band is now at $186, representing the resistance for LTC/USD. As the price trend is upwards, we can expect the price to rise further. The RSI has taken a downturn and is present at index 59, which is not a good indication.
Overall technical indicators support the bullish trend as 14 technical indicators show buy signs for LTC/USD assets, and only two technical indicators show sell signs, whereas 10 technical indicators show no signs and are standing neutral.
Litecoin price analysis: Conclusion
The litecoin price analysis shows bullish momentum is leading the price function. The selling pressure as noted on the 4-hour price chart may get reversed if the support remains strong and buying activity, as suggested by the 1-day RSI, keeps on increasing. Traders can expect the price to go above $184 in the coming hours.
Litecoin (LTC) Flips Ethereum (ETH) In Terms of Address Activity for Third Time in 2021
If something good that’s happening to Litecoin (LTC) as of now is that there’s a sudden surge in the Litecoin address activity as of now. On-chain data provider Santiment reported that Litecoin has flipped the world’s second-largest blockchain platform Ethereum (ETH) in terms of address activity. The data provider reports:
Litecoin has just flipped #Ethereum in terms of address activity for just the third time this year. We’ve also discovered that #Litecoin‘s payment count, which quantifies the number of addresses receiving $LTC, has hit an #ATH.
As per on-chain data provider Santiment, the daily active addresses have touched 600K which is phenomenal for a UTXO cryptocurrency. Furthermore, unlike Ethereum, Litecoin doesn’t enjoy the strong backing of DeFi or NFT contributing to active addresses.
Litecoin Payment Count Hits All-Time High
Another important metrics highlighted by the on-chain data provider “payment count” has broken the 2017 bull run high. The data [provider noted:
This specific UTXO metric counts the number of addresses which are receiving Litecoins. And it’s very close to count of active addresses. Okay, LTC belongs to UTXO. May be it makes sense to compare it’s onchain activity to Bitcoin.
LTC Price Remains Flat
Despite the recent surge in the address activity, it hasn’t been much reflected in the LTC price. The Litecoin (LTC) price continues to trade flat at $173.78 with a market cap of $11.9 billion.
Last month in September 2021, LTC shot to its 2021 high of $223 on the strong rumors that retail giant Walmart was going to facilitate LTC payments. However, this price sustained for less than 24 hours in what appeared to be a case of classic pump and dump.
One of the Litecoin executives also rushed to tweet regarding it later pulling it down. The Litecoin creator Charlie Lee later assured that they will figure out how this fake news popped into the market. However, we have yet to hear further details of the investigation.
Litecoin (LTC) address activity spikes as it clocks 10 years
- Litecoin has surpassed Ethereum in terms of address activities.
- The price might break the $200 resistance if this momentum and demand are maintained.
There is currently a strong and growing on-chain activity on Litecoin, just as the community celebrates its 10th anniversary.
On-chain analytics platform Santiment reported Tuesday that the address activities on Litecoin have surpassed that of Ethereum for the third time in 2021. Note that LTC is common for payment purposes, while Ethereum is a bedrock of DeFi protocols. Thus, flippening Ethereum signifies how significant the address activities on LTC blockchain have become these past days.
LTC on-chain metrics look bullish
Santiment also pointed out that Litecoin’s payment count, i.e., the number of addresses receiving LTC, has reached a record high.
The growing network activities on the Litecoin blockchain coincide with the 10th-anniversary celebration. The 15th-largest cryptocurrency was launched on October 12, 2011, by Charles “Charlie” Lee to facilitate instant settlement. By dint of its fast and cheap transaction fees, LTC is now widely accepted across the world.
Judging by this, it’s worth mentioning that LTC is one of the most undervalued cryptocurrencies, and it has been underperforming the market. Despite being on the trend since Tuesday, the price has remained stalled. At the time of writing, LTC was trading at $169 on CoinMarketCap, with a market capitalization of $11.6 billion. There hasn’t been any noticeable increase in the price regardless of the growth in on-chain activities.
$200 Litecoin on target
LTC can retouch the $200 price mark if the network activities and demand explode even further. The last time Litecoin was around that level was last month, following the rumors that Walmart was planning to roll out support for Litcoin payments.
On the technique side, LTC looks set to blow-pass the $200 resistance this week. In our latest prediction piece, we explained that the price of Litecoin is about to break higher given a strong bullish momentum return on the market.