- On Sept. 14, Solana and Arbitrum One went offline after large batches of transactions overloaded their networks.
- An unknown entity tried to attack Ethereum unsuccessfully through an invalid side chain.
Tuesday, Sept. 14 was quite a drama-filled day in the crypto industry. First Solana (SOL), one of Ethereum’s toughest rivals, announced a denial-of-service disruption at 12.38 PM UTC. Solana tweeted that its mainnet-beta has been experiencing intermittent instability for about 45 minutes.
Six hours into its investigation, Solana attributed the incident to a large increase in transaction load reaching 400,000 TPS. The surge overwhelmed the network causing denial-of-service and forking of the network.
Since Solana’s engineers were unable to stabilize the network, it became necessary for validators to restart it. The Solana community is now preparing for a new release, with more details on the same to be divulged soon.
More on Solana, Arbitrum downtime
Consequently, the disturbance caused a reduction in confidence of the Solana network and SOL shed 15 percent in 12 hours. The token had registered a Sept. 9 all-time high of $215 but had retraced below $175 before yesterday’s incident. As news of the outage spread, SOL prices dipped to $145. At writing time, however, the token is trading at $164.10 according to our data.
Another high-profile network that suffered downtime yesterday was Arbitrum One, an Ethereum layer-two rollup. The network reported that its sequencer had gone offline for about 45 minutes, preventing transaction submission. Since the network is still in beta, Arbitrum warned that “further outages are possible in these early days.” Nonetheless, the network emphasized that user funds “were never at risk.”
Just like Solana, a very large batch of transactions were submitted to the Arbitrum sequencer over a short period. Network downtime happened after a bug caused “the sequencer to get stuck.”
Attack launched on Ethereum
To add to all that, Ethereum (ETH) was also attacked unsuccessfully by an unknown entity on the same day. The ‘experimental’ early-morning attack temporarily diverted 0.8 percent of Ethereum nodes to an invalid chain. Alex S. of Flexpool on the Ethereum R&D Discord was the first to flag the event shortly after 3 AM ET.
“Anything wrong with the mainnet again?” he wrote, referring to the late August chain split. He also noted that some of his nodes were recording the “highest block” of the chain at a technically non-existent block number.
Ethereum developer Marius Van Der Wijden reported the incident on Twitter saying:
Someone unsuccessfully tried to attack #ethereum today by publishing a long (~550) block which contained invalid pow’s.
However, only a small percentage of Nethermind nodes were tricked into switching to the invalid chain. All other clients rejected the long sidechain as invalid. All affected nodes have since reorganized back to the correct chain.
Additionally, Van Der Wijden noted that client diversity was healthy, especially as the network prepares to transition to proof-of-stake. ETH price continued to trade above $3,200 and was tagged $3,394 at writing time.
Solana gains over 26% in two days — $250 SOL price target next?
Solana (SOL) rallied higher on Oct. 21 as traders shifted focus from Bitcoin (BTC) to the most promising altcoins.
Notably, the price of SOL increased by more than 11% to over $196 a token, the highest level since Sept.11. Combined with the gains recorded in the previous 36 hours, SOL was up by as much as 26%.
Capital rotation in play?
A new Bitcoin all-time high price on Wednesday triggered price rallies across the altcoin market as well.
For instance, Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) posted better intraday profits Wednesday, closing 7.32% higher around $4,170. Today, the second-largest cryptocurrency rallied further to $4,374, just $10 shy of its record high at $4,384 on Coinbase.
Conversely, Bitcoin corrected by more than 3.5% to below $65,000. As a result, the ETH/BTC exchange surged by more than 5% to reach an intraday high of 0.06289 BTC.
Similarly, SOL’s performance against the U.S. dollar in the last two days came out better than Bitcoin. That prompted SOL/BTC to climb by more than 8% Thursday to hit 0.0026772 BTC, showing that traders rotated capital out of the Bitcoin market to enter the Solana market.
Bullish pennant triggered
Solana’s latest price rally also appeared as a bullish breakout out of its multi-month consolidation channel.
SOL started consolidating sideways inside a Triangle-like trading range after rallying by more than 200% in the August-September period. As a result, the formation of more than two higher lows and lower highs, coupled with a declining trade volume, raised the prospect of the channel being a Pennant.
Since Pennant is typically a trend continuation indicator, their formation on the Solana chart after a massive price rally raised its prospects of sending SOL prices higher. Thus, the breakout from Wednesday now eyes an extended run-up, with its target sitting at length equal to the size of the previous uptrend.
In other words, the price target for Solana could be as high as $250 before the end of the month. However, a retest of the Pennant’s upper trendline as support would risk invalidating the bullish setup.
Buying Solana now to gain 700% profits by 2022
- Solana price has been on a massive run-up in 2021 from $1 to $216 in roughly eight months.
- This stellar climb is likely to continue into 2022 as significant bullish signs emerge.
- Moreover, the start of a new bull run will serve as a tailwind for SOL, propelling it by roughly 713%.
Solana price performance has been extraordinary in 2021, and this trend is likely to continue into 2022. There are three reasons for this optimism, all of which forecast a bullish outlook for SOL.
Solana price and Q4 crypto markets
Solana price is bullish and has been this way since its inception. The partners backing/investing in it include FTX’s Alameda Research, CMS Holdings and other big names. Moreover, SOL finds its place in many famous investors’ portfolios like Multicoin Capital, Sino Capital, etc. That these large yet important investors are backing the project with an “Ethereum-killer” narrative is one of the reasons for Solana’s exponential returns over the past eight months.
Unlike other Ethereum killers, which have never been able to stand up to Ethereum, let alone steal its market share, SOL has played a crucial role in DeFi and its events and continues to slowly siphon users away from the ETH ecosystem.
While Solana’s backing makes it extremely attractive as an investment, that is only half the reason. The other half includes the upcoming bull run – or bull run 2.0 if you will – which is more than likely to trigger altcoins to rally exponentially. But what makes this second phase intriguing and the most sought-after cycle is that it is happening in the last quarter of the year. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin bull run tend to overextend in Q4. Altcoins, however, take this to a new level, increasing their market value multiple times.
We expect, therefore, that it will be in the second half of the run-up that that the big buying will take place, with pressure from retail and institutions a significant tailwind to Solana price, as it reaches unfathomable levels.
Technicals to push SOL the rest of the way
From a technical perspective, the daily and weekly charts both show an interesting yet bullish outlook for Solana price. The daily time frame shows SOL rose 713% between July 21 to September 8, forming a flag pole – the first element in a bullish flag or pennant pattern. This exponential growth was followed by consolidation that created three lower highs and higher lows, resulting in a pennant forming when connected using trend lines.
Taken together, the run-up from July 21 to October 20 and the consolidation that followed is a continuation pattern known as the bullish pennant. This technical formation forecasts a 713% upswing to $1,336, obtained by adding the flag pole’s distance to the breakout point at $164. A more conservative estimate would be to extend the poll by a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio resulting in a surge of 440% to a price target of $721.60.
Solana price shattered the pennant’s upper trend line on October 20 and has rallied 21% to where it currently is. Going forward, investors can expect SOL to continue its 713% uptrend to reach its theoretical target of $1,336 or the more conservative $721.60 price objective.
SOL/USDT 1-day chart
Interestingly, the weekly chart for Solana price shows that it is currently hovering above the $174 resistance level. This barrier has prevented SOL from climbing higher over the past five weeks, although the recent 21% run-up seems to have done the trick.
Investors should wait for a decisive close above $174 to confirm that this upswing was backed by genuine buyers, however. Assuming SOL flips the $174 hurdle, a retest of this barrier (although unlikely) will serve as a secondary confirmation and convert it into a support floor. This development is more than likely to kick-start a new bull run on a higher time frame.
What makes this climb more assuring is the red ‘one’ sell signal from the Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) on the weekly time frame. This indicates investors need not worry about an unforeseen sell-off or spike in selling pressure.
SOL/USDT 1-week chart
While things are looking up for Solana price, a breakdown of the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle at around $143 will invalidate the bullish pennant. However, this does not invalidate the bullishness surrounding SOL. In some cases, this downswing could extend, pushing SOL to $130.
Solana Price Prediction: SOL to retest $125
- Solana price continues to consolidate and approaches key breakdown levels.
- Overbought levels in the Relative Strength Index act as consistent resistance to higher prices.
- Failure of support could trigger a flash crash.
Solana price maintains an overwhelmingly bullish bias on the daily Ichimoku chart. The Chikou Span remains above the candlesticks, and the close is above the Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and the Cloud. But the current close is positioned to trigger bearish price action.
Solana price must hold near-term support, threats of downside pressure increase
Solana price has some important price levels to watch out for to prevent bears from taking over. Between $149 and $154, four primary support levels exist: the bottom of the current bear flag, the Tenkan-Sen, the Kijun-Sen and the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A). Below $149, there is no support for Solana within the Ichimoku system until Senkou Span B at $125. But it could move lower.
Below $125 Solana price runs into a very thin 2021 Volume Profile. It is very possible that any break of $125 could drag Solana lower towards the weekly Kijun-Sen and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $116. However, a move that low from the present value area is likely to occur only if there is a broader sell-off within the whole cryptocurrency market.
SOL/USDT Daily Ichimoku Chart
However, Solana bears shouldn’t be overly confident about an impending sell-off. Solana will benefit from any bullish sentiment if Bitcoin has substantial bullish support after its futures ETF listing. Any near-term bearish bias will be invalidated if Solana price closes at or above $173. From there, Solana is on the road to pushing beyond its all-time highs and into the $300 value areas.