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Does Evergrande’s $300B debt crisis pose systemic risk to the crypto industry?

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Amid speculation as to whether China’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group, will default on its $300 billion in debts, analysts are wondering whether the firm’s collapse could pose contagion risks for the crypto industry.

On Sept. 8, Fitch Ratings asserted it “appears probable” that Evergrande will default on its debts, with the firm having since conceded that it will be unable to sell properties or other assets in its possession quickly enough to service its rapidly mounting debts.

In a Tuesday statement, Evergrande predicts “significant continuing decline in contract sales in September, thereby resulting in the continuous deterioration of cash collection by the Group” and placing “tremendous pressure on the Group’s cash flow and liquidity.” The document added:

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“In view of the difficulties, challenges and uncertainties in improving its liquidity as mentioned above, there is no guarantee that the Group will be able to meet its financial obligations.” 

Australian economist David Llewellyn-Smith recently speculated that leading stablecoin issuer Tether may have exposure to commercial paper issued by the “$300bn debt monster,” warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may comprise one of Entergrande’s counterparties through Tether’s (USDT) dominance as a BTC pairing. Tether has denied this, however.

Tether’s latest attestation report suggested $30.8 billion of its $62.8 billion in assets are held in commercial paper, with the Financial Times estimating the company would rank among the instrument’s top 10 holders worldwide.

Despite Tether’s claims that it doesn’t hold any commercial paper issued by Evergrande, Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran emphasized that an Evergrande default would “have a huge impact on the commercial paper market” broadly.

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Onlookers fear that Evergrande’s collapse could have far-reaching implications for the commercial paper market, with Reuters describing the firm as “the biggest issuer of commercial papers” representing $32 billion worth of the asset as of late 2020.

“Currently both Tether and Circle hold commercial paper, and while I think it unlikely that either would have large swaths of Evergrande bonds, the whole market will reel a bit.”

“I do think both of those will still have more than enough wiggle room to prevent any actual meltdown, but if we have a meltdown that gets really bad, they certainly could get a bit off peg,” he added.

July audits of USD Coin (USDC) issuer Circle revealed that 9% of the firm’s assets were then held in commercial paper.

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William Fong, a senior trader at Australian crypto investment firm Zerocap, predicts that Evergrande’s debt crisis will culminate in default and government intervention, suggesting the wholesale economic collapse some onlookers are anticipating is unlikely.

“More likely is that the group goes into administration and the fall is cushioned by the authorities,” he said, adding it’s highly unlikely that Evergrande bondholders will see full repayment.

Fong believes the potential fall-out for the crypto industry, should Evergrande default, remains to be seen, noting that some investors “may diversify away from traditional bond market allocations into less correlated asset classes.”

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However, investors “could also shift funding into safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury debt,” he added.

Other analysts believe Evergrande is already causing havoc in the international markets, with Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway noting that yields on junk-rated debt have spiked to their highest level since March 2020.

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According to anonymous local sources cited by Bloomberg, China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has informed banks that Evergrande will not be meeting its repayments this coming week. 

The sources claim Evergrande is still exploring whether it can obtain extensions or roll over some of its loans, adding that authorities in Guangdong have rejected a bailout request from the company’s founder.

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Here Is When To Expect Cardano-Based Decentralized Exchanges, According to Charles Hoskinson

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Cardano (ADA) creator Charles Hoskinson is revealing that decentralized exchanges are just weeks away from arriving on the sixth-largest blockchain by market cap.

Hoskinson says in a tweet that he’s “really proud” of the team behind SundaeSwap, a decentralized trading protocol on Cardano, which will launch its testnet on December 5th. The purpose of a testnet is to identify bugs, if any, as well as potential bottlenecks and inefficiencies prior to the mainnet launch.

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According to the Cardano creator and the CEO of Cardano-focused development firm Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), decentralized exchanges (DEXes) could arrive on the sixth-largest blockchain by market cap during or just before the Christmas holiday.

“Really proud of this team for all their hard work and getting things done so quickly. I don’t imagine they’ll be on the testnet for long. With any luck, looks like Dexes are coming just in time for/around Christmas.”

The expected unveiling of the SundaeSwap decentralized exchange is coming weeks after Cardano entered the smart contract era following the successful Alonzo hard fork.

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In a statement, SundaeSwap says it will “provide a detailed roadmap towards launch” but does not specify a date.

SundaeSwap’s announcement is coming days after IOHK upgraded the Cardano network after recording a surge in usage. The number of transactions per day had shot to 200,000 in November of 2021 from 10,000 a year earlier, according to IOHK.

The latest upgrade by IOHK will see the block size on Cardano increased by 12.5% in order to raise the number of transactions that can be processed in a second.

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ADA is trading at $1.71 at the time of writing.

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Is Cardano Ready to Rally? Analyst Benjamin Cowen Updates Outlook on Sixth-Largest Crypto Asset

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After facing a significant price pullback since September, Cardano (ADA) is finally demonstrating “signs of life,” according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.

Cowen tells his 638,000 YouTube subscribers that its critical ADA breaks back above what he calls the “bull market support band,” which is a combination of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

“The work we have to do is first we need to get back above the bull market support band, and if you look, it’s all the way up at $1.94-$2.05…

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It’s like there’s a pulse. There’s a pulse. It’s doing something, but we’ve still got a long way to go, my friends.”

The analyst says he’s envisioning that ADA will break back to the upside sometime between now and late March.

Cardano is seeing a significant increase in users and transactions after it deployed smart contract capability in September, according to a recent blog post from Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), the technology company responsible for building the project.

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ADA is trading at $1.69 at time of writing after surging nearly 9% in the past 24 hours. However, the sixth-ranked crypto asset by market cap is still down more than 45% from its all-time high of $3.09, which it hit on September 2nd.

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Cardano’s ADA Token Rallies Ahead of DEX Testnet Launch

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The Cardano network’s native token ADA rose in the market today ahead of an expected testnet launch for one of the blockchain’s first decentralized exchanges (DEXs), SundaeSwap, this weekend.

At 11:00 UTC on Friday, ADA was up by 4.8% over the past 24 hours to a price of USD 1.66, making it today’s best performer among the native tokens of the major smart contract protocols. 

However, the price remained down by more than 7% over the past two weeks, significantly underperforming its competitor ethereum (ETH), which rose by nearly 15% over the same time period.

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The rise today follows an announcement from the team behind the Cardano-based DEX SundaeSwap that it is set to launch a testnet version of its exchange on Sunday, December 5.

Given that the launch for now is on a testnet and not a mainnet, SundaeSwap said that they are “expecting bugs” and are “eager to hear about them.” The purpose of the launch is  to “to identify any bugs that come from being used by thousands of users with fresh eyes,” the team further wrote.

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The launch of SundaeSwap’s testnet this weekend follows the rather unsuccessful launch of Minswap, another DEX built for Cardano, in September this year.

Back then, several users reported problems with making token swaps on the first-ever DEX built on Cardano. The problems were described by Cardano as a “concurrency issue,” but according to critics such as the Ethereum advocate Anthony Sassano, it was more likely the result of a “fundamental issue” of Cardano.

To this date, Minswap is still not available, with the team writing in its latest development update from November that they have pushed back a planned December launch of the DEX in order to “not rush things” and “avoid unnecessary rumors.”

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Meanwhile, according to Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, DEX trading on Cardano’s mainnet is getting closer to reality. Commenting on the progress in a tweet on Wednesday, Hoskinson said DEXs are coming “just in time for/around Christmas.”

Further, today’s rise in the price of ADA also follows certain signs which earlier in the week showed a strong increase in network activity on Cardano.

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According to data from Messari, the number of active addresses on Cardano surged to its highest level ever last week, with 485,693 addresses active at the peak on November 22. The surge in activity came even as the price of ADA was declining.

And although the number of active addresses on Cardano as of Sunday fell almost back to where it started the week, the spike is still part of a longer-term uptrend in activity on the network.

Over the course of the year, the number of active addresses has risen from 19,881 on January 1 to 178,318 as of December 2.

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Source: Messari

Lastly, Cardano development firm Input Output said in a blog post last week that it intends to increase the block size on the network by 12.5% in order to accommodate more traffic ahead of the launch of DEXs and other decentralized applications (dapps).

“Because of the anticipated rise in traffic as developers roll out new dApps, the block size is quickly becoming a key consideration. Larger block sizes mean that more transactions can fit into a block, thus providing greater capacity for users,” Input Output’s Director of Cardano Architecture, John Woods, wrote in the article.

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