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The ‘if and when’ of XRP making it to $1.5

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Owing to the lawsuit developments, XRP and Ripple Labs have consistently been in the news over the past few months. However, the alt has been in the spotlight of late for a different reason.

After several weeks of voting, the proposal to lower XRP Ledger’s reserve requirement was passed a day back. As per the new requisite, the minimum reserve has been lowered from 20 XRP tokens to 10 XRP tokens. As such, a certain number of tokens are required to be held by users when they open a new account on the ledger, to defend the protocol from malignant attacks.

The reserve requirement can be changed if there is a consensus amongst the network’s validators. Such alterations become necessary as and when XRP’s price rises. So, is it feasible to expect XRP’s price to dramatically rise anytime soon?

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XRP’s withering state

The past 24-hours have not been kind to XRP. The sixth largest coin shed over 10% of its value in the aforementioned time window. Notably, the alt was trading well-below the $1 mark at press time.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Fundamentals to the rescue?

Source: Messari

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The state of XRP’s NVT ratio seemed to be at an interesting juncture at the time of writing. As seen from the chart attached above, the current level is at par with July’s levels. This ratio gauges the relationship between market cap and transfer volumes and is quite congruent to the traditional financial world’s price to earnings ratio.

A high NVT implies the network value is outpacing the value being transferred on to the network. Whenever this ratio spiked in recent past, the alt’s price seldom reacted positively. Thus, expecting a flip in XRP’s price downtrend doesn’t make much sense at this stage.

Further, the risk adjusted return ratios also seemed to be dwindling at the time of writing. That being said, it should be noted that the alt’s Sharpe Ratio plummeted from 9 to 2 in just the past one-month. Further, XRP’s Sortino Ratio too seemed to be quite low [0.101] when compared to its peers.

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As can be inferred from the chart attached, this ratio for XRP’s tug of war competitor, Solana, currently stood at 0.35. In fact, the Sortino Ratio for XRP’s other peers like DOT and LUNA too stood substantially higher at press time. Thus, in terms of price rise and risk-adjusted returns, XRP’s peers present themselves as relatively superior options.

Source: Macroaxis

Having observed the state of the aforementioned ratios, it becomes quite evident that the odds of XRP’s price rising above $1.5 in the coming days are quite slim. However, if some major positive development takes place with respect to the on-going lawsuit, the token’s price might end up reacting positively.

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XRP Price Prediction: Ripple momentum weakens as bears contemplate 15% decline

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  • XRP price dropped below a crucial support level on November 26, possibly unraveling a bearish forecast.
  • The governing technical pattern suggests that Ripple could see a decline of 15%.
  • To avoid the pessimistic outlook, XRP would need to climb above $1.07.

XRP price fell below an essential line of defense on November 26, opening up the possibility of further decline for Ripple. The cross-border remittance token is now struggling to tag higher levels as selling pressure increases.

XRP price faces minor sell-off

XRP price has sliced below the lower boundary of the ascending parallel channel pattern on the daily chart, unraveling a bearish outlook. The prevailing chart pattern suggests a 22% decline from the downside trend line from $1.03.

XRP price may discover its first line of defense at $0.92, where the support line given by the Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) sits. The following foothold will emerge at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.86. If investors continue to engage in profit-taking, Ripple may drop lower to tag the bearish target at $0.79, resulting in a 15% descent.

If a massive spike in sell orders occurs, XRP price may drop even lower, exceeding the aforementioned target, reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.70, corresponding to the July 30 low.

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The Arms Index (TRIN) which gauges overall market sentiment suggests that there are substantially more sellers than buyers in the market.

XRPUSDT

XRP/USDT daily chart

If the bulls decide to step in to undo the bearish narrative, XRP price will face immediate resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.96, coinciding with the 50% retracement level.

XRP price may have a chance at restoring its uptrend if it climbs back above the downside trend line of the parallel channel at $1.07, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a stiff hurdle may appear close by at $1.11, where the 21-, 50- and 100-day SMAs intersect. 

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An acceleration of interest in Ripple may see XRP price ascend higher toward the middle boundary of the prevailing chart pattern at $1.25.

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Ripple Price Analysis: XRP spikes to $0.91, support found?

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  • Ripple price analysis is bullish for the rest of the day.
  • XRP/USD saw heavy selling earlier today.
  • Support found around $0.91. 

Ripple price analysis is bullish today as a strong lower low has been set at $0.91, with buying pressure returning right now. Therefore, we expect bears to be exhausted, leading XRP/USD higher later today.

Ripple Price Analysis: XRP spikes to $0.91, support found? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The market has seen strong selling pressure over the last 24 hours. The market leaders, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are down by 6.07 and 7.1 percent, while Ripple (XRP) has lost almost 9 percent.

Ripple price movement in the last 24 hours: Ripple breaks $1.02 support, finds support at $0.91

XRP/USD traded in a range of $0.9367 – $1.06, indicating strong volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 35.61 percent, totaling $4.27 billion, while the total market cap trades around $44.745 billion, ranking the coin in 7th place overall.

XRP/USD 4-hour chart: XRP looks to reverse from $0.91

On the 4-hour chart, we can see slight rejection for further downside for the Ripple price as bears are exhausted after a strong selloff earlier today.

Ripple Price Analysis: XRP spikes to $0.91, support found?
XRP/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Ripple price has seen consolidation in an increasingly tighter range above $0.102 support over the past week. The $1.02 mark was initially reached on the 18th of November after a strong decline from the $1.35 previous major swing high.

Despite the $1.02 support holding, further lower lows were set over the week, slowly building up pressure in the market. Yesterday, another lower high was set at $1.06, leading to more downside overnight.

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Ripple price continued lower to $1.02 when a sharp break lower was finally seen over the past hours. Currently, XRP/USD has found low around $0.91, likely leading to recovery over the next 24 hours.

Ripple Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Ripple price analysis is bullish today as further downside currently gets rejected after a spike to $0.91 earlier today. Therefore, XRP/USD has likely found a new low, leading to a retracement over the next 24 hours.

While waiting for Ripple to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.

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XRP holds key support while indicators point to short-term recovery

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  • Ripple started a recovery wave above a key support level of $1.024. 
  • XRP price started an upside correction as indicators suggest a short-term recovery.
  • The coin may initiate a fresh downtrend upon a breakout of the $1.024 support level.

XRP is in the process of forming a triple bottom price pattern boding more upside, for the pair priced against the US dollar., XRP price recently found support at the pattern’s base during the formation of the third bottom. Now, Ripple is at a crossroads – a spike in selling pressure may drive a bearish breakout, whilst technical indicators signal a bullish reversal. It all depends on whether or not a critical support level holds. 

XRP rejected above the triple bottom at $1

XRP has found support above $1.024 and started a bullish recovery similar to peer altcoins. The XRP price has found footing at the $1.024 level for the third time making it a triple bottom pattern.

If there is increased demand at the current price level it will push the XRP price towards its double top level at $1.108. However, the 20 and 50-period exponential moving averages may act as minor hurdles at $1.076 and $1.108. 

The MACD has closed the first histogram above the 0 mark, indicating a bullish reversal. While the RSI is still holding at 44, a crossover above 50 may encourage investors to go long. In that case, the XRP price might spike towards $1.165. Additional gains could lift the price towards the next key hurdles at $1.218 or $1.284 

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 Ripple 12-hourly chart - Triple bottom to drive uptrend

 XRP 12-hourly chart – Triple bottom to drive uptrend

If XRP disappoints to start a new spike above the $1.081 level, it could extend losses. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.024 level.

The upward trend that started on September 21 also extends to significant support at the $1.024 mark. Therefore, a break below the $1.024 support level might push the price further down. The next critical support level is near $0.963, below which the price may fall to the $0.888 level.

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