The stars are older than all of us, and older than history itself. Yet bring up astrology with the Bitcoin crowd, and for the most part the response is skepticism or even mockery. Both the study and the cryptocurrency itself share several similarities, such as a mathematical foundation, cyclical behaviors, and unusual financial applications.
If you are the type to believe, or are just curious, a notable full moon is passing, leading into the autumnal equinox tomorrow. How might this seasonal shift impact the cryptocurrency market trend, and how does math apply to what many believe to be pure myth?
September Harvest Moon Could Bring Bounty For Hard Summer Work
Planets all revolve around the sun. Their position at the time each person is born and there forth is believed to instill certain influences at distinct moments. Depending on the rotation and layout of the planets, it can have all kinds of seasonal impacts. The Farmer’s Almanac uses such cycles to predict how much snow each winter holds, for example.
Certain conjunctions are said to bring about famine, drought, or worse. For example, historians believe that a a triple conjunction of Saturn, Jupiter and Mars caused the Black Death plague.
The late WD Gann used planetary influences along with math to predict tops and bottoms with “legendary” precision. He taught no one his tricks, but left all kinds of bizarre mathematical tools behind that few know how to take advantage of.
So how does this all impact Bitcoin?
The Harvest full moon hasn't appeared on the chart yet its so fresh | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The new moon and full moon chart alone shows significant correlation with Bitcoin price action. Just last night as BTC plunged near $40,000, the full Harvest moon and last full moon of the summer was passing. The moon was named for the fact that farmers used the moon’s light to work late into the night on annual harvests ahead of colder months.
It has been a long, arduous summer for crypto holders, but this moon could be a sign that its time to reap the fruit of one’s labors as the autumn equinox hits.
Could The Fall And Golden Ratio Be The Key To The Next Bitcoin Peak?
The equinox signals change is coming. Change in the season; change in the way humans behave based on those seasons. Seasonality in finance is real, hence the phrase “sell in May, and go away.” The opposite idea is called the Halloween Effect, where investors buy up assets big time to sell around the holidays when enthusiasm is highest.
Seasonality and equinoxes don’t always work with the first ever cryptocurrency, but when combined with the power of the Harvest full moon and other favorable mathematical positioning, there is a recipe for something special.
After holding above the golden ratio, the final leg up comes in the autumn | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Each final leg up in each Bitcoin bull run has begun at the autumnal equinox, driving to new all-time highs until the winter equinox arrives. Since fall arrives each year, but the same effect doesn’t occur, the necessary ingredient for liftoff is a pullback to the golden ratio.
Bitcoin price has always retraced back to the golden ratio, before blasting off to the end of the cycle. Below it has never been filled no matter the cycle. If the same scenario plays out, anyone that has survived the summer’s bearish heat, will have a very happy holiday season.
To be fully clear, everything written here is pure conjecture based on correlation and past cycles and performance. These aren’t a guarantee of future results. But when the math adds up and Fibonacci is everywhere in nature, why wouldn’t the sum of the full moon, autumnal equinox, and Bitcoin be something very interesting.
Bitcoin Doesn’t Work as a Form of Payment, According to Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky – Here’s Why
The CEO of crypto lending platform Celsius does not think that Bitcoin (BTC) has the correct properties to become a suitable payment option.
In a new interview on Coin Stories, Alex Mashinsky offers a contrasting picture between the qualities of the US dollar and the leading cryptocurrency.
“I’d much rather be in a scenario where the dollar remains as the reserve currency but Bitcoin continues to do very well…
The dollar is a phenomenal form of payment. It’s a horrible store of value and Bitcoin is a phenomenal store value, but it’s a pretty bad form of payment.”
Mashinsky highlights that it is not a great idea to use Bitcoin to pay for goods and services as he says that people who have done so in the past often regret making the transaction.
“If you fell for Elon Musk’s deal where he gave you a Tesla for two or three Bitcoins, obviously you hate driving that Tesla because you would in a second go back and take those three Bitcoins and return the Tesla, which lost value during the same period of time.
Anything you bought with Bitcoin in the last 10 years, you rather have the Bitcoin back and would have paid in US dollars. That’s really the crux of the matter that you cannot use it as a form of payment or cannot use it in a way that makes you happy about the transaction.”
Is Bitcoin Officially in Bear Territory? Crypto Analyst Michaël van de Poppe Analyzes State of BTC After Deep Pullback
A widely followed crypto strategist and trader is looking at the state of Bitcoin to determine whether the largest crypto asset by market cap has crossed bear territory.
Hours before the deep crypto pullback, analyst Michaël van de Poppe told his 518,000 Twitter followers that he was expecting Bitcoin to correct hard and leave an impression that the bull market is over.
“The scenario is very simple.
- People expected a peak bull run in December. Not happening.
- Let the market correct due to that.
- People will expect a bear market at the low (approx. $47,000-$50,000).
- Moon the markets and leave everyone behind.
With Bitcoin trading below $50,000, Van de Poppe says BTC is still in a bull market and highlights that he believes the correction is now over.
“Overall, this should be the low of a standard 30-40% correction in the markets.
However, corrections are super wicky the past few years in Bitcoin as there’s such a massive amount of leverage in the markets.
Through that, we overshoot.
But all good, should be done now.”
Looking at the charts, Van de Poppe says there’s a decent chance that Bitcoin will launch a V-shaped reversal or a sharp rally where BTC revisits its all-time high around $69,000 by early next year.
“Rounding off the day with this chart on Bitcoin.
I think that the chances for a V-shape recovery are there.
We’ll see coming week how it unfolds, but these bounces are significant and good.”
Bitcoin is exchanging hands at $48,994, down over 7% in the last 24 hours.
This Bitcoin fractal predicted the fall, but here’s the next price target
Bitcoin, along with the larger crypto-market, dropped the ball after the most recent price fall had echoes of 19 May’s crash. With BTC shedding 25% of its value in a matter of a few hours, the market seemed to reset to its September-end levels. While it was trading around the $49k-mark at press time, for a brief moment, it did tread close to $42,000 too.
The aforementioned price fall led to a mass wipeout, giving way to over $2.5 billion liquidations across the market. Ergo, the question – Does the macro bullish outlook for Bitcoin remain intact?
The dip was overdue
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price had been in a falling wedge structure since the 16 November crash. Looking at the larger structure for the past month, it can be argued that the latest crash to the $42k level was overdue.
During the previous major corrections too, the price had broken below this level in May and then again, in late June. However, it has always managed to hold it.
In fact, this level has acted as a support for the +100% rally from July to November. Thus, as long as the weekly closes above or at least around the 1W MA50, BTCUSD has a legitimate probability of forming support there and starting a new rally.
Interestingly, an RSI fractal seemed also to be in play here. As noted in the chart above, a similar RSI structure was seen from mid-2019 to early 2020, as seen from early 2021 to the time of writing. The key catalyst in both cases was the sell-off due to COVID fears.
However, this crash was more of a combination of multiple factors like the panic among retail investors, tech market crash, over-leveraged crypto-markets, high Open Interest, positive funding rate, and so on.
So, what’s next?
For now, while the price has rebounded, another fall to the lower $40k-level cannot be discarded.
However, BTC’s two main utility indicators continue to rise – A good signal. BTC’s token circulation and its daily active addresses, at press time, sat at a 6-month high. In fact, they seemed likely to continue their uptrend too.
Furthermore, the estimated leverage ratio dropped by 22% in just one day. This was last seen in September when the price dropped by 24% and touched $40k.
At the time of writing, the biggest takeaway as BTC’s price rebounded from its lower levels seemed to be that the market dynamics have been looking very different than previous cycles.
Even though volatility was still high, the market seemed to move from FOMO-induced price tops and sell-offs to more mature and sustainable growth while flushing leverage. Nonetheless, with the price structure still tilting towards bearish, despite the bounce, it would be best to be cautious.