Seasoned Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are about to spark a new price run-up by hoarding BTC, data reveals this week.
According to on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, the Bitcoin supply is due to put in a fresh ageing process.
1-year-old supply bottoms out
Highlighting its active supply metric, Glassnode researchers noted that the percentage of the Bitcoin supply which last moved a year ago or more is forming a local bottom.
Under such circumstances in the past, holders or “hodlers,” fresh from selling those older coins, then began accumulating, making the overall dormant supply age increase. This in turn created a “supply squeeze” where demand increased relative to the BTC available, and price benefited as a result. Selling recommenced into the local price top, whereupon the process began again.
Such a circular pattern was in play in late 2017 during Bitcoin’s run to $20,000, and the April 2021 all-time high appears to be no exception.
The numbers, however, are different between the two years.
“The Bitcoin supply that has been dormant for at least 1yr is starting to bottom out at 54.2%. Compared to the 2017 top, this indicates that a larger relative proportion of BTC remains in cold storage,” Glassnode commented.
“However it also indicates the spending of fewer coins ‘put the 2021 top in.’”
More and more “hodlers of last resort”
Cointelegraph frequently reports on hodler behavior and cohorts of BTC of different ages influencing the market.
Most recently, data showed that overall, strong hands now control more of the BTC supply than at any time since October 2020.
The slice of the pie belonging to speculative traders likewise continues to see local resets during deleveraging events such as those in May and September this year.
Morgan Creek’s Mark Yusko Issues Crypto Warning, Says Bitcoin Pullback Likely
After Bitcoin’s positive price action this month, Morgan Creek Capital Management’s CEO thinks it’s possible BTC is bracing for a short-term pullback.
Mark Yusko, who also serves as chief investment officer of the investment management firm, tells CNBC in a new interview that Bitcoin faces a “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk.ADVERTISEMENT
“We saw this in the lead-up to El Salvador making Bitcoin a legal tender. There was a big run-up and then the day after the announcement, there was a little mini-crash. So I think there’s some risk of that around October 27th when we find out which, if any – and I think it will actually be multiple – of the [BTC exchange-traded funds] are approved.”
Yusko adds that he wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a “little consolidation” in BTC’s short-term future.
“Look, we’re up 40% this month, which is only 15 days old, and we’re up over 110% year-to-date, so a pause that refreshes, given how overbought we are right now, wouldn’t surprise me.”
Yusko also highlights the potential factors that can push the price of Bitcoin higher once the narrative involving the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF) runs out of steam.
“The next catalysts to your question are seeing increasing adoption [and] seeing increasing numbers of use cases. Those numbers all look really good. The hash rate is something to watch that has come back dramatically since the China ban on the miners.”
The hash rate is a Bitcoin mining metric that measures the processing power of the BTC network. An increased hash rate indicates greater security and higher resistance to network attacks.
The Morgan Creek CEO also mentions the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which attempts to predict the price of crypto by measuring the amount of new supply entering the market per year compared to the amount of supply already in existence.
“There are a lot of people that think we can hit $100,000 by the end of the year. The stock-to-flow model says we should. And then there’s the speculative nature that price usually blows right through value.”
Bitcoin is trading at $61,949.33 at time of writing, up more than 13% in the past week, according to CoinGecko.
ProShares debuts trailblazing bitcoin ETF on NYSE
- ProShares gets the Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) nod to launch a Bitcoin (BTC)-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF). The trailblazing ETF will list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the $BITO ticker.
- SEC’s approval falls short of the market that’s pushing for a BTC spot-based ETF. The US is lagging in approving these types of products as other countries make strides.
ProShares has confirmed that it is debuting its much anticipated bitcoin-linked ETF. The trailblazing BTC futures tracking product goes live on the NYSE on Tuesday. It’ll trade under the $BITO ticker.
Its listing follows the SEC’s approval of ProShare’s application to offer the product. Investors can now access the leading crypto without having to hold it.
Michael L. Sapir, ProShares CEO, says the approval has been a longtime coming. He holds that $BITO will expose BTC enthusiasts to the asset within a regulated environment.
Additionally, they needn’t open new accounts with crypto providers. Instead, they can use their existing brokerage ones to trade.
The SEC’s nod for the EFT has been in the works for sometime. Its chair, Gary Gensler, has previously let on the regulator’s preference for BTC futures ETFs over spot-linked ones. So it isn’t a surprise that ProShares got the greenlight now.
ProShares listing falls short of market expectations
Although positive, the move falls short of many BTC enthusiasts’ expectations. A majority of them have been clamouring for BTC spot-based ETFs. But the SEC has been reluctant to approve those citing price manipulation concerns.
This stance has forced some institutional investors to move abroad searching for more accepting markets. Ark Investments, for instance, has listed a BTC spot tracking ETF in Canada.
As the US is lagging in approving BTC-linked spot ETFs, other nations are embracing them. Canada and Brazil have allowed the listing of these products in both BTC and ETH. The crypto community is positive that the US will follow suit.
ProShares’ approval and listing is a big win for the budding crypto industry. Ian Balana of Token Metrics says it’s the SEC’s most important endorsement of crypto.
Balana says the move is indicative of regulators ceding ground on their objections over the asset class. To him this action opens the floodgates of new capital entering the space.
Other firms are lining up for approval
Upto 10 firms have unsuccessfully sought leave to offer spot-based BTC EFTs. The SEC rejected them though,arguing that they’re prone to manipulation.
Besides ProShares, several other BTC futures are coming up for review this October. These include Van Eck, Valkyrie and Invesco. Barring the regulator’s objections they’ll be able to list seventy five days after completing their paperwork.
Futures based ETFs allow you to directly invest in BTC. In the contract, you agree to trade the asset in the future at a set price. This ETF doesn’t track the asset’s price rather the asset’s cash settlements.
To analysts, ProShares approval sets the pace for acceptance of spot based ETFs. Today, the crypto market has advanced greatly since the initial round of applications.
Bitcoin has responded positively to the development. Following the listing it appreciated by 2% to close at $62,041.84 on Monday. The market waits to see if it’ll surpass it’s all time high of $ 64,800.
ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF Generates $500 Million Trading Volume in First Hour
The first bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) listed in the United States, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, has generated a trading volume of over $500 million in its first trading hour, making it one of the top ETFs by trading volume on launch day.
According to available data the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which was listed on the New York Stock Exchange today, has already seen 14.9 million shares change hands since listing, has already reached a $42.149 high and a $40.07 low.
Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has pointed out on social media that in the first 20 minutes after being listed the ETF, under the ticker BITO, traded $280 million worth of shares, putting in the “top 15 opening day launches of all-time,” surpassing ETFs tracking the price of gold and the Nasdaq index.
$BITO officially over half a billion in volume. Almost all of it is small trades. Unknown how much natural vs some flipping. The spread is a penny wide and the price is moving in line with its INAV (which is good). pic.twitter.com/v8r9q7O2AH— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 19, 2021
The analyst pointed out that it’s unclear how much of the bitcoin futures ETFs trading volume was natural and how much was from traders making a profit on the opening day’s volatility.
When ProShares confirmed the ETF was being listed, its CEO Michael L. Sapir said the firm believes “a multitude of investors have been eagerly awaiting the launch of a bitcoin-linked ETF after years of efforts to launch one,”
Other bitcoin futures ETF applications are hoping to move forward with trading this month, so a second futures-based bitcoin ETF could launch in the near future. A bitcoin ETF being approved in the U.S. is the culmination of a nearly decade-long campaign to list such a product.
Crypto advocates have been looking to list an ETF ever since Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the founder of the Gemini exchange, filed the first Bitcoin ETF application in 2013. Bitcoin’s price has moved up significantly on the ETF listing expectations and is now trading close to $63,500.