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Avalanche (AVAX)

Emin Gun Sirer Avalanche (AVAX) Comments on Chinese Real Estate Developers and Crypto Markets

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Emin Gun Sirer expressed: “Is this the day when the crypto markets realize that they are far more resilient to Chinese real estate developers than they think they are?”

Community response:  No, because if there will be a collapse for Evergrande, it will affect all economies in the world included crypto era.

Some say the opposite that it will not have a global effect and that even Communist government wants it to collapse to be able to shift the money from construction to semiconductors and other tech fields.

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In the long term, the Chinese government seems to be happy with the macroeconomic consequence of the controlled demolition of Evergrande for a few reasons. 1. It helps to free the liquidity from the real-estate black hole to be channeled into more productive industries such as semiconductors, biotech etc. 2. Debt-to-equity/ownership conversion goes along with the overall trend of nationalizing high-quality assets in China. 3. It seems to accomplish the geopolitical goal of not rewarding Australia with higher iron prices.

As a result, the likelihood of an Evergrande rescue is currently <2%. Restructuring, and a partial nationalization over a 2-3 year time-frame is probably the path of least resistance. And, the contagion effect to the US market is likely to be minimum.

Practically, after the short-term emotional sell-off is over, US equity market is probably going back to whatever track it was on before the Evergrande default.

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Many of the upper management of Evergrande somehow managed to pull off early-redemption of their own shares of these high-yield products. And now Evergrande pretends to get some change back from these folks.

Protestors are probably very busy right now, trying to figure out the actual value of these “in-kind” properties as repayment before the Oct 1st holiday, and the most newsworthy part of the crisis may take a break next week.

To put this into context, the APR of these wealth-management products vary between 14%-25% on their original term sheet. And, many of those “in-kind” properties are located in some relatively remote part of China (i.e. 4-5th tier cities).

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It will now repay these debtors (40Bn RMB) over 10 quarters @ 0% APR, or in-kind using condos/retail-space/parking-space that are still under construction (30-50% chance that they may never finish), or to offset future payments debtors may owe to Evergrande.

The default on these wealth-management product (40Bn RMB) is no small matter, but the bigger issue is the 2Tr RMB liability of the entire company. Right now, Evergrande consider this crisis as a liquidity crisis, i.e. its asset value > its liability

The protests have been disproportionally over-covered by the media, because most of the holds of these now toxic assets are friends & families of the current employees of Evergrande. i.e. people with some insider knowledge on how to make the company look bad.

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The Evergrande incident did shake the crypto space a bit, but as Emin says, crypto markets would prove their resilience.

Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche dethrones Terra, but here’s what may be next

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Solana has been tough competition in the DeFi space, but Avalanche is looking to take it on soon. Previously, it only had Terra as a competitor since it was still far away from overtaking Solana. Interestingly, Avalanche might do that if it manages to maintain its growth on the charts.

Avalanche in Decentralized Finance

Curiously, Solana replaced Terra to take the third spot. And now, Avalanche has pushed Terra further below as it has taken its fourth spot. Even so, Ethereum continues to dominate the DeFi space.


Top 10 DeFi chains | Source: DeFi Llama – AMBCrypto

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At the time of writing, Avalanche was only $1.1 billion away from taking the third spot from Solana.

Over the month, Avalanche’s TVL has recorded a 62% growth from $8 billion to hit $13.9 billion.

Avalanche TVL | Source: DeFi Llama – AMBCrypto

Avalanche was led by the explosive rise of some major protocols on the network such as Cook finance, Blizz Finance, and Wonderland, among others. Ergo, it is seeing a myriad of investors participating in the network, making the network’s growth actually organic.

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Its overall network development is also decent, growing every day. However, when it comes to how it can be a threat/competition to Solana, the answer isn’t exactly one-directional. Especially since Solana and Avalanche are equally tough.

For starters, the participation boom on Avalanche has led to the revenue figures crossing $1 million and touching $1.9 million at its peak. Solana, on the other contrary, flashed figures of only $280k per day.

Avalanche and Solana total revenue | Source: TokenTerminal

But, in terms of overall trading volumes, the figures are led by Solana with Avalanche trailing somewhat. 

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Avalanche and Solana total trading volumes | Source: TokenTerminal

Notably, social volumes also seemed to indicate that Solana has been slightly more popular and wanted than Avalanche.

Avalanche and Solana social volumes | Source: Santiment – AMBCrypto

However, Avalanche still remains comparatively more attractive given its growing adoption and integration. Consider the latest example, for instance – OlympusDAO.

This is more so because it offers significantly higher risk-adjusted returns, when compared to Solana. This does play an important role in driving investors towards the network.

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Additionally, with a growth rate of 17% observed over the last four days, AVAX, at press time, was only 9% away from hitting a new all-time high. Hence, the future might see more investors entering the Avalanche market when that happens.

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Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance

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  • Avalanche price analysis is bullish today.
  • AVAX/USD is stuck at $124 resistance level.
  • Support is present at $119.5.

The AVAX price analysis is bullish for today, but despite the bullish momentum, the coin is finding it hard to move past the $124 resistance. The current bullish momentum started on 29th November but lost its energy on 30th November as the buying slowed down, which is the driving force behind it. However, today bulls again gathered some strength and took the AVAX price noticeably upwards, and now they are facing trouble at a $124 crucial resistance level.

AVAX/USD 1-day price chart: Bulls need more strength

The 1-day Avalanche price analysis shows bulls have covered an upwards range from $121 to $124 today will swinging as high as $127 at a point today. The AVAX/USD pair is trading hands at $124 at the time of writing, reporting an increase in price value by 3.94 percent. On the other hand, the week

ly gain is quite low, accumulating to only 0.68 percent, the reason being the downward trend during the start of the week when AVAX was reverting back from its ATH at $135. AVAX’s trading volume has increased by almost 52 percent and the market cap by 5.93 percent over the last 24 hours.

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance 1

The volatility is high for the AVAX/USD pair as the Bollinger bands are expanded with the upper band at $138, which represents resistance level as the price is below this level, and the lower band is at the $85 mark. The mean average of the indicator represents support for the crypto pair at the $111 mark.

The relative strength index (RSI) is trading on a slight upwards slope, hinting at a little more buying activity, which started on 29th November in the market. The RSI is still in the upper half of the neutral zone, and for the coin to move above $124, the RSI needs to be near the borderline of the overbought region.

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Avalanche price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indications

The 4-hour price chart for Avalanche price analysis shows that the coin spiked high after the price breakout upwards, but after 4-hours, selling pressure also kicked in as the resistance at $124 is strong, and AVAX needs more support for a breakthrough.

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance 2
AVAX/USD 4-hours price chart. Source: TradingView

The volatility is increasing for AVAX/USD, The upper Bollinger band is now at $217, representing resistance for AVAX as the price trades below the upper band, and the lower Bollinger band is present at the $102 mark. The RSI curve is also downwards, indicating the selling pressure at the moment, as it travels down at index 60.

Avalanche price analysis conclusion

The Avalanche price analysis shows the coin is in bullish momentum, but bulls need more support to make a push through above $124 resistance. The 4-hour chart also shows high pressure at this time, but there are ample chances for AVAX bulls to get the required support in the coming hours, and the AVAX may start its journey above $124.

The volatility is high for the AVAX/USD pair as the Bollinger bands are expanded with the upper band at $138, which represents resistance level as the price is below this level, and the lower band is at the $85 mark. The mean average of the indicator represents support for the crypto pair at the $111 mark.

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The relative strength index (RSI) is trading on a slight upwards slope, hinting at a little more buying activity, which started on 29th November in the market. The RSI is still in the upper half of the neutral zone, and for the coin to move above $124, the RSI needs to be near the borderline of the overbought region.

Avalanche price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indications

The 4-hour price chart for Avalanche price analysis shows that the coin spiked high after the price breakout upwards, but after 4-hours, selling pressure also kicked in as the resistance at $124 is strong, and AVAX needs more support for a breakthrough.

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance 2
AVAX/USD 4-hours price chart. Source: TradingView

The volatility is increasing for AVAX/USD, The upper Bollinger band is now at $217, representing resistance for AVAX as the price trades below the upper band, and the lower Bollinger band is present at the $102 mark. The RSI curve is also downwards, indicating the selling pressure at the moment, as it travels down at index 60.

Avalanche price analysis conclusion

The Avalanche price analysis shows the coin is in bullish momentum, but bulls need more support to make a push through above $124 resistance. The 4-hour chart also shows high pressure at this time, but there are ample chances for AVAX bulls to get the required support in the coming hours, and the AVAX may start its journey above $124.

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Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche (AVAX) Parabolic Rally – Is It Over?

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The crypto market has been seeing important corrections lately, but this did not stop the optimistic predictions from hitting the crypto space.

One of the most successful projects lately has been Avalanche and an important analyst is debating whether the coin can go higher in the near future.

Avalanche (AVAX) price prediction

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen addressed whether Avalanche (AVAX) has any gas left in the tank after its parabolic rally.

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Just in case you don’t know, AVAX hit its ATH of nearly $145 over the weekend.

The smart contract platform was trading around $13 at the beginning of August, according to the notes coming from CMC.

Cowen said that AVAX is getting “somewhat extended.”

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On the other hand, he said that Avalanche is at the same level of extension that it was at when it hit $60, and then it more than doubled in price.

Cowen says it would be “concerning” to see the coin get even more extended by continuing to rise in a short period of time.

He also said that AVAX’s US dollar valuation is highly dependent on what Bitcoin (BTC) does.

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“As long as Bitcoin stays above its 20-week moving average, then AXAX can continue to rally until it gets too far gone to sustain it in the short term, and then we’ll have a pullback. But as long as Bitcoin stays healthy, then, of course, AVAX can continue to make a move.”

According to the latest reports coming from the Daily Hodl, Cowen noted that AVAX could go up another 50% against Bitcoin.

AVAX could reach $200

According to the analyst, such a move would price Avalanche at just over $200 if Bitcoin’s value remained steady.

As you probably know by now, BTC has been seeing some corrections lately, but this did not stop excited investors from buying the dip.

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