It has been almost two weeks since Alonzo went live on Cardano’s network. The narrative before the hard fork was largely conformist, one that proclaimed ADA’s price would soon surge to new heights after its release.
The hard fork, however, turned out to be a ‘non-event‘ and did not impact the token’s price much. In fact, in the days that followed the release, ADA’s price dropped to as low as $1.98. Ergo, one may argue that ADA, just like the market’s other tokens, became a victim of the pessimistic broader market trend.
Well, the same holds true to a certain extent, particularly because ADA’s dependency on the market’s other cryptos has increased over the last couple of weeks. In fact, it now shares a correlation of 0.78 and 0.74 with Bitcoin and Ethereum, respectively.
Apart from this, the deteriorating state of on-chain metrics has created a cascading effect on the alt’s price. So, unless and until the same improves, a price trend reversal seems to be out of the question.
State of the network
Well, inspecting the state of the network would give us a fair idea about the direction in which Cardano is heading. As per data from CardanoScan, the transaction count on the network has been quite stagnant over the last couple of days, despite crossing 111k on 17 September.
This, quite obviously, indicates that not many people have been using Cardano’s network of late.
What’s more, the average transfer value too has been spending more time towards the lows of late. Notably, the same witnessed a massive spike during the initial few days of September but subjected itself to a freefall right after that. The active address ratio as well, for that matter, has been on the decline. The same fell from 9.17% to 2.45% over the period between 7 to 24 September.
By and large, this implies that users who have been active are merely trying and testing the network at this stage. One can argue then that the Cardano market is devoid of some solid momentum at the moment.
However, there’s a silver lining to this scenario too.
All’s not lost
As far as Q4 is concerned, a host of launches are already lined up for Cardano. The introduction of Cardax DEX would allow users to trade ADA for other native tokens. Notably, the exchange would have its own utility token – CDX. Further, GREED is also set to launch as one of the blockchain’s first tokens.
Additionally, right from Liqwid, an open-source and non-custodial liquidity protocol, to SingularityNET, a platform that lets users create and monetize AI services at scale, several noteworthy projects are set to make use of Cardano’s ecosystem in the coming weeks. In effect, a new set of users would be using the blockchain.
Thus, unless and until Cardano’s adoption hastens up, a prominent trend reversal seems to be unlikely. In effect, only if the aforementioned future events actually end up contributing to the network’s growth, it would make sense to anticipate a direct impact on the altcoin’s price.
Thus, it’d be interesting to see if the ‘non-event’ tradition continues or Cardano successfully frees itself from the shackles of the same.
Cardano To Explode Very Soon, ADA Price Poised TO Hit $8 Soon!
Cardano after a notable uptrend above $3 adopted a sideways trend for a very prolonged period. And hence, the price was speculated to be stagnant or to be more specific, dead, showcases signs of a major flip ahead. The upcoming rally could lead ADA price towards the immediate target at its ATH initially.
As the crypto space geared up with the Bitcoin price raising ahead of $60,000, many altcoins followed. However, ADA prices remained away from the crowd by maintaining a narrow trend. And therefore lost its position in the top 3 crypto assets based on the market cap. Yet the traders appear to have not lost their interest in the asset.
#Cardano is sitting at $2.13 at this time, and traders' interest in the #4 market cap asset appears to be picking up. Traders on #Binance are longing $ADA to a greater degree than usual as #altcoin movement is picking up against $BTC. https://t.co/yF29mEPTd4 pic.twitter.com/BBc1zqQNDC— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 19, 2021
According to the data from the On-chain analytic platform, Santiment, despite the asset slipping to 4th position, traders continue to long their positions. It could also signify the altcoin momentum gearing up against Bitcoin.
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano price after smashing its highs in early September continued swinging within a symmetrical triangle. After numerous pumps and dumps, the asset is finally on the verge to explode by breaking the pattern.
As the price explodes after breaking the pattern, it appears poised to smash the immediate resistance level that resides around the ATH. However, once the asset trends are in the discovery phase, reaching new highs could be on the cards. According to an analyst, the asset could reach $8 in the near future. But smashing $5 appears imminent for the ADA price.
Hoskinson’s Brief Update: Cardano’s Great Year Ahead
- Cardano Founder — Charles Hoskinson, speaks to the crypto community.
- He catches them up on all things Cardano via a live broadcast.
- After the smart contract launch, Cardano will now move to bring scalability.
Founder of Cardano (ADA) — Charles Hoskinson, takes a moment to address the crypto space and catch them up on all things Cardano. Specifically, he did so via a live broadcast.
The broadcast comes from South Africa, as Hoskinson is currently traveling through different parts of Africa. He says there’s a lot of potential opportunities here and he is looking forward to learning more during this trip.
In detail, the purpose of this brief update was to dampen the negative and uncertain buzz about the project within the crypto world. Hoskinson wanted to be upfront and transparent about all that’s been going on since the Alonzo smart contract update launch last month.
Frankly, he is very puzzled at the rising FUD within the space. He says that so far, Cardano has met every single milestone on its roadmap with no delays and no issues. The network has never collapsed and Cardano’s community continues to grow.
Hoping to reassure the naysayers, Hoskinson lays out Cardano’s current plans. To begin, he says that most of the concerns he sees seem to be about scalability. The upcoming PAB launch set to come out later this month or early next month will take care of this.
To add on, Goguen’s goal was to set the network’s programming model. Likewise, Basho’s goal is to make the program work on a large scale, and this is where Cardano is heading next. While the PAB will improve scalability, more and more users will join the network.
By the time this number rises, Cardano will be ready to launch its sidechains as well as its Layer-2 solution — Hydra. Besides these, Cardano has a lot of other projects in motion as well. To name a few, Plutus, Mamba Pool, Atala PRISM, Mithral and so much more. In fact, there are 14 teams working to bring 14 different elements within the Cardano ecosystem alone.
On the other side, Cardano is working with dozens of commercial projects that are fully funded and ready to go. Thus, Hoskinson is excited for the next year, as we will see the large-scale commercialization of Cardano.
All in all, he is happy to see that the ecosystem is alive and active, humbled that demand for the project has gotten stronger, and grateful to the community for being here. Finally, he encourages skeptics to read the Cardano whitepaper written back in 2016.
The document shows exactly what the project aimed to bring, and they will see the steady and unwavering progress that has been delivered till now. He ends the broadcast by saying that Cardano is exactly where it needs to be right now and will continue to grow as planned.
Cardano Traders Have Started Longing Again While Funding on Binance Picks Up
Demand for Cardano derivatives is on the rise, according to on-chain and market data
As the altcoin market starts growing again and funding rates are picking up, Cardano traders and investors start to open more long positions, according to data provided by Santiment. In order to track the trader’s interest in cryptocurrency, Santiment tracks funding rates on the Binance exchange.
With increased derivatives funding, traders might expect elevated volatility due to the increasing number of leveraged positions. A more leveraged market might help the price action during an uptrend.
The downside of an overleveraged market
The main downside of elevated volatility on the market is the absence of strong support zones that practically have no time to form in the face of the rapidly rising price.
Cardano markets were constantly overleveraged during the previous bull run. Right after the market entered the correction phase, ADA faced a 30% retrace and has not recovered to date.
In the last month, the average weekly volatility on ADA has been staying around 8%, while in the post-smart contract announcement phase, the average volatility has remained at about 20%.
The main advantage for traders
Since current market sentiment for ADA remains neutral, an increase in volatility might lead to both positive and negative outcomes. But according to the data from Binance, there are more longs being opened than shorts. With additional longs funded and the absence of selling pressure, the price of the asset might rise further.
Currently, only 61% of ADA holders remain in profit, which indicates that 40% of all holders have opened their positions for a higher price. On-chain data also suggests that more selling pressure might appear on the market once the price comes close to the previous ATH.