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China fear is now infrastructure bill fear — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) is at the start of another week with China’s latest “ban” behind it — but its next “FUD” story is already brewing.

The United States’ infrastructure bill is back on the table, with this week likely to see a definitive vote on what could shake up cryptocurrency businesses.

At the same time, fundamentals and on-chain metrics alike continue to be more bullish than ever, and traders are betting on — at worst — a moderate price dip to a floor no lower than $36,000.

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What are the odds? Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that could move the markets in the coming week.

D-Day for infrastructure bill

The macro narrative switches from China to the United States this week as lawmakers decide the fate of the so-called “infrastructure bill.”

H.R.3684, fresh from Senate approval, should see a final vote on Monday — despite rumors that it may yet be delayed.

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The bill includes a contentious description of a “broker,” one which could have far-reaching implications for U.S. crypto businesses. Efforts are still underway to change its language, with figures such as Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis and advocate Caitlin Long leading the way.

The current text describes a broker as “any person who (for consideration) is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.”

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In total, as of Sept. 27, the bill has received 539 amendments.

While potentially a thorn in the side of the local crypto industry, H.R.3684 arguably matters little to seasoned Bitcoin hodlers.

Nonetheless, on the back of the latest China “ban” debacle, market sentiment is sensitive to “FUD” stories from any quarter.

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“Bitcoin is bipartisan. Digital assets are apolitical,” Senator Lummis summarized on Twitter ahead of voting day.

“Green week” expected across crypto markets

It’s a familiar tale for BTC spot price action this Monday as BTC/USD returns to $44,400.

That heralds the start of a resistance level, which ultimately sparked rejection last week after the pair briefly passed $45,000.

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So far, this attempt to break out has not been much different, with $44,000 failing to hold at the time of publishing.

Nonetheless, compared to forecasts of a return to the mid-$30,000 range coming as late as Sunday, the latest progress is refreshing.

“I’m expecting a green week for Bitcoin,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized late Sunday.

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 BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The weekly close, a source of contention in recent days, didn’t disappoint, coming in at $43,144 — above the minimum cut-off points that some traders highlighted.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital had demanded a $43,600 closing price, something which failed to materialize on time but came hours later.

“BTC continues to be sandwiched by the Pi Cycle 111-day MA support and this immediate red resistance area,” he added in further comments.

“This price compression is indeed forming a clear market structure here, perhaps an early-stage Ascending Triangle.”

BTC/USD scenario. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Lightning Network tops fundamental growth

It’s all smiles for Bitcoin network fundamentals for yet another week running as estimates call for a sixth consecutive difficulty increase.

Following last week’s fifth increase in a row — a rare feat in itself — data suggests that in eight days’ time, Bitcoin will seal a further upward difficulty readjustment. That would be its first six straight increases since mid-2019’s seven.

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It’s not just difficulty — the hash rate is now at around 145 exahashes per second (EH/s) and just 23 EH/s away from all-time highs.

The stats are testament to the conviction of miners, as well as to the extent of their comeback since China’s mass exodus just four months ago.

On the consumer side, the story is no less impressive. The Lightning Network, fresh from its El Salvador adoption success story, is nearing 3,000 BTC capacity. Since the start of 2021, that capacity has nearly trebled.

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“Public Lightning Network capacity just broke 2,900 BTC. Over 400 BTC has been added in the last 10 days,” investor Kevin Rooke commented alongside an accompanying chart.

“Find me a better looking chart, I’ll wait…”

Bitcoin Lightning Network capacity vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Lightning constitutes a so-called layer-two protocol, settling BTC transactions off-chain instantly and for next to zero cost.

Last week, Twitter became the first major partner of payment gateway Strike to implement Lightning Network tipping.

Feeling the fear?

Crypto market investors en masse have cold feet — and sentiment indicator the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows just how nervous they are.

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Late last week, the Index, which takes a basket of factors to determine sentiment, dipped to its lowest levels since mid-July — before BTC/USD began its run to $53,000.

This time, however, it is $40,000, not $30,000, that is the price focus in play. 

As of Monday, the Index is slightly higher at 27/100 — still firmly within the “fear” zone.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: Alternative.me

In institutional circles, negative funding rates, meanwhile, serve to provide cautious optimism about the potential for sustained upside.

As analysts often note, just when everyone is leaning bearish provides an ideal moment to long BTC and trip up the majority of speculators.

“Never gonna give you up…”

Those words, and other excerpts from English singer Rick Astley’s 1987 song of the same name, have become a meme for Bitcoiners.

They describe the mindset — and investment habits — of hodlers who never sell their BTC, no matter the circumstances.

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Hodling through any storm is a galvanizing force among long-time market participants, but right now, the “Rick Astley” investor may even be pointing the way to new all-time highs.

Bitcoin “Rick Astley” investment phases vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Willy Woo/Twitter

As noted by analyst Willy Woo, those Rick Astleys have hodled long and hard, and historically, the good times are now set to roll.

“Bitcoin has entered the Never Gonna Give You Up phase of the Astley Cycle,” he argued alongside an amusing chart comparing Rick Astley buying habits to BTC price action.

The effects may yet come sooner than many imagine. Against a sudden $2,000 uptick on Sunday, van de Poppe called time to “party” across Bitcoin and

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altcoins.

More broadly, strong hands have taken control of an increasing segment of the BTC supply, Cointelegraph reported, with this figure reaching its highest since October 2020 this month.

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Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin, Why ETH Could Rally To New ATH

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Ethereum started a fresh increase above $4,175 against the US Dollar. ETH could gain pace if there is a clear break above $4,300 in the near term.

  • Ethereum was able to climb above the $4,175 and $4,200 resistance levels.
  • The price is now trading above $4,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a major rising channel forming with support near $4,175 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could extend its increase if it clears the $4,300 and $4,320 resistance levels.

Ethereum Price Could Rise Further

Ethereum started a fresh increase after it settled above the $4,050 level. ETH was able to clear the $4,750 resistance zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Ether price even traded above the $4,250 resistance zone. A high was formed near $4,313 and the price is now consolidating gains. It traded below the $4,300 level. An immediate support is near the $4,260 level. The stated level is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $4,091 swing low to $4,313 high.

There is also a major rising channel forming with support near $4,175 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $4,300 level.

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Ethereum Price
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near the $4,320 level, above which the price might start a fresh rally. In the stated case, the price might rise towards the $4,400 level. Any more gains could lead the price towards the $4,550 level.

Dips Supported in ETH?

If ethereum fails to continue higher above the $4,300 and $4,320 resistance levels, it could start a fresh downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $4,260 level.

The first major support is near the $4,200 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $4,091 swing low to $4,313 high. The main support is near $4,175 and the channel trend line. Any more downsides could lead the price towards the $4,050 support. The next major support for the bulls is near the $4,000 level.

Technical Indicators

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Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now well above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $4,175

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Major Resistance Level – $4,320

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Terra prepares to burn more than 9% of LUNA’s total supply

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Burning nearly 90 million LUNA tokens into the community pool can put an upward pressure on the native token’s price.

Do Kwon, co-founder and CEO of Terraform Labs, the South Korean company behind the blockchain project Terra (LUNA), recently announced on Twitter that on-chain voting for project 44’s proposal will begin on Wednesday. ).

The proposal to start burning 88,675,000 LUNA from the community pool to mint 3 – 4 billion UST will reduce the total supply of native token by more than 9%.

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TVL on Earth reached ATH

After the integration of the IBC protocol last week and the launch of Wormhole V2 support for Terra, the total blocked value (TVL) in protocols on the network has reached a new high.

Last week, TVL on Earth reached $10.22 billion, with the Anchor, Lido, Mirror and Terraswap protocols accounting for more than 90% of the amount, according to data from DeFi Llama.

Currently, at US$9.97 billion, Terra is ranked as the fourth blockchain with the largest TVL, following Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain and Solana.

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New Bitcoin ETF Offers Shorting Bitcoin Futures, Creators Warn of Multiple Risks

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Direxion has filed for a Bitcoin ETF that allows traders to short BTC futures contracts

According to an article by Bloomberg, a new Bitcoin ETF, if approved, will enable traders to short Bitcoin futures. The filing was submitted on Tuesday, Oct. 26.

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Direxion wants to launch Bitcoin futures ETF for short-sellers

Bloomberg has written that, on Oct. 26, Direxion submitted documentation to launch the Direxion Bitcoin Strategy Bear ETF. Last week, two ETFs that track the performance of Bitcoin futures were launched by ProShares and Valkyrie.

Now, the BTC futures ETF industry in the U.S. may reach a new milestone—if the launch of the ETF for bears is approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The debut of Bitcoin futures products last week prompted Bitcoin growth to almost $67,000 and a new all-time high.

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However, today, the flagship cryptocurrency retreated below the $60,000 level as a mind-blowing half-a-million worth of liquidations were conducted across major exchanges: Binance, Bitfinex, OKEx, Huobi and so on.

Slightly over $500 million worth of those crypto liquidations were long positions.

BITO ETF gains $1 billion in just two days

ProShares Bitcoin ETF last week became the second-most-traded asset on the NYSE on its first day of trading. Buy orders to the tune of 10,100 were placed on BITO (the ticker the ETF goes by), and seven times more orders were placed to sell it.

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After trading for two days, BITO reached $1 billion in net asset value. That is the equivalent of the net asset value of several Canadian Bitcoin ETFs that have been trading for a while already.

Direxion fund bears lots of risks

The new Bitcoin ETF filed for by Direxion bears numerous financial risks for short-sellers, the company warns. Trading this ETF may lead to shorters getting wiped out, Bloomberg writes, and Bitcoin’s massive price swings would be a problem here, too.

The SEC filing states that if you are not prepared to lose all your funds by investing in this ETF, you should not bet on it.

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This week, some in the crypto community also expect another Bitcoin futures ETF to kick off—the one filed for by the VanEck asset manager.

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