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UNI Token Price Analysis: Sharp Volatile Swings on the 4HR Time Frame, Key RSI Levels to Watch

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The UNIUSDT crypto pair started to make sharp up and down swings, following a monthly price close above the June bearish inside bar resistance [29.3803]. This created a massive opportunity for swing traders to track specific trend reversal and continuation chart patterns like the divergence.

Let’s dive into it.

UNI price analysis
UNI price analysis

The bearish trend was confirmed with a hidden bearish divergence formation on September 06 04:00, after an earlier price close below the September 01 00:00 support.

Efforts by the bulls to restore dominance collapsed to a third bearish divergence on September 15 20:00, which sent the UNI token into a 31.5% downward spiral.

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A massive surge in demand after a bear squeeze on September 26 at 08:00 set’s a bullish undertone for the UNI token as the bulls attempt a price close above the bearish inside bar resistance [23.28].

The bearish trend was confirmed with a hidden bearish divergence formation on September 06 04:00, after an earlier price close below the September 01 00:00 support.  Efforts by the bulls to restore dominance collapsed to a third bearish divergence on September 15 20:00, which sent the UNI token into a 31.5% downward spiral.  A massive surge in demand after a bear squeeze on September 26 at 08:00 set’s a bullish undertone for the UNI token as the bulls attempt a price close above the bearish inside bar resistance [23.28].

Switching to the Heiken Ashi charts revealed the massive sell pressure and breakdown of inside bar support that fueled the downtrend.

We should expect the uptrend to resume if the RSI closes above the level-75 for a second time. A further breach of the 17.73 low would confirm a choppy and bearish outlook for the UNIUSDT crypto pair.

UNISWAP (UNI) Intraday Levels

  • Spot rate: $23.95
  • Mid–Term Trend [H4]: Bearish bias
  • Volatility: High
  • Support: $18.21 and $22.15
  • Resistance: $26.03, $27.48, and $30.30

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Uniswap price eyes 20% upswing if UNI can clear this crucial barrier

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  • Uniswap price is on a journey to retest $25 after the recent downswing.
  • On-chain metrics hint at smooth sailing ride apart from the massive resistance at $20.84.
  • A daily close below $17.75 will invalidate the bullish thesis.

Uniswap price reverses its downtrend and is on its way to set up higher highs. The bullishness around UNI comes as investors are expecting t UNI price to see a quick run-up as the crypto market also sees a minor upswing.

Uniswap price to continue its ascent

Uniswap price has rallied roughly 11% over the past 24 hours after it sliced through the $18.73 swing low. This upswing is likely to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) that extends up to $21.13 and make a run at the $22.36 resistance level.

The buy stop liquidity resting above these highs will be the market makers’ first target. Beyond this area is another FVG, extending from $22.49 to $24.51. So, investors can expect UNI to breeze through this area with ease. Resting above the $24.78 is another set of buy stops that the market makers will target.

This run-up will constitute a 20% surge in Uniswap price. 

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UNI/USDT 4-hour chart

UNI/USDT 4-hour chart

The technicals are pointing at a bullish outlook for Uniswap price, and on-chain metrics also hint at a similar outlook. Take, for example, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model.

This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased UNI over the past month. Since this indicator is hovering around -5%, it indicates that investors are at a loss. This area is where market participants accumulate the assets, suggesting it is an excellent place to see UNI price grow.

UNI 365-day MVRV chart

UNI 365-day MVRV chart

While things are looking up for Uniswap price, there is one hindrance that bulls will face in its upward journey. IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model shows a massive cluster of underwater investors at $20.84. Here, roughly 6,680 addresses purchased nearly 183 million of UNI.

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These “Out of the Money” investors are likely to pose a threat to the upswing as they could sell their holdings to breakeven. Therefore, clearing this level will remove the sell-side pressure and trigger an upswing for Uniswap price.

UNI IOMAP chart

UNI IOMAP chart

A rejection at $20.84 that results in Uniswap price correcting to $18.73 will be questionable and indicate that sellers are running amok. In such a situation, if UNI produces a daily close below $17.76, it will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis.

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Votes are in: over 7 million Uniswap holders in favor of Polygon’s deployment proposal

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The votes are in and the Uniswap community has spoken. Interestingly, almost 100% of the votes on a proposal to deploy Uniswap on Polygon were in favor of the integration. Thus, clearly highlighting the explosive popularity that layer-2 protocols have been receiving of late.

Almost a week ago, Polygon developers had put forward a proposal on Uniswap’s governance portal. This, in order to pitch their goals of integration to the larger Uniswap community. The first phase of the governance process was initiated on 23 November. It encompassed the Temperature Check Poll, which tried to gauge an initial consensus on whether the proposal is even worth going ahead with.

Reportedly, over 7.79 million Uniswap holders voted yes to deploying Uniswap V3 to the Polygon PoS chain. Well, only 25,000 favorable votes were required for the proposal to move on to the next phase.

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Polygon stated that “this is the right moment for this deployment to happen.” Since it could drastically decrease the transaction fee and time that users spend on the network. Especially, while interacting with Ethereum. Besides, expanding the decentralized exchange’s user base and revenues through scalability solutions.

The top DEXs like Sushiswap and Aave have already been deployed on Polygon. Well, the L2 protocol is ready to even allocate huge capital for this integration. Primarily, due to Uniswap’s respectable market position.

This includes participation in the design and execution of liquidity mining campaigns. In addition to the promotion of Uniswap V3 as a “money lego.”

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Now that the temperature check poll has delivered a favorable outcome, the proposal will be moving to the next stage. It will be the “Consensus Check.” It requires 50,000 affirmative votes to be passed to the final stage of governance. Well, the purpose of the Consensus Check is to start a formal discussion by creating a new poll based on the feedback from the Temperature Check.

When one Twitter user pointed out that it could take months for the deployment to go live, Polygon co-founder Mihailo Bjelic replied,

“It can be done much quicker, assuming the governance process finishes successfully.”

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Furthermore, with the overwhelming support from the Uniswap community, a delay in this process would rather be unlikely at this point.

In fact, owing to the soaring gas fee and longer transaction time, many are migrating to Layer-2 protocols. It scales the network and drastically increases its throughput. Not to forget, Polygon has turned out to be one of the most successful of those, with around $4.74 billion total value locked at press time.

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Analyzing what exactly is the state of Uniswap’s investors

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Uniswap [UNI], despite being a top-20 cryptocurrency, has been going on without an entire cohort of investors in its bag. However, even though investors managed to turn that around, the altcoin has been relentless and investors are losing patience due to UNI’s ongoing price action.

Uniswap going down?

Uniswap is one of the biggest DEXs on Ethereum and in the market. And yet, its performance week-on-week has made investors concerned about their investments.

According to a Crypto.com report, Uniswap was the worst-performing DEX over the previous week with almost 24.36% of its market cap and 14% of its average weekly volumes observing a depreciation.

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DEXes performance | Source: Crypto.com

UNI holders, on the contrary, from September onwards, finally crossed an important milestone of holding their assets for more than 1 year, leading to 47k addresses becoming the first-ever Long term Holders on the network. Increasing Month-on-Month, their percentage crossed 17% less than 24 hours ago. 

Uniswap holders distribution | Source: Intotheblock – AMBCrypto

Alas, this one positive development is not enough to counter the effects of a dejected market, one where UNI is unable to rise at all.

While the month of October wasn’t as harmful thanks to its consolidation, all of that safety was stripped away after UNI finally fell through the $23-support level. At the time of writing, it was looking at the critical support of $18.9.

Uniswap price action | Source: TradingView – AMBCrypto

Furthermore, the rising losses have led to over 52% of the addresses losing their profits. It is actually the worst condition investors have been in since the dip in July.

Uniswap profitable addresses | Source: Intotheblock – AMBCrypto

This 2 month-long price pattern explains why investors aren’t really moving their UNI. As a result, the number of transactions has fallen to 1.2k. This further resulted in UNI not changing hands as frequently and the network’s velocity falling to a 7 month low.

On the other hand, thanks to the ongoing market movement, volatility has fallen to its all-time low. This could prove to be essential for a sustainable recovery on the charts.

Uniswap volatility | Source: Intotheblock – AMBCrypto

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