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TA: Bitcoin Bulls Keeps Pushing, Why Rally Isn’t Over Yet

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Bitcoin price extended its increase above $49,000 against the US Dollar. BTC might continue to rally and it could even surpass the $50,000 resistance in the near term.

  • Bitcoin climbed higher above the $47,500 and $48,500 resistance levels.
  • The price is now trading above $48,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $48,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could correct lower, but it might find support near $47,400 or $47,000.

Bitcoin Price Remains In Uptrend

Bitcoin price started a strong increase above the $46,500 resistance level. BTC broke the $47,500 resistance level and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

It even climbed above $49,000 before correcting lower. However, downsides were limited below the $46,500 support zone. A low was formed near $46,895 and the price started a fresh increase. It climbed higher above the $47,500 and $48,500 resistance levels.

Bitcoin is now trading above $48,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A high is formed near $49,750 and it is now consolidating gains. An immediate support on the downside is near the $49,000 level.

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It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $46,895 swing low to $49,750 high. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near $48,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $49,600 level. The first major resistance is near the $49,750 level, above which the price could visit $50,000. A close above the $50,000 level could start another increase in the near term. The next major stop for the bulls may possibly be near the $52,000 level.

Dips Limited In BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $50,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh downside correction. An immediate support on the downside is near the $49,000 level.

The first major support is now forming near the $48,400 level and the trend line. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $46,895 swing low to $49,750 high. A break below the trend line support might push the price towards the $47,550 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

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Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is well above the 50 level.

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Major Support Levels – $48,400, followed by $47,550.

Major Resistance Levels – $49,500, $50,000 and $52,000.

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First Bitcoin ETF in Immediate Danger of Hitting Cap on Contracts Held

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The first bitcoin (BTC) futures-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), ProShares’ BITO, is reportedly already in danger of breaching a limit on the number of futures contracts it is allowed to hold under current Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rules.

BITO already owns nearly 1,900 bitcoin futures contracts expiring in October, according to Bloomberg data. The number is close to CME’s current rule that a single entity cannot own more than 2,000 front-month futures contracts, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, when BITO had only been live for two full days. 

To get around the limit, the ETF has reportedly started buying futures contracts expiring in November in addition to the October contracts it holds, with 1,400 November contracts amassed so far. At the current pace, however, the fund could also soon reach CME’s cap on holdings for next-month contracts of 5,000 contracts, per the report.

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And while the CME has already said it will increase the limits to 4,000 front-month contracts starting in November, this is also likely to be reached soon by BITO, which already has more than USD 1bn under management.

A major issue faced by ProShares’ ETF is that futures contracts tend to trade at a higher premium over spot prices the further away their expiry date is – a phenomenon known as contango in the futures market.

As such, choosing to get around the maximum limits by buying longer-dated contracts will mean the ETF has to get its bitcoin exposure at prices that are increasingly higher than spot. This could result in high costs when contracts are rolled over at expiry that will eventually be paid by the ETFs investors in the form of lower returns.

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According to Bloomberg’s own ETF expert, Eric Balchunas, some of the pressure on the first ETF to be launched could be alleviated by competing ETFs coming to the market over the next few days and weeks. However, the first-mover advantage that BITO has gotten will still be difficult to challenge, he said.

“The unprecedented early volume in BITO makes it like a snowball rolling downhill, as liquidity and assets begets more liquidity and assets,” Balchunas said, adding that it will be “nearly impossible” for other ETFs to steal significant volume from BITO in the short or medium-term.

Commenting on the possibility of the ETF running into the ceiling, some speculated that the extreme popularity of the futures ETF could eventually pressure the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to allow a “physically” backed spot bitcoin to launch. 

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That scenario was suggested by Zhu Su, CEO of crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, saying that it could lead to the ETF rising to a “hilarious premium,” leading the SEC to “approve a spot ETF because of public outrage.” 

In a tweet, he also shared a comment from Max Boonen, Founder of electronic market maker B2C2, saying that it is “doubtful” that clearing houses will be comfortable with a single entity holding more than 4,000 front-month contracts.

“What happens when BITO surpasses 4k [contracts] as it surely will?”, Boonen asked.

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A similar idea was also suggested by Eric Balchunas, saying in the Bloomberg report that BITO hitting the limits on how many futures contracts it is allowed to hold could pressure the SEC to allow a spot-based bitcoin ETF.

“That certainly would do the trick in slowing down BITO and providing a release valve for futures demand,” the senior ETF analyst said.

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Meanwhile, the second bitcoin ETF to be approved by the SEC, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF with the ticker BTF, is scheduled to go live on the market today, October 22. BTF will also be backed by bitcoin futures contracts traded on the CME rather than by “physical” bitcoins.

BTF should go live on the Nasdaq exchange when the market opens at 09:30 ET (13:30 UTC).

Following the launch of Valkyrie’s fund today, a third bitcoin futures ETF, the VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF (XBTF), is set to go live on Monday on the Cboe BZX Exchange, according to a recent SEC filing.

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Second US Bitcoin Futures ETF Launching Today – Here Are the Details

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A new Bitcoin (BTC) futures exchange-traded fund (ETFs) rolls out today.

Valkyrie Investments, an alternative asset management firm, is launching the country’s second Bitcoin futures ETF, according to CEO Leah Wald.

The new product is called the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF and will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol BTF.

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The launch comes on the heels of ProShares’ Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund, which exploded onto the market on Tuesday with the second-biggest ETF launch of all time.

Like ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), the Valkyrie ETF doesn’t invest directly in BTC but provides price exposure to Bitcoin futures contracts.

Per the ETF’s prospectus,

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“Under normal circumstances, the fund will seek to purchase a number of Bitcoin futures contracts so that the total notional value… of the Bitcoin underlying the futures contracts held by the fund is as close to 100% of the net assets of the fund as possible.”

Bitcoin is trading at $62,793, up nearly 10% on the week but down from its Wednesday all-time high of $67,276, according to CoinGecko.

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Bears Gearing up to Drag Bitcoin Down, This Is How BTC Price Can Defend Itself!

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The cryptocurrency market remains vivid lately. While some flourish, others lose out-breath on their run. The market cap of the crypto space at the press time, is down by  1.7%, at $2,718,182,571,073. While the volume for the last 24-hours hovers around ~$166,723,949,932.

The star crypto at press time is trading at $63,624.08. With negative gains of 2.5% for the last 24-hours. While the market capitalization of BTC floats around $1,199,369,171,403. The trading volume for round-the-clock stood at around $44,244,433. The dominance stands at around 44.1%. The coin has been consolidating post-brushing its new ATH at $67,276.79, which was on the 20th of October.

Bitcoin to Lose Its $60,000 Levels? 

According to an analyst, BTC grew from $41,000 to $67,000, without any notable corrections. From the chart, BTC price can be seen moving across the rising channel. The star coin had earlier rebounded each time it hit the support levels of the rising channel. However, this time around the coin broke through its support levels. And now holds two probabilities for its price action.

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The analyst anticipates the coin to either retest and plummet towards its support levels. Or it might take a dip straight away towards its support level at $59,000. However, the analyst expects BTC to march towards its milestone in the range of $78,000 to $80,000. Following the price correction. But in no terms, it means a bear trap.

Collectively, a price correction seems to be imminent, prior to a major leg-up. As a lot FOMO has also crept in during the uptrend. Which might need correction, for a healthy run in the quarter. Hopefully, the star coin retraces, its path surpassing the expectations.

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