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Experts Disagree on Prospects of Bitcoin ETF in 2021 as Deadline Nears

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Receiving “no news is good news” for the approval of a bitcoin (BTC) futures-backed exchange traded fund (ETF), according to Bloomberg’s ETF analyst. However, others are more pessimistic, believing that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to delay the approval of a bitcoin ETF until 2022.

Speaking on CNBC on Monday, Todd Rosenbluth, senior director of ETF and mutual fund research at investment research firm CFRA, said that hopeful investors may still have to wait for a while before a bitcoin ETF will be approved, even if the ETF is backed by futures contracts rather than “physical” bitcoins. 

“It’s possible – in fact, we think it’s likely – that we’re going to see a delay of a bitcoin futures ETF until 2022, until the regulatory environment is more clear,” Rosenbluth said in the video interview.

The ETF researcher continued by saying that a potential approval comes down to “a timing issue,” explaining that if the decisions on the ETF proposals are moved to 2022, all of the products “can launch at the same time instead of [one] getting a first-mover advantage.”

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In the same interview, ETF issuer Van Eck Associates CEO Jan van Eck also noted that the SEC’s main concern is that discrepancies will occur between bitcoin spot and futures prices.

“In bitcoin rallies, bitcoin futures strategies can underperform by even up to 20% a year,” van Eck explained, while adding that the SEC wants “some visibility into the underlying bitcoin markets.”

Van Eck Associates is one of the companies that have filed proposals with the SEC for both physically-backed and futures-backed bitcoin ETFs. According to a Bloomberg overview of the pending ETF applications, October 18 is the potential decision date for Van Eck’s futures-backed ETF.

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Source: Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg’s own ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, however, “no news is good news” when it comes to a bitcoin ETF, although he said it is “an unusual situation.”

Writing on Twitter on Tuesday, Balchunas noted that the SEC now only has a few days left to decide if it wants to delay a bitcoin futures ETF further. “If [we] hear nothing, the first ETF filed (ProShares) will be free to launch on October 18.”

Still, the analyst warned the crypto community that it may be overestimating how much demand there is for such an ETF, saying Bloomberg expects only about USD 4bn of demand in the first 12 months for the exchange traded fund. The figure represents just 1% of bitcoin’s market capitalization and 3% of all bitcoin futures traded currently, according to Balchunas.

Moreover, the analyst also reiterated something the crypto community already knows, namely that a physically backed bitcoin ETF would be the preferred option. Judging from the experience from Canadian ETFs, this also seems to be the general consensus among investors, with far more capital flowing into ETFs backed by real bitcoins than those backed by “paper bitcoins” in the form of futures contracts. 

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On a similar note, Urik K. Lykke, founder of the digital asset hedge fund ARK36 told Cryptonews.com in a comment that expectations for institutional-type investment vehicles “have often ended up in a ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario for bitcoin.”

“Rarely does the actual product deliver on the hopes of facilitating the institutional adoption of digital assets. For example, the actual market impact of the much-anticipated CME futures launch in 2017 or Bakkt in 2019 proved to be rather disappointing,” Lykke reminded, while adding:

“A bitcoin ETF will have a net positive effect on the development of the space but it likely won’t result in an immediate, dramatic rise in institutional adoption of digital assets.”

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC moves above $62,000, set to reach $65,000 next?

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  • Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today.
  • BTC/USD has returned above $62,000.
  • Next target at $65,000. 

Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today as a slightly higher high has been set above $62,000 resistance. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to continue higher and target the $65,000 mark over the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC moves above $62,000, set to reach $65,000 next? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The cryptocurrency market traded mostly with bullish momentum over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin up by 2.25 percent. Meanwhile, Ethereum is up by 2.06 percent, while Fantom (FTM) is the top performer, with a gain of 12 percent.

Bitcoin price movement in the last 24 hours: Bitcoin returns above $62,000

BTC/USD traded in a range of $60,012.76 – $62,944.32, indicating mild volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 6.58 percent and totals $37.4 billion, while the total market cap trades around $1.17 trillion, resulting in market dominance of 47.12 percent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart: BTC looks to move to $65,000 today?

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the $62,000 mark currently tested as support, likely meaning that bulls are preparing for further upside later today.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC moves above $62,000, set to reach $65,000 next?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price action has seen a strong performance so far this month. After a week-long consolidation above $41,000, a strong rally began on the 1st of October.

Since then, BTC/USD has gained more than 50 percent to the $62,900 high. However, bulls struggled to keep control over the weekend, resulting in a retracement to the $60,000 mark.

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Once the $60,000 mark was retested as support, a slight bullish momentum returned, pushing BTC/USD past $62,000 again. Yesterday, another brief spike to $60,000 was followed by a move higher today, leading the Bitcoin price to a slightly higher local high. 

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Bitcoin price analysis is bullish as the market has returned above $62,000 this morning and set a slightly higher high. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to continue higher later today, with the next major target at $65,000.

While waiting for Fantom to move further, read our guides on LTC wallets, Gero wallets, and  DeFi wallets.

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Morgan Creek’s Mark Yusko Issues Crypto Warning, Says Bitcoin Pullback Likely

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After Bitcoin’s positive price action this month, Morgan Creek Capital Management’s CEO thinks it’s possible BTC is bracing for a short-term pullback.

Mark Yusko, who also serves as chief investment officer of the investment management firm, tells CNBC in a new interview that Bitcoin faces a “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk.ADVERTISEMENT

“We saw this in the lead-up to El Salvador making Bitcoin a legal tender. There was a big run-up and then the day after the announcement, there was a little mini-crash. So I think there’s some risk of that around October 27th when we find out which, if any – and I think it will actually be multiple – of the [BTC exchange-traded funds] are approved.”

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Yusko adds that he wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a “little consolidation” in BTC’s short-term future.

“Look, we’re up 40% this month, which is only 15 days old, and we’re up over 110% year-to-date, so a pause that refreshes, given how overbought we are right now, wouldn’t surprise me.”

Yusko also highlights the potential factors that can push the price of Bitcoin higher once the narrative involving the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF) runs out of steam.

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“The next catalysts to your question are seeing increasing adoption [and] seeing increasing numbers of use cases. Those numbers all look really good. The hash rate is something to watch that has come back dramatically since the China ban on the miners.”

The hash rate is a Bitcoin mining metric that measures the processing power of the BTC network. An increased hash rate indicates greater security and higher resistance to network attacks.

The Morgan Creek CEO also mentions the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which attempts to predict the price of crypto by measuring the amount of new supply entering the market per year compared to the amount of supply already in existence.

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“There are a lot of people that think we can hit $100,000 by the end of the year. The stock-to-flow model says we should. And then there’s the speculative nature that price usually blows right through value.”

Bitcoin is trading at $61,949.33 at time of writing, up more than 13% in the past week, according to CoinGecko.

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ProShares debuts trailblazing bitcoin ETF on NYSE

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  • ProShares gets the Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) nod to launch a Bitcoin (BTC)-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF). The trailblazing ETF will list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the $BITO ticker.
  • SEC’s approval falls short of the market that’s pushing for a BTC spot-based ETF. The US is lagging in approving these types of products as other countries make strides.

ProShares has confirmed that it is debuting  its much anticipated bitcoin-linked ETF. The trailblazing BTC futures tracking product goes live on the NYSE on Tuesday. It’ll trade under the $BITO ticker. 

Its listing follows the SEC’s approval of ProShare’s application to offer the product. Investors can now access the leading crypto without having to hold it.

Michael L. Sapir, ProShares CEO, says the approval has been a longtime coming. He holds that $BITO will expose BTC enthusiasts to the asset within a regulated environment. 

Additionally, they needn’t open new accounts with crypto providers. Instead,  they can use their existing brokerage ones to trade.

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The SEC’s nod for the EFT has been in the works for sometime. Its chair, Gary Gensler, has previously let on the regulator’s preference for BTC futures ETFs over spot-linked ones. So it isn’t a surprise that ProShares got the greenlight now. 

ProShares listing falls short of market expectations

Although positive, the move falls short of many BTC enthusiasts’ expectations. A majority of them have been clamouring for BTC spot-based ETFs. But the SEC has been reluctant to approve those citing price manipulation concerns.

This stance has forced some institutional investors to move abroad searching for more accepting markets. Ark Investments, for instance, has listed a BTC spot tracking ETF in Canada. 

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As the US is lagging in approving BTC-linked spot ETFs, other nations are embracing them. Canada and Brazil have allowed the listing of these products in both BTC and ETH. The crypto community is positive that the US will follow suit.

ProShares’ approval and listing is a big win for the budding crypto industry. Ian Balana of Token Metrics says it’s the SEC’s most important endorsement of crypto. 

Balana says the move is indicative of regulators ceding ground on their objections over the asset class. To him this action opens the floodgates of new capital entering the space.

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Other firms are lining up for approval

Upto 10 firms have unsuccessfully sought leave to offer spot-based BTC EFTs. The SEC rejected them though,arguing that they’re prone to manipulation.

Besides ProShares, several other BTC futures are coming up for review this October. These include Van Eck, Valkyrie and Invesco. Barring the regulator’s objections they’ll be able to list seventy five days after completing their paperwork.

Futures based ETFs allow you to directly invest in BTC. In the contract, you agree to trade the asset in the future at a set price. This ETF doesn’t track the asset’s price rather the asset’s cash settlements.

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To analysts, ProShares approval sets the pace for acceptance of spot based ETFs. Today, the crypto market has advanced greatly since the initial round of applications. 

Bitcoin has responded positively to the development. Following the listing it appreciated by 2% to close at $62,041.84 on Monday. The market waits to see if it’ll surpass it’s all time high of $ 64,800.

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