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Grayscale’s Bitcoin Fund Premium Reaches New Lows Prior to Potential Launch of Bitcoin ETFs

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Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund is now reaching new lows right before the potential launch of physically-backed ETFs

The premium of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Fund hit new local lows of 19.2%, reaching a six-month all-time low of 21%. The fall has accelerated after rumors appeared of the potential approval of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. The first Bitcoin ETF may be approved on Oct. 18.

A negative premium, or a discount to NAV, indicates the fund’s performance against the underlying asset. A negative premium signals that the fund is underperforming against Bitcoin. While fund trades with a significant negative, traders may move away from that investment option since the underlying asset is available to the majority of individual traders.

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YChart Premium Chart
Source: YChart

While Grayscale remains one of the most popular options for institutional investors, small retail traders usually choose other options since the threshold for entering remains at $50,000, which is not affordable for a significant portion of market participants.

The percentage of the discount/premium to NAV is the amount that the exchange fund is trading above or below the net asset value. The metric is being used to track both the fund’s performance and the true value in accordance with the fund’s assets.

The average premium in the last five years has remained at 28%, while the maximum premium reached 132%. The Grayscale Bitcoin fund has lost its correlation with Bitcoin’s value since May—when the cryptocurrency lost 40% of its value and then swiftly retraced back.

The tracking issue of both private funds and options ETFs leads to the development of significant discounts or premiums. For the same reason, physically-backed ETFs are most likely to reach more investors and institutions since it solves tracking issues as funds actually own the underlying asset.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC moves above $62,000, set to reach $65,000 next?

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  • Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today.
  • BTC/USD has returned above $62,000.
  • Next target at $65,000. 

Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today as a slightly higher high has been set above $62,000 resistance. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to continue higher and target the $65,000 mark over the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC moves above $62,000, set to reach $65,000 next? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The cryptocurrency market traded mostly with bullish momentum over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin up by 2.25 percent. Meanwhile, Ethereum is up by 2.06 percent, while Fantom (FTM) is the top performer, with a gain of 12 percent.

Bitcoin price movement in the last 24 hours: Bitcoin returns above $62,000

BTC/USD traded in a range of $60,012.76 – $62,944.32, indicating mild volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 6.58 percent and totals $37.4 billion, while the total market cap trades around $1.17 trillion, resulting in market dominance of 47.12 percent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart: BTC looks to move to $65,000 today?

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the $62,000 mark currently tested as support, likely meaning that bulls are preparing for further upside later today.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC moves above $62,000, set to reach $65,000 next?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price action has seen a strong performance so far this month. After a week-long consolidation above $41,000, a strong rally began on the 1st of October.

Since then, BTC/USD has gained more than 50 percent to the $62,900 high. However, bulls struggled to keep control over the weekend, resulting in a retracement to the $60,000 mark.

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Once the $60,000 mark was retested as support, a slight bullish momentum returned, pushing BTC/USD past $62,000 again. Yesterday, another brief spike to $60,000 was followed by a move higher today, leading the Bitcoin price to a slightly higher local high. 

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Bitcoin price analysis is bullish as the market has returned above $62,000 this morning and set a slightly higher high. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to continue higher later today, with the next major target at $65,000.

While waiting for Fantom to move further, read our guides on LTC wallets, Gero wallets, and  DeFi wallets.

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Morgan Creek’s Mark Yusko Issues Crypto Warning, Says Bitcoin Pullback Likely

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After Bitcoin’s positive price action this month, Morgan Creek Capital Management’s CEO thinks it’s possible BTC is bracing for a short-term pullback.

Mark Yusko, who also serves as chief investment officer of the investment management firm, tells CNBC in a new interview that Bitcoin faces a “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk.ADVERTISEMENT

“We saw this in the lead-up to El Salvador making Bitcoin a legal tender. There was a big run-up and then the day after the announcement, there was a little mini-crash. So I think there’s some risk of that around October 27th when we find out which, if any – and I think it will actually be multiple – of the [BTC exchange-traded funds] are approved.”

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Yusko adds that he wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a “little consolidation” in BTC’s short-term future.

“Look, we’re up 40% this month, which is only 15 days old, and we’re up over 110% year-to-date, so a pause that refreshes, given how overbought we are right now, wouldn’t surprise me.”

Yusko also highlights the potential factors that can push the price of Bitcoin higher once the narrative involving the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF) runs out of steam.

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“The next catalysts to your question are seeing increasing adoption [and] seeing increasing numbers of use cases. Those numbers all look really good. The hash rate is something to watch that has come back dramatically since the China ban on the miners.”

The hash rate is a Bitcoin mining metric that measures the processing power of the BTC network. An increased hash rate indicates greater security and higher resistance to network attacks.

The Morgan Creek CEO also mentions the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which attempts to predict the price of crypto by measuring the amount of new supply entering the market per year compared to the amount of supply already in existence.

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“There are a lot of people that think we can hit $100,000 by the end of the year. The stock-to-flow model says we should. And then there’s the speculative nature that price usually blows right through value.”

Bitcoin is trading at $61,949.33 at time of writing, up more than 13% in the past week, according to CoinGecko.

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ProShares debuts trailblazing bitcoin ETF on NYSE

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  • ProShares gets the Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) nod to launch a Bitcoin (BTC)-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF). The trailblazing ETF will list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the $BITO ticker.
  • SEC’s approval falls short of the market that’s pushing for a BTC spot-based ETF. The US is lagging in approving these types of products as other countries make strides.

ProShares has confirmed that it is debuting  its much anticipated bitcoin-linked ETF. The trailblazing BTC futures tracking product goes live on the NYSE on Tuesday. It’ll trade under the $BITO ticker. 

Its listing follows the SEC’s approval of ProShare’s application to offer the product. Investors can now access the leading crypto without having to hold it.

Michael L. Sapir, ProShares CEO, says the approval has been a longtime coming. He holds that $BITO will expose BTC enthusiasts to the asset within a regulated environment. 

Additionally, they needn’t open new accounts with crypto providers. Instead,  they can use their existing brokerage ones to trade.

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The SEC’s nod for the EFT has been in the works for sometime. Its chair, Gary Gensler, has previously let on the regulator’s preference for BTC futures ETFs over spot-linked ones. So it isn’t a surprise that ProShares got the greenlight now. 

ProShares listing falls short of market expectations

Although positive, the move falls short of many BTC enthusiasts’ expectations. A majority of them have been clamouring for BTC spot-based ETFs. But the SEC has been reluctant to approve those citing price manipulation concerns.

This stance has forced some institutional investors to move abroad searching for more accepting markets. Ark Investments, for instance, has listed a BTC spot tracking ETF in Canada. 

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As the US is lagging in approving BTC-linked spot ETFs, other nations are embracing them. Canada and Brazil have allowed the listing of these products in both BTC and ETH. The crypto community is positive that the US will follow suit.

ProShares’ approval and listing is a big win for the budding crypto industry. Ian Balana of Token Metrics says it’s the SEC’s most important endorsement of crypto. 

Balana says the move is indicative of regulators ceding ground on their objections over the asset class. To him this action opens the floodgates of new capital entering the space.

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Other firms are lining up for approval

Upto 10 firms have unsuccessfully sought leave to offer spot-based BTC EFTs. The SEC rejected them though,arguing that they’re prone to manipulation.

Besides ProShares, several other BTC futures are coming up for review this October. These include Van Eck, Valkyrie and Invesco. Barring the regulator’s objections they’ll be able to list seventy five days after completing their paperwork.

Futures based ETFs allow you to directly invest in BTC. In the contract, you agree to trade the asset in the future at a set price. This ETF doesn’t track the asset’s price rather the asset’s cash settlements.

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To analysts, ProShares approval sets the pace for acceptance of spot based ETFs. Today, the crypto market has advanced greatly since the initial round of applications. 

Bitcoin has responded positively to the development. Following the listing it appreciated by 2% to close at $62,041.84 on Monday. The market waits to see if it’ll surpass it’s all time high of $ 64,800.

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