- Solana price has been on a massive run-up in 2021 from $1 to $216 in roughly eight months.
- This stellar climb is likely to continue into 2022 as significant bullish signs emerge.
- Moreover, the start of a new bull run will serve as a tailwind for SOL, propelling it by roughly 713%.
Solana price performance has been extraordinary in 2021, and this trend is likely to continue into 2022. There are three reasons for this optimism, all of which forecast a bullish outlook for SOL.
Solana price and Q4 crypto markets
Solana price is bullish and has been this way since its inception. The partners backing/investing in it include FTX’s Alameda Research, CMS Holdings and other big names. Moreover, SOL finds its place in many famous investors’ portfolios like Multicoin Capital, Sino Capital, etc. That these large yet important investors are backing the project with an “Ethereum-killer” narrative is one of the reasons for Solana’s exponential returns over the past eight months.
Unlike other Ethereum killers, which have never been able to stand up to Ethereum, let alone steal its market share, SOL has played a crucial role in DeFi and its events and continues to slowly siphon users away from the ETH ecosystem.
While Solana’s backing makes it extremely attractive as an investment, that is only half the reason. The other half includes the upcoming bull run – or bull run 2.0 if you will – which is more than likely to trigger altcoins to rally exponentially. But what makes this second phase intriguing and the most sought-after cycle is that it is happening in the last quarter of the year. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin bull run tend to overextend in Q4. Altcoins, however, take this to a new level, increasing their market value multiple times.
We expect, therefore, that it will be in the second half of the run-up that that the big buying will take place, with pressure from retail and institutions a significant tailwind to Solana price, as it reaches unfathomable levels.
Technicals to push SOL the rest of the way
From a technical perspective, the daily and weekly charts both show an interesting yet bullish outlook for Solana price. The daily time frame shows SOL rose 713% between July 21 to September 8, forming a flag pole – the first element in a bullish flag or pennant pattern. This exponential growth was followed by consolidation that created three lower highs and higher lows, resulting in a pennant forming when connected using trend lines.
Taken together, the run-up from July 21 to October 20 and the consolidation that followed is a continuation pattern known as the bullish pennant. This technical formation forecasts a 713% upswing to $1,336, obtained by adding the flag pole’s distance to the breakout point at $164. A more conservative estimate would be to extend the poll by a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio resulting in a surge of 440% to a price target of $721.60.
Solana price shattered the pennant’s upper trend line on October 20 and has rallied 21% to where it currently is. Going forward, investors can expect SOL to continue its 713% uptrend to reach its theoretical target of $1,336 or the more conservative $721.60 price objective.
SOL/USDT 1-day chart
Interestingly, the weekly chart for Solana price shows that it is currently hovering above the $174 resistance level. This barrier has prevented SOL from climbing higher over the past five weeks, although the recent 21% run-up seems to have done the trick.
Investors should wait for a decisive close above $174 to confirm that this upswing was backed by genuine buyers, however. Assuming SOL flips the $174 hurdle, a retest of this barrier (although unlikely) will serve as a secondary confirmation and convert it into a support floor. This development is more than likely to kick-start a new bull run on a higher time frame.
What makes this climb more assuring is the red ‘one’ sell signal from the Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) on the weekly time frame. This indicates investors need not worry about an unforeseen sell-off or spike in selling pressure.
SOL/USDT 1-week chart
While things are looking up for Solana price, a breakdown of the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle at around $143 will invalidate the bullish pennant. However, this does not invalidate the bullishness surrounding SOL. In some cases, this downswing could extend, pushing SOL to $130.
$2.6 Billion Bug in Solana Program Library Disclosed: Details
Researchers from Neodyme, a boutique team focused on security audits, noticed a critical vulnerability in Solana’s codebase
In their latest blog post, crypto security researchers from Neodyme shared the design of an attack that may be profitable for “expensive” tokens integrated into Solana (SOL) ecosystem.
“One Lambo per hour”
As per the announcement shared in Neodyme’s social network and blog, its members noticed a bug in the token-lending contract of the Solana Program Library. As such, it affected numerous Solana-based DeFi protocols.
We recently discovered a critical bug in the token-lending contract of the solana-program-library (SPL). This blog post details our journey from discovery, through exploitation and coordinated disclosure, and finally the fix.— Neodyme (@Neodyme) December 3, 2021
Aggregated total value locked (TVL) at risk was over $2,600,000,000. The design of the hypothetical attack was quite simple: while depositing n fractional tokens, a user is able to withdraw n+1 fractional tokens.
With Solana’s native token, SOL, it will not be effective economically, as 1 Lamport (the smallest fraction of SOL, like Satoshi for Bitcoin, Wei for Ether and Drop for XRP) is only worth about $0.000000220.
However, for Ether and Bitcoin, this scenario can be very profitable. With some technical upgrades, the attack can be executed about 300 times per second. In this case, losses can be dramatic:
We can get this transaction included about 300 times per second, stealing $7500 per second or about $27 million an hour (that is one Lamborghini Huracan every minute).
In automated mode, this attack becomes profitable even for FTT and RAY tokens.
On Dec. 2-4, Neodyme’s representatives contacted a number of decentralized finance protocols (DeFis) on Solana, e.g., Larix, Solend, Tulip, Accumen, Soda and so on.
All teams fixed the bugs in their architecture. Yesterday, software engineer Jordan Audet-Sexton shared in GitHub that the issue is fixed in Solana’s main codebase as well.
Here’s What’s Next for Ethereum Rivals Solana and Avalanche, According to Analyst Nicholas Merten
Prominent crypto analyst Nicholas Merten is taking a look at two layer-1 digital assets stacked up against the Ethereum (ETH) trading pair.
In a new strategy session, the host of DataDash tells his 486,000 YouTube subscribers where he thinks smart contract platforms Avalanche (AVAX) and Solana (SOL) are headed.
According to Merten, it is better to compare both coins to ETH rather than the US dollar or Bitcoin (BTC) as Ethereum’s greater success in recent years makes it a better barometer than Bitcoin.
“If you’re really looking to see if your play is outpacing others in the market, you want to take a look against Ethereum. It is the second-largest cryptocurrency in this space and it has been outpacing Bitcoin around 380% to 400% in this cycle alone since 2019.
So we want to be able to find plays that are outpacing Ethereum because Ethereum is a really solid bet. It’s a really good medium-risk, medium-reward play.”
Looking at Avalanche, Merten says that a local top might be in for the AVAX against ETH after the altcoin’s massive rally in the last few months.
“Avalanche has done phenomenally well against Ethereum. If you take a look back here since August, it’s up 422% against Ethereum. Great rally, even after the [recent] pullback here…
When I look at this chart I definitely like seeing an asset that performs well against Ethereum, but each time it’s come up to this range [0.034 ETH or $139.21] historically, it’s been dragged down…
I think that again we might see some kind of repetition, or at least a revisit down to the previous support range [0.014 ETH or $57.32], which means that’s it probably going to go down a little over 35% to 40% against Ethereum. A pretty decent decline.
At time of writing, AVAX is down 1% on the day to $107.20.
As for Solana’s price action against Ethereum, Merten notes that the pair is flashing a bearish pattern after printing massive rallies in the last 18 months.
“But to be completely frank as a trader, Solana’s had many rallies in the past. It’s had one back here [from July to August of 2020], 336% rally in price. Then back here [December of 2020], if you want to take from the lows, in this case, 1,000% move, massive multiples in price.
We take a look here as well, from the recent rally here [August 2021] into September, very similar to history, a little over 350% to 400%. Not a bad rally.
But to be completely frank, we’ve been stagnant since September generally. The trend is starting to fade here. We don’t have that same momentum, and it’s seeing if it can hold out against Ethereum.
If you break below this range here [0.046 ETH or $188], I think it’s very favorable that Ethereum is going to start to outpace Solana as well as other major layer-1 plays.”
Solana is currently down nearly 10% and trading at $203.79.
Solana Price Analysis: SOL spikes to $170, swift retracement to follow?
- Solana price analysis is bullish today.
- Rejection was seen at $170.
- SOL/USD set to retrace previous loss next.
Solana price analysis is bullish today as further downside was rejected at $170 after a strong decline over the last 24 hours. Therefore, we can assume SOL/USD has set a new low, and recovery will be seen over the next 24 hours.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market has seen a strong decline over the last 24 hours. The market leaders, Bitcoin and Ethereum, have seen a strong decline of 16.94 and 14.65 percent, while Solana (SOL) has lost around 19 percent.
Solana price movement in the last 24 hours: Solana drops further, finds support at $170
SOL/USD traded in a range of $181.46 – $239.12, indicating extreme volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 75 percent, totaling $6.48 billion, while the total market cap trades around $58.9 billion, ranking the coin in 5th place overall.
SOL/USD 4-hour chart: SOL looks to recover?
On the 4-hour chart, we can see bullish momentum returning for the Solana price action today as bears are finally exhausted.
Solana price saw strong bullish momentum push the price higher for most of the week after support was found around $185 last weekend. However, yesterday, SOL/USD peaked at $244, leading to a drop lower during the second half of the day.
Overnight, bearish momentum continued pushing lower, with the $185 previous low broken. Further downside followed in the morning as bears briefly touched the $170 mark.
However, from there, a quick reaction higher was seen this morning and is currently still in play. Likely we will see the Solana price action continue higher later in the day, as bulls are eager to regain some of the loss seen earlier.
Solana Price Analysis: Conclusion
Solana price analysis is bullish today as we saw quick rejection from the $170 mark this morning. Therefore, a new swing low has been set, likely leading to recovery over the next 24 hours.
While waiting for Solana to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.