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Bitcoin price action in 2021 so far mirrors 2017 — Will it continue?

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent rally has finally broken through to reach widely anticipated new all-time highs. With September being left behind and “Uptober” delivering on high hopes, many analysts are increasingly confident that the year will play out in the same way as 2017. 

In fact, a recent tweet from crypto analyst TechDev shows just how closely the price chart for 2021 is tracking 2017, and it’s startlingly close.

But can a continuing upward trajectory really be that simple?

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Following the indicators

Several pieces of data point to similarities in the patterns between the two cycles. Firstly, the relative strength index, which traders use to identify overbought and oversold markets, is tracing the same path as 2017. In 2013 and 2017, each cycle displayed two peaks, so if events follow course, then we’re still due a second rally.

TechDev’s ambitious prediction is that a $200,000 BTC price is “programmed in.” Korean trader Mignolet is also bullish, stating in early October that the decrease of volume moving from spot to derivatives markets is a positive market signal. Meanwhile, even back in September, some were sure about BTC reaching the $100,000 mark even before the recent all-time highs.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode recently published a review of long-term hodling patterns, which provides further credence to the argument for another rally to come. The results demonstrate that coins held longer than a statistically significant period of 155 days only begin to enter the markets once prices break the previous all-time high. On-chain patterns also currently show a trend toward accumulation.

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Put simply, long-term holders are ensuring that demand for BTC outstrips supply.

However, not everyone agrees that history is repeating itself. When we asked whether he thinks 2021 is a mirror of 2017, Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, told Cointelegraph “Not at all,” adding further:

“2017 began with Bitcoin crossing $1,000 per coin and gradually snowballed throughout the course of the year, continuously breaking new highs, a crescendo that peaked in December. This year, we saw the mass mania at the beginning of the year and then a lukewarm extension of that momentum.”

Backing up this view, other indicators are showing a more tentative correlation. In 2017, BTC’s dominance dropped sharply during the first half of the year before picking up as it moved toward the $20,000 resistance. Early 2021 showed a similar pattern, and dominance has been increasing since September. However, the direction of travel isn’t yet incontrovertibly upward.

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The same can be said of active addresses, which by this point in 2017 had been on a near-vertical upward trajectory. However, while the upward trend here is more pronounced than BTC’s dominance, it’s nevertheless on a gentler incline.

Could it simply be that 2021 is less of a feeding frenzy for incoming individual investors than in 2017?

It seems likely. For instance, net transfer to and from exchanges has some similarities to the patterns of the last bull run. But overall, the markets are behaving in a more measured fashion.

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Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of Internet-of-Things network Nodle, points out that there are macro-level differences between 2017 and now that could account for these variations in pattern. Speaking to Cointelegraph, he said that the situation is totally different:

“The COVID crisis has hit many of our economies, and the level of money printed by central banks to provide support to our economies has reached new highs. Inflation rates are growing, and therefore, Bitcoin is a safe position to hedge against what’s happening.”

So, what can be expected from BTC?

Regardless of whether the present is mirroring the past by all measures, analysts have been almost universally bullish on Bitcoin’s price even before this week’s stellar price action.

TechDev’s $200,000 prediction is at the higher end of most forecasts, while analyst Filbfilb put prices at $72,000 by November.

And then there’s the consistently reliable PlanB. The creator of the stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin has nailed the last two monthly closing prices to within a fraction of a percent and has predicted an October close of $63,000 and $98,000 for November. He also tips BTC to have reached $135,000 by December — not, as he points out, based on his popular stock-to-flow model. If that were 100% accurate, BTC would have already hit the $100,000 mark, according to him.

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Instead, it seems that the crowd can expect the analyst to reveal details of a new price and/or on-chain data model that’s driving these scarily accurate monthly price predictions.

How long can it last?

The 2017 run peaked in December when bullish sentiments ran out at almost $20,000. Although a lesser breakout in early January brought fresh hopes, it was downhill from there.

It’s also worth noting that the last big BTC bull run before that was in 2013 when the price peak came a few weeks earlier at the end of November and the start of December. Again, the high was followed by another rally in early January.

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If history does repeat itself, then December could mark the point at which the market will enter a new phase of this halving cycle. PlanB believes it will run for longer, though, based on his undisclosed on-chain model.

Of course, metrics and models cannot take account of unfolding news or other market events that may influence prices. So far this year, Bitcoin has weathered multiple regulatory blows from the Chinese government and Elon Musk’s antics, along with the boost of becoming legal tender in El Salvador and gaining broader recognition from the financial sector and institutions. A stagnating economy and investor interest in crypto’s market-beating yields have also helped maintain a solid support level.

While the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) news propels the markets into epic bull territory for now, there are no cast-iron guarantees that positive sentiments will keep driving the markets. There’s the ongoing saga of potential United States regulatory intervention and an increasingly heated energy crisis that seems likely to impact mining profitability — these, or other macroeconomic factors, could blow the markets off course.

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Steven Gregory, CEO of Currency.com, believes the current ETF hype invokes similar, if not identical, feelings to 2017, telling Cointelegraph that when the first Bitcoin futures contract was added to CBOE, there was widespread excitement: “Initially, there was a strong upward price movement, but looking back, it looked like the tail end of the bull run for BTC.” But he cautions against wrapping up for the chill of a new crypto winter, elaborating:

“There may be some parallels here between the 2017 bull run and this 2021 cycle; however, adoption is far greater, open interest is higher, and the utility of crypto is unrecognizably farther along than in 2017.”

Even though it does not guarantee the result, it seems that bullish sentiments are overwhelmingly strong at this point. Whichever way it goes, 2021 is set to go down in the crypto history books as one of the most action-packed in the industry’s colorful history.

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Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin Price Flash Crashed to $28.8K on Huobi: Over $2.5B Total Liquidations in 24 Hours

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While bitcoin dumped to $42,000 on most exchanges, Huobi saw a more substantial drop as BTC went below $30,000.

A flash crash transpired on Huobi as BTC went all the way down to $28,800 before recovering just as sharply. At the same time, the liquidations are well above $2.5 trillion on a daily scale as the entire market is deep in the red.

  • As reported earlier, bitcoin, and the entire cryptocurrency market, went through one of its worst crashes in recent history. BTC plummeted by $16,000 in a day from around $58,000 to an intraday low of $42,000 on Bitstamp and most exchanges.
  • However, other trading venues saw even more dramatic price drops. Such was the case with the BTC/USDC trading pair on Huobi, where bitcoin dropped all the way down to $28,801, as the picture below shows.
BTC/USDC on Huobi. Source: TradingView
BTC/USDC on Huobi. Source: TradingView
  • Such events are known as flash crashes, in which the price of the underlying asset drops significantly lower on one (or more) exchanges compared to most and recovers immediately.
  • As it happened in previous times that CryptoPotato reported, the price of BTC recovered just as quickly as it fell.
  • Separately, the aforementioned market dump, which caused massive double-digit price nosedives for almost all coins, resulted in severe pain for leveraged traders.
  • According to data from CoinGlass (formerly known as Bybt), the total liquidations are above $2.5 billion on a daily scale. In the past 4 hours alone, the liquidations are over $1.5 billion.
  • The number of traders liquidated is just shy of 400,000, and the largest single liquidation order was worth $28 million and transpired on Bitfinex.
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Bitcoin price analysis: Bitcoin hits lowest since mid-Oct, breaks below $50k; falling to $47k range

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  • Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today.
  • BTC has fallen below the psychological mark of $50k.
  • Bitcoin continues to look for support.

The Bitcoin price analysis report reveals a dramatic bearish situation as the Bitcoin fell below the $50,000 range today, and a sudden drift towards the $47,000 range has been observed as well. This looks like the strongest correction after May 2021, when Bitcoin closed below the EMA100, as the bearish pressure is immense and something the same is happeninging again. Speculations for BTC to go as low as $48,000, even down to 45,000 were already in the market, and the bearish indications for the past few days were already confirming them. But speculations are speculations, and rumors are rumors. What happened today was expected, but it came as a surprise to many in such a sudden plunge.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart: BTC looks for support

The 1-day price chart for Bitcoin price analysis shows a steep decrease in the coin’s value as it came down from $53,725 all the way down to $47380 today in just a few hours, losing more than $6000 in price value. A swing low towards $42,000 was also observed. The BTC/USD yet have to clench on to a support, as all previous support zones have fallen one by one. BTC has lost 16 percent value over the last 24 hours and around 12 percent over the past week. On the other hand, the trading volume has increased by 69 percent over the last day but the market cap suffered by 16.42 percent.

Bitcoin price analysis: Bitcoin hits lowest since mid-Oct, breaks below $50k; falling to $47k range 1

The volatility indicator shows comparatively high volatility, but BTC price has stepped far below the lower limit of the Bollinger bands. The lower limit at $50,834 represented support for BTC, which just fell and turned into a resistance zone now. The moving average (MA) is present at the $55071 mark.

The relative strength index (RSI) was already on a downwards slope giving bearish indications, but today it dived straight down and has just dipped into the oversold region, which is a strong bearish territory. As the RSI just touched index 29, the BTC has turned undervalued, so a little reversal in price function can be expected in the coming hours.

Bitcoin price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indications

The 4-hour price chart for Bitcoin price analysis shows the coin fell to $51,9668 during the first four hours today and then suddenly took a deep plunge towards $47,256. Bitcoin hasn’t found support yet as it continues to decline.

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Bitcoin price analysis: Bitcoin hits lowest since mid-Oct, breaks below $50k; falling to $47k range 2
BTC/USD 4-hours price chart. Source: Tradingview

The volatility indicator started to diverge yesterday and took on to more steeper divergence today as the bearish pressure exceeded the expectation, and the price started falling tremendously, BTC price is trading below the lower limit of the Bollinger bands, and the moving average has also traveled low and is present at the $54,407 level. The RSI shows a critical situation as it has stooped low in the oversold region and is present at index 17, indicating high undervaluation at the moment.

Bitcoin price analysis: Conclusion

Bitcoin was first speculated to bounce of around $50,000 range, but that did not happen, then the second was 44,000 speculation for a bounce upwards, which seems correct at the moment, but as the coin hasn’t got the support yet, nothing can be said with confirmation, we can only assume for Bitcoin to float above $45,000 today.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC rejects upside at $59,000, more downside to follow?

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  • Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today.
  • BTC/USD spiked to $59,000.
  • Closest support at $56,000.

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as we saw upside rejected after a quick rally today. Therefore, BTC/USD is not yet ready to set higher highs, and we will likely see more downside tested over the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC rejects upside at $59,000, more downside to follow? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The cryptocurrency market has seen mixed results over the last 24 hours. The market leader, Bitcoin, declined by 2.29 percent, while Ethereum gained 3.55 percent. Terra (LUNA) was the top performer, with a gain of 12 percent.

Bitcoin price movement in the last 24 hours: Bitcoin retests $59,000 previous high, quickly rejects lower

BTC/USD traded in a range of $56,375.16 – $58,879.67, indicating strong volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 19.75 percent, totaling $39.4 billion, while the total market cap trades around $1.08 trillion, resulting in market dominance of 41.17 percent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart: BTC looks to test downside again

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price action returning towards previous support over the last hours, likely leading to another retest of the $56,000 support.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC rejects upside at $59,000, more downside to follow?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price has traded in a clear bearish momentum for most of November. After a quick spike higher on the 8th of November, a new all-time high was set at $69,000. From there, BTC/USD saw a strong reversal over the next week.

Almost 20 percent were lost until strong support was finally found at $56,000 on the 19th of November. After a brief retracement, the support got retested again on the 23rd of November. 

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Meanwhile, further lower highs were set, indicating a bearish market structure still in play. This gave the momentum for bears to finally break another lower low to $53,500 last Friday. 

After some consolidation over the weekend, the Bitcoin price saw a quick reaction higher overnight to Monday. Initially, the $58,280 mark was reached, with further higher highs reached with quick spikes higher over the last 24 hours.

Ultimately, the $59,000 previous high was not broken, meaning that another wave lower should follow over the next days.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as we saw the $59,000 resistance reject the market lower over the past hours. Therefore, BTC/USD is still not ready to break previous highs, likely leading to more downside later this week.

While waiting for Bitcoin to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.

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