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Bitcoin Futures Heating Up, Why BTC Traders Should Expect Volatility

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Bitcoin has been moving sideways during the day as it was rejected north of $63,000. As of press time, BTC’s price trades at $62,698 with a 1% profit in the weekly chart.

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BTC moving sideways in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

However, Bitcoin could see some action in the short term. The benchmark crypto has been rallying on the back of an increase in institutional demand and the launch of the first BTC-linked ETFs in the U.S.

As a consequence, Bitcoin went from the lows at $40,000 to a new all-time high in less than a week. This caused a FOMO effect most notoriously visible in the derivatives sector.

As CryptoQuant showed, the amount of leverage positions in this sector has been on the rise since the end of September. Moving to a year high with BTC’s price, the leverage ratio points to an excess which could be reflected on the price action.

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Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: CryptoQuant via Twitter

The CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju believes this excess in leverage is caused by new players, as it is has happened historically when Bitcoin enters price discovery. Usually, the market reacts with a sudden move to the opposite direction of the majority of the overleverage position.

Whales and other major players try to shake out these new traders and take advantage of the liquidity in the market to make their own moves. In response to the possibility of the current high leverage in Bitcoin futures been driven by Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures Open Interest, Young Ju clarified:

This data doesn’t take into account CME futures. I think CME users are new players joining this industry, which indicates the market is over-leveraged by *existing* investors who are using crypto exchanges. Folks who use CME might not have over-leveraged positions.

New BTC ETFs, Same Bitcoin Price Action

The recently launched Bitcoin ETF are backed by CME futures. Therefore, some expects believe the platform could gain more relevance in the future and have a bigger impact in BTC’s price.

In case of volatility, Bitcoin could find critical support at $60,000, as $840 million in futures contracts were purchased when BTC’s price was hitting this mark, Young Ju said.

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Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: CryptoQuant via Twitter

As noted by research firm Glassnode, the OI for the CME futures has increased by over 265% in just a month. This points towards a moment of euphoria which has favored the bears over the past months

However, the general sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive as Glassnode reported. This demonstrated by the amount of long-term investors that have stopped taking profits during BTC’s most recent price rally.

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Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: ETH outperforming its peers, BTC struggles and XRP bearish

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  • Bitcoin refrains from making new highs as Tuesday’s gap-fill kills uptrend continuation. 
  • Ethereum outpaces its peers by barely hitting new all-time highs.  
  • XRP price again looking for direction as investors interest wanes.

The Bitcoin bull rally got stopped in its tracks this week after BTC price came under more pressure from the Omicron story, and the resulting market turmoil.  Ethereum price, however, came just $16 away from making a new record high, making gains in contrast to the other two majors. XRP saw investors buying the dip, but the uptrend hit a wall and got stopped in its tracks.

Bitcoin price on the backfoot after a slowdown that made it lose bullish momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) price popped higher at the beginning of the week, shrugging off investors’ concerns about the new Covid variant.On Monday, BTC price opened up much higher than where it closed on Sunday, forming a gap in the chart. As a general rule, gaps get filled sooner rather than later, and this was the case on Monday, when bulls saw their early gains lost as BTC price retraced to fill the gap. 

Bears have seized the opportunity to defend the new monthly pivot for December at $59,586, which coincides with the start of a Fibonacci retracement.. Evidence of this weakening can be found in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), dipping back below 50, showing that bullish demand is starting to wane.

BTC/USD daily chart

BTC/USD daily chart

As a result of current market uncertainty, expect potential investors to stay on the sidelines. Although the red descending trend line has been broken a little, it still holds importance and investors will probably only step in following a break back above it,  helped, perhaps, by breaking news about vaccine effectiveness  against the new strain. Either that or investors will sit on their hands and wait for another bounce off $53.350. Should that level fail to hold, however, and there is more bad news,, expect a quick 6% drop towards the $50,000 psychological level and previous historical support. At that level bulls will likely mount a defence against a further downturn.

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Ethereum price outpaces its peers and could make new highs by the end of this week

Ethereum (ETH) price, unlike Bitcoin and XRP, saw bulls run a tight and steep rally from $4,000 towards $4,936 in just five days. That was in a troubled market facing considerable headwinds. That said, bulls now need to keep a tight stop on current ETH price action in order for a bull trap not to form, after the pull-back on profit-taking that occurred in the wake of price barely hitting an all-time high. 

ETH quickly reversed from its highs on Wednesday and tested the December pivot at $4,481. That is just $16 above the historical technical level marked up on the chart from November 12. This is a level of great importance and it will be very interesting to see if bulls can maintain price action above it, perhaps, helped by a possible bounce off the red top line that has so far been  successfully capping price action to the upside.

ETH/USD daily chart

ETH/USD daily chart

That red descending trend line, on the other hand, should support a break below $4,465, but if bulls flee the scene, expect a bull trap to form and price to run down lower. The first support tested in that decline is the historical double top at $4,060, with the monthly S1 support level at $4,000 just below there. The correction could already hold 18% of accrued losses from the highs of Wednesday, which would attract investors interested in the buying opportunity at those levels.

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XRP price sees bulls rejected at $1.05, pushing price back towards $0.88

Ripple (XRP) price saw sparks fly in a nice uptrend on Wednesday, but then hit a bump in the road after the $1.05 level held firmly, following two failed tests to the upside. The rejection that squeezed prices to the downside on Tuesday, probably washed out quite a lot of investors and technical traders, and caused the lack of momentum and drive in XRP price action to tackle that $1.05 resistance. As the price fades further to the downside today, expect current market uncertainty to weigh further on XRP and see a possible retest of the short-term double bottom at $0.88.

XRP/USD daily chart

XRP/USD daily chart

On a retest of that double bottom, a break looks more than likely, as the level holds no historical or other significance. That would hand bears the opportunity to push XRP price down towards either $0.84, for the third test of support at that level, or breakthrough and run down to $0.80, which is a prominent figure and the level of the monthly S1 pivot support level, combined with a historical significant support level at $0.78, originating from June 8. This  would provide the perfect zone for a fade-in trade for XRP traders.

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Bitcoin Miner Riot Blockchain Purchased ESS Metron for $50 Million

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Riot Blockchain paid $25 million in cash, while the other $25 million consisted of up to 715,413 Riot shares to acquire ESS Metron.

One of the leading cryptocurrency mining companies in the US – Riot Blockchain – acquired the electrical equipment provider – Ferrie Franzmann Industries (known as ESS Metron) for $50 million. As a result, the latter will provide a steady infrastructure supply for Riot’s new mining machines.

Riot’s Expansion

The news was announced in a recent press release by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The total amount of the transaction equals $50 million as the bitcoin mining firm paid $25 million in cash, funded with capital from its balance sheet. The other half consisted of up to 715,413 shares of Riot common stock.

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The mining company expects to benefit from the deal by utilizing ESS Metron’s “highly engineered electrical equipment solutions” as Riot plans to expand to 700 MW. Previously, ESS Metron helped Riot develop customized immersion-cooling technology for its 200 MW expansion project.

Jason Les – Chief Executive Officer at Riot Blockchain – described the acquisition as “another milestone in establishing” his firm as a leader in its field.

“Riot’s strategic position across the electrical supply chain is significantly enhanced as the company will benefit from ESS Metron’s existing relationships with leading electrical suppliers globally,” he added.

Stephen Howell – CEO of ESS Metron – asserted that his organization will keep providing “best-in-class service” to its growing customer base and aid Riot Blockchain in its expansion efforts.

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The American bitcoin mining company is one of the giants in its sector and is even listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “RIOT.” A few months ago, it purchased Whinstone US – the owner-operator of North America’s single largest BTC mining and hosting facility.

Riot’s Previous Purchases

Earlier this year, Riot Blockchain increased its mining capacity by buying 42,000 S19 Antminers from Bitmain (a Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency mining products manufacturer).

The purchase was worth at least $138 million and was part of the firm’s plans to boost its bitcoin mining hashrate, aiming at 7.7 EH per second.

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“By nearly doubling its planned hash rate capacity, Riot continues to take great strides forward in growing both the Company’s and the United States’ share of the global network hash rate,” – said Megan Brooks, COO of Riot Blockchain.

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SEC Rejects WisdomTree’s Bitcoin ETF Proposal

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The SEC has rejected another Bitcoin ETF, reiterating its oft-repeated concerns about market manipulation.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has expectedly shot down WisdomTree’s proposal to launch a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.

In its order, the SEC explains that the rejection is necessary to protect investors from “fraudulent” and “manipulative” acts.   

As reported by U.Today, VanEck’s spot Bitcoin ETF proposal was rejected as well in early November.    

According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, the regulator will highly likely deny Kryptoin’s spot ETF bid as well before Christmas. 

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While the SEC has greenlit futures-based ETFs in October, the regulator is hesitant to approve an ETF that will directly track the value of the largest cryptocurrency, continuing its string of rejections that started with the application of the Winklevoss twins all the way back in 2013.

As reported by U.Today, SEC Chair Gary Gensler recently said that Bitcoin is trading on unregulated exchanges around the globe that operate outside the U.S. regulatory register, which explains why the regulator is not on board with a spot Bitcoin ETF. 

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