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RIPPLE’S STRING OF WINS ANALYZED, XRP LAWSUIT TO DRAG ON UNTIL SPRING 2022

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“Absent a settlement, this case will not be decided until March 2022 at the earliest and possibly not even until late spring if the court decides not to rule on some of the pending motions until after the discovery deadline, which looks really possible”.

Thien-Vu Hogan has provided some key insights into the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit after Judge Netburn ordered the SEC to address many unanswered questions.

Although the Judge dubbed most of Ripple’s requests for admission as “theater”, she did find many of the defendants’ RFAs and interrogatories relevant to the case.

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This was a clear win for Ripple as the SEC’s case is increasingly viewed as circumstantial. “The SEC is gonna be forced to argue that Ripple marketed to retail purchasers as though there was an investment contract”.

“It’s a circumstantial case, but the SEC didn’t want to come out and say that, so Judge Netburn is forcing the SEC’s hand”, said Ms. Hogan in a video.

With that being said, the SEC being forced to address all XRP sales contracts, the SEC is now in a tough position.

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“It either has to admit there is nothing in writing that forms an investment contract and therefore admit that the case is circumstancial; or it can go through each and every contract and try and find something in the contract that somehow ties Ripple to people who bought XRP on Coinbase last year”.

The legal expert’s instinct is that the plaintiff is that the SEC won’t go down that road and will concede it is bringing a marketing case. But, much much like in a murder case with no hard evidence such as fingerprints or eye witnesses, “you can win that case, but it isn’t the easieast way to win.”

THE HIDDEN GEM

The Hogan team also discussed the hidden gem found by Ripple’s counsel team, who pointed that the SEC website says whether a blockchain is fully funcional is relevant to the Howie analysis.

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That is something the SEC has been trying to deny this entire litigation as the agency has even bent over backwards to say Hinman’s 2018 speech on Ethereum not being a security is not an official SEC position.

“Larsen moves to compel the SEC to contend whether “the XRP Ledger was not fully functional before the start of the ongoing securities offering alleged in the Complaint […] Defendants counter that the SEC’s own public-facing website states that whether a digital asset “is not fully functional at the time of the offer or sale” is relevant in a Howey analysis. The Court
agrees that this interrogatory seeks relevant information”, the judge wrote.

The court ordered the parties to meet and confer the definition of “fully functional” to facilitate resolution of this dispute and ordered the SEC to answer Chris Larsen interrogatory.

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The court ruling proves that the Judge thinks that it relevant, no matter what the SEC says and it is going to take that into account. “That is good news, really good news”, Ms. Hogan concluded.

SEC V. RIPPLE WON’T BE DECIDED UNTIL MARCH 2022 AT THE EARLIEST

As to the two month discovery extension to January 2022, the attorney stated that is “can only hurt Ripple” and that this court moves at its own pace, much slower than most courts, “where motions to strike affirmative defenses or to dismiss complaints are dealt with right away so the parties know what the pleadings are going into discovery”.

So, the bad news for XRP investors is that “absent a settlement, this case will not be decided until March 2022 at the earliest and possibly not even until late spring if the court decides not to rule on some of the pending motions until after the discovery deadline, which looks really possible”.

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XRP Price Prediction: Ripple momentum weakens as bears contemplate 15% decline

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  • XRP price dropped below a crucial support level on November 26, possibly unraveling a bearish forecast.
  • The governing technical pattern suggests that Ripple could see a decline of 15%.
  • To avoid the pessimistic outlook, XRP would need to climb above $1.07.

XRP price fell below an essential line of defense on November 26, opening up the possibility of further decline for Ripple. The cross-border remittance token is now struggling to tag higher levels as selling pressure increases.

XRP price faces minor sell-off

XRP price has sliced below the lower boundary of the ascending parallel channel pattern on the daily chart, unraveling a bearish outlook. The prevailing chart pattern suggests a 22% decline from the downside trend line from $1.03.

XRP price may discover its first line of defense at $0.92, where the support line given by the Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) sits. The following foothold will emerge at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.86. If investors continue to engage in profit-taking, Ripple may drop lower to tag the bearish target at $0.79, resulting in a 15% descent.

If a massive spike in sell orders occurs, XRP price may drop even lower, exceeding the aforementioned target, reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.70, corresponding to the July 30 low.

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The Arms Index (TRIN) which gauges overall market sentiment suggests that there are substantially more sellers than buyers in the market.

XRPUSDT

XRP/USDT daily chart

If the bulls decide to step in to undo the bearish narrative, XRP price will face immediate resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.96, coinciding with the 50% retracement level.

XRP price may have a chance at restoring its uptrend if it climbs back above the downside trend line of the parallel channel at $1.07, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a stiff hurdle may appear close by at $1.11, where the 21-, 50- and 100-day SMAs intersect. 

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An acceleration of interest in Ripple may see XRP price ascend higher toward the middle boundary of the prevailing chart pattern at $1.25.

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Ripple Price Analysis: XRP spikes to $0.91, support found?

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  • Ripple price analysis is bullish for the rest of the day.
  • XRP/USD saw heavy selling earlier today.
  • Support found around $0.91. 

Ripple price analysis is bullish today as a strong lower low has been set at $0.91, with buying pressure returning right now. Therefore, we expect bears to be exhausted, leading XRP/USD higher later today.

Ripple Price Analysis: XRP spikes to $0.91, support found? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The market has seen strong selling pressure over the last 24 hours. The market leaders, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are down by 6.07 and 7.1 percent, while Ripple (XRP) has lost almost 9 percent.

Ripple price movement in the last 24 hours: Ripple breaks $1.02 support, finds support at $0.91

XRP/USD traded in a range of $0.9367 – $1.06, indicating strong volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 35.61 percent, totaling $4.27 billion, while the total market cap trades around $44.745 billion, ranking the coin in 7th place overall.

XRP/USD 4-hour chart: XRP looks to reverse from $0.91

On the 4-hour chart, we can see slight rejection for further downside for the Ripple price as bears are exhausted after a strong selloff earlier today.

Ripple Price Analysis: XRP spikes to $0.91, support found?
XRP/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Ripple price has seen consolidation in an increasingly tighter range above $0.102 support over the past week. The $1.02 mark was initially reached on the 18th of November after a strong decline from the $1.35 previous major swing high.

Despite the $1.02 support holding, further lower lows were set over the week, slowly building up pressure in the market. Yesterday, another lower high was set at $1.06, leading to more downside overnight.

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Ripple price continued lower to $1.02 when a sharp break lower was finally seen over the past hours. Currently, XRP/USD has found low around $0.91, likely leading to recovery over the next 24 hours.

Ripple Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Ripple price analysis is bullish today as further downside currently gets rejected after a spike to $0.91 earlier today. Therefore, XRP/USD has likely found a new low, leading to a retracement over the next 24 hours.

While waiting for Ripple to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.

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XRP holds key support while indicators point to short-term recovery

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  • Ripple started a recovery wave above a key support level of $1.024. 
  • XRP price started an upside correction as indicators suggest a short-term recovery.
  • The coin may initiate a fresh downtrend upon a breakout of the $1.024 support level.

XRP is in the process of forming a triple bottom price pattern boding more upside, for the pair priced against the US dollar., XRP price recently found support at the pattern’s base during the formation of the third bottom. Now, Ripple is at a crossroads – a spike in selling pressure may drive a bearish breakout, whilst technical indicators signal a bullish reversal. It all depends on whether or not a critical support level holds. 

XRP rejected above the triple bottom at $1

XRP has found support above $1.024 and started a bullish recovery similar to peer altcoins. The XRP price has found footing at the $1.024 level for the third time making it a triple bottom pattern.

If there is increased demand at the current price level it will push the XRP price towards its double top level at $1.108. However, the 20 and 50-period exponential moving averages may act as minor hurdles at $1.076 and $1.108. 

The MACD has closed the first histogram above the 0 mark, indicating a bullish reversal. While the RSI is still holding at 44, a crossover above 50 may encourage investors to go long. In that case, the XRP price might spike towards $1.165. Additional gains could lift the price towards the next key hurdles at $1.218 or $1.284 

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 Ripple 12-hourly chart - Triple bottom to drive uptrend

 XRP 12-hourly chart – Triple bottom to drive uptrend

If XRP disappoints to start a new spike above the $1.081 level, it could extend losses. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.024 level.

The upward trend that started on September 21 also extends to significant support at the $1.024 mark. Therefore, a break below the $1.024 support level might push the price further down. The next critical support level is near $0.963, below which the price may fall to the $0.888 level.

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