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Avalanche (AVAX)

AVAX tops the crypto predictability list… but the other tokens may surprise you

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You can’t predict the future, but you can learn from the past.

And some crypto tokens are much (much) more predictable than others, when you analyze their historical trading patterns.

In fact, five cryptocurrencies in particular have exhibited the kind of trading predictability that could give sharp-eyed crypto traders a huge advantage in the markets.

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These five tokens have all demonstrated one thing in common:

  • After strong bullish conditions were detected, they averaged an increase in value when measured after 24, 48, and 72 hours
  • After extreme bullish conditions were detected, on average they also rose after 24, 48, and 72 hours
  • The minimum average gain over 72 hours following an extreme flag was a startling 10%

While this is a measure of past trading activity and (of course) not a promise of future performance, it’s remarkable to note that these tokens, led by Avalanche (AVAX) exhibit behaviors that consistently average out to major gains, even as other tokens – including AAVE and Curve (CRV) – tend to *decrease* in value over similar timeframes, and still other tokens exhibit few correlations to historical trading conditions at all.

Background to identifying predictability

If you have been following Cointelegraph at all this past year, you have probably read about proprietary data intelligence platform Markets Pro, and the quant-style trading indicator called the VORTECS™ Score.

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In purely hypothetical, automated tests the metric generates some mind-bending ROI that can reach dozens of thousands of percent when compounded over several months.

When it comes to putting historical precedent to work as a regular investor, though, knowing each crypto asset’s individual habits is more helpful than marveling at the aggregate data. Here’s one way traders could tell which assets are more likely to follow familiar paths on the way to massive returns.

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Whose history rhymes most?

The idea behind the VORTECS™ Score is to provide traders with a birds-eye view on multi-dimensional patterns in crypto assets’ past performance data. The key principle underlying the Score’s utility is that oftentimes individual tokens behave in recognizably similar ways in terms of trading metrics and social sentiment… days before their prices explode (or tank). When spotted early, these regularities can inform trading decisions, even though they are by no means predictive of price action.

Average historical gains

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The chart features twenty coins that have had the most instances of VORTECS™ Scores above 80 or 90, counted since the platform’s launch.

High scores indicate the algorithm’s confidence that the coin’s current outlook is historically bullish. A score of 90, while quite rare, is expressive of the algorithm’s confidence that prices have usually moved higher and with more purpose when it has seen similar trading conditions in the past.

The bars represent average gains after certain times from hitting the high score. For example, the green bar, marked as 72/90 in the legend, represents average gains that the asset has generated 72 hours after hitting the score of 90; the orange bar shows the average returns after 48 hours from hitting the VORTECS™ Score of 80.

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Avalanche (AVAX) is perhaps the most obvious and consistent trade for crypto investors using historical analysis as part of their research. Not only have high scores directly correlated with price appreciation, but the gains have reinforced the algorithm’s thesis perfectly.

Score 80, Sell after 24 hours: Average gain 3%

Score 80, Sell after 48 hours: Average gain 6%

Score 80, Sell after 72 hours: Average gain 9%

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Score 90, Sell after 24 hours: Average gain 12%

Score 90, Sell after 48 hours: Average gain 16%

Score 90, Sell after 72 hours: Average gain 28%

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Some others are also highly consistent, with bars sitting closely together.

Axie Infinity (AXS) is a great example: 4% at 24/80, 7% at 48/80, 9% at 72/80.

Others delivered modest returns after hitting 80 but did exceptionally well after scoring 90:

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For example, Tellor (TRB) with average returns of 5% at 72 hours after hitting 80 and 17% at 72 hours after scoring 90.

Some bars even point below zero, marking those tokens that tended to lose value following high VORTECS™ Scores – however, these are vastly outnumbered.

The majority of crypto assets that cross the VORTECS™ Score of 80 see consistent appreciation in the next 24 to 72 hours, and often for a longer time.

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What the chart suggests is that traders can be more confident when the VORTECS™ Score lights up on AXS, MATIC, AVAX, LUNA, and TRB while exercising more caution with the likes of AAVE or CRV.

The Markets Pro team constantly tracks the performance of individual assets as well as the Score itself. Detailed breakdown of relevant data points is published every weekend in the weekly VORTECS™ report to help subscribers make the best out of their membership.

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Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche dethrones Terra, but here’s what may be next

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Solana has been tough competition in the DeFi space, but Avalanche is looking to take it on soon. Previously, it only had Terra as a competitor since it was still far away from overtaking Solana. Interestingly, Avalanche might do that if it manages to maintain its growth on the charts.

Avalanche in Decentralized Finance

Curiously, Solana replaced Terra to take the third spot. And now, Avalanche has pushed Terra further below as it has taken its fourth spot. Even so, Ethereum continues to dominate the DeFi space.


Top 10 DeFi chains | Source: DeFi Llama – AMBCrypto

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At the time of writing, Avalanche was only $1.1 billion away from taking the third spot from Solana.

Over the month, Avalanche’s TVL has recorded a 62% growth from $8 billion to hit $13.9 billion.

Avalanche TVL | Source: DeFi Llama – AMBCrypto

Avalanche was led by the explosive rise of some major protocols on the network such as Cook finance, Blizz Finance, and Wonderland, among others. Ergo, it is seeing a myriad of investors participating in the network, making the network’s growth actually organic.

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Its overall network development is also decent, growing every day. However, when it comes to how it can be a threat/competition to Solana, the answer isn’t exactly one-directional. Especially since Solana and Avalanche are equally tough.

For starters, the participation boom on Avalanche has led to the revenue figures crossing $1 million and touching $1.9 million at its peak. Solana, on the other contrary, flashed figures of only $280k per day.

Avalanche and Solana total revenue | Source: TokenTerminal

But, in terms of overall trading volumes, the figures are led by Solana with Avalanche trailing somewhat. 

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Avalanche and Solana total trading volumes | Source: TokenTerminal

Notably, social volumes also seemed to indicate that Solana has been slightly more popular and wanted than Avalanche.

Avalanche and Solana social volumes | Source: Santiment – AMBCrypto

However, Avalanche still remains comparatively more attractive given its growing adoption and integration. Consider the latest example, for instance – OlympusDAO.

This is more so because it offers significantly higher risk-adjusted returns, when compared to Solana. This does play an important role in driving investors towards the network.

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Additionally, with a growth rate of 17% observed over the last four days, AVAX, at press time, was only 9% away from hitting a new all-time high. Hence, the future might see more investors entering the Avalanche market when that happens.

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Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance

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  • Avalanche price analysis is bullish today.
  • AVAX/USD is stuck at $124 resistance level.
  • Support is present at $119.5.

The AVAX price analysis is bullish for today, but despite the bullish momentum, the coin is finding it hard to move past the $124 resistance. The current bullish momentum started on 29th November but lost its energy on 30th November as the buying slowed down, which is the driving force behind it. However, today bulls again gathered some strength and took the AVAX price noticeably upwards, and now they are facing trouble at a $124 crucial resistance level.

AVAX/USD 1-day price chart: Bulls need more strength

The 1-day Avalanche price analysis shows bulls have covered an upwards range from $121 to $124 today will swinging as high as $127 at a point today. The AVAX/USD pair is trading hands at $124 at the time of writing, reporting an increase in price value by 3.94 percent. On the other hand, the week

ly gain is quite low, accumulating to only 0.68 percent, the reason being the downward trend during the start of the week when AVAX was reverting back from its ATH at $135. AVAX’s trading volume has increased by almost 52 percent and the market cap by 5.93 percent over the last 24 hours.

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance 1

The volatility is high for the AVAX/USD pair as the Bollinger bands are expanded with the upper band at $138, which represents resistance level as the price is below this level, and the lower band is at the $85 mark. The mean average of the indicator represents support for the crypto pair at the $111 mark.

The relative strength index (RSI) is trading on a slight upwards slope, hinting at a little more buying activity, which started on 29th November in the market. The RSI is still in the upper half of the neutral zone, and for the coin to move above $124, the RSI needs to be near the borderline of the overbought region.

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Avalanche price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indications

The 4-hour price chart for Avalanche price analysis shows that the coin spiked high after the price breakout upwards, but after 4-hours, selling pressure also kicked in as the resistance at $124 is strong, and AVAX needs more support for a breakthrough.

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance 2
AVAX/USD 4-hours price chart. Source: TradingView

The volatility is increasing for AVAX/USD, The upper Bollinger band is now at $217, representing resistance for AVAX as the price trades below the upper band, and the lower Bollinger band is present at the $102 mark. The RSI curve is also downwards, indicating the selling pressure at the moment, as it travels down at index 60.

Avalanche price analysis conclusion

The Avalanche price analysis shows the coin is in bullish momentum, but bulls need more support to make a push through above $124 resistance. The 4-hour chart also shows high pressure at this time, but there are ample chances for AVAX bulls to get the required support in the coming hours, and the AVAX may start its journey above $124.

The volatility is high for the AVAX/USD pair as the Bollinger bands are expanded with the upper band at $138, which represents resistance level as the price is below this level, and the lower band is at the $85 mark. The mean average of the indicator represents support for the crypto pair at the $111 mark.

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The relative strength index (RSI) is trading on a slight upwards slope, hinting at a little more buying activity, which started on 29th November in the market. The RSI is still in the upper half of the neutral zone, and for the coin to move above $124, the RSI needs to be near the borderline of the overbought region.

Avalanche price analysis: Recent developments and further technical indications

The 4-hour price chart for Avalanche price analysis shows that the coin spiked high after the price breakout upwards, but after 4-hours, selling pressure also kicked in as the resistance at $124 is strong, and AVAX needs more support for a breakthrough.

Avalanche price analysis: AVAX unable to break through $124 resistance 2
AVAX/USD 4-hours price chart. Source: TradingView

The volatility is increasing for AVAX/USD, The upper Bollinger band is now at $217, representing resistance for AVAX as the price trades below the upper band, and the lower Bollinger band is present at the $102 mark. The RSI curve is also downwards, indicating the selling pressure at the moment, as it travels down at index 60.

Avalanche price analysis conclusion

The Avalanche price analysis shows the coin is in bullish momentum, but bulls need more support to make a push through above $124 resistance. The 4-hour chart also shows high pressure at this time, but there are ample chances for AVAX bulls to get the required support in the coming hours, and the AVAX may start its journey above $124.

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Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche (AVAX) Parabolic Rally – Is It Over?

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The crypto market has been seeing important corrections lately, but this did not stop the optimistic predictions from hitting the crypto space.

One of the most successful projects lately has been Avalanche and an important analyst is debating whether the coin can go higher in the near future.

Avalanche (AVAX) price prediction

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen addressed whether Avalanche (AVAX) has any gas left in the tank after its parabolic rally.

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Just in case you don’t know, AVAX hit its ATH of nearly $145 over the weekend.

The smart contract platform was trading around $13 at the beginning of August, according to the notes coming from CMC.

Cowen said that AVAX is getting “somewhat extended.”

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On the other hand, he said that Avalanche is at the same level of extension that it was at when it hit $60, and then it more than doubled in price.

Cowen says it would be “concerning” to see the coin get even more extended by continuing to rise in a short period of time.

He also said that AVAX’s US dollar valuation is highly dependent on what Bitcoin (BTC) does.

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“As long as Bitcoin stays above its 20-week moving average, then AXAX can continue to rally until it gets too far gone to sustain it in the short term, and then we’ll have a pullback. But as long as Bitcoin stays healthy, then, of course, AVAX can continue to make a move.”

According to the latest reports coming from the Daily Hodl, Cowen noted that AVAX could go up another 50% against Bitcoin.

AVAX could reach $200

According to the analyst, such a move would price Avalanche at just over $200 if Bitcoin’s value remained steady.

As you probably know by now, BTC has been seeing some corrections lately, but this did not stop excited investors from buying the dip.

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