October rally appears to have put the cryptocurrency on a firm footing ahead of central bank meetings in the U.S., U.K., and Australia to assess the stickiness of inflation and determine policy response.
The top rallied nearly 40% in October, hitting a fresh record high of $66,975 as investors cheered positive seasonality and the launch of futures-based bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. That was the biggest single-month percentage rally since December 2020, according to CoinDesk data.
While key indicators favor a positive follow-through in the coming months, it may not be a smooth ride if the impending scaling back of stimulus, also known as the taper, by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks rocks equity markets.
“Bitcoin bullish sentiment remains at fever-pitch, highlighted by NFT. NYC [the annual non-fungible token event] whipping the financial capital into a frenzy,” Jehan Chu, managing partner at Hong Kong-based Kenetic Capital, told CoinDesk in a WhatsApp chat. “[However], if public markets falter on the back of Fed bond purchase tapering, BTC could be dragged into a small correction after breaching all-time highs last week.”
Wednesday’s Fed meeting is widely expected to conclude with policymakers announcing plans to begin tapering the monthly $120 billion in asset purchases that have triggered unprecedented risk-taking across all corners of financial markets over the past 18 months.
Analysts told CoinDesk last month that the Fed taper is priced in. So, the market reaction will depend on the Fed’s language on inflation and the timing of the first interest rate hike.
Several policymakers have recently said that inflation is proving to be more sticky than previously expected. Meanwhile, bond traders and interest rates futures have ramped up bets on early rate hikes.
On Friday, analysts at Goldman Sachs brought forward their forecast for the first rate hike to July from Q3 2023, according to Bloomberg. The investment banking giant expects the second rate hike in November 2022, followed by two hikes in 2023 and 2024.
Fed funds futures are now pricing hikes beginning early in the second half of 2022. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to short-term interest rate/inflation expectations than the 10-year yield, nearly doubled to 50 basis points in October.
While equities and bitcoin have remained resilient, things may change if the Fed statement carries fewer references to inflation being “transitory”. That would perhaps imply policymakers’ growing discomfort with high inflation and validate fears of faster rate hikes, in turn, bringing selling pressure to equities and bitcoin.
ByteTree Asset Management’s Charlie Morris told Bloomberg that bitcoin is a “risk-on inflation hedge”. The cryptocurrency’s gold-like store of value appeal mainly attracts buyers when global financial markets see strong demand for growth-sensitive assets. However, bitcoin mostly takes a beating when global markets wilt.
Aside from the Fed meeting, investors will keep an eye on Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting and Thursday’s Bank of England’s rate decision and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Money markets expect the BOE to hike interest rates this week.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Leading cryptos take the back seat
- Bitcoin price may experience constricted trading conditions as capital enters the broader altcoin market.
- Ethereum price approaches new all-time highs.
- XRP extends bullish momentum to the fourth consecutive daily close above the open.
Bitcoin price is likely to face some underperformance against Ethereum, XRP, and the broader altcoin market. Ethereum price action pushes higher during the Tuesday trading session, making another attempt at new all-time highs. XRP price is close to recovering all of the losses it sustained on Black Friday.
Bitcoin price action to consolidate in the interim
Bitcoin price is currently in a horrible place from a technical analysis perspective. It is in its twelfth consecutive day trading inside the Cloud. The Cloud (red and green shaded areas) within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system is an area of indecision, volatility and frustration. It’s the place where trading accounts go to die. Traders should expect to see sideways activity followed by false breakouts until a clear breakout above or below the Cloud.
Altcoins should catch a bid throughout December, as Bitcoin trades mostly sideways. A trading range between $53,000 as support and $65,000 as resistance is expected. Any breakout above the Cloud will likely see Bitcoin push new all-time highs near the $77,000 value area.
Ethereum charges higher towards new all-time highs
Ethereum price has been somewhat of a surprise given the bearish sentiment and exiting the bear channel. Ethereum is currently just $200 shy of hitting the prior all-time high, showing resilience and outperformance of the broader cryptocurrency market. However, some warning signs should be observed.
ETH/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart
Ethereum is trading up against the upper trendline of a bear flag. At the same time, the Composite Index has printed a high above November 9th high while the corresponding price levels on those dates show lower highs. This creates a form of divergence known as hidden bearish divergence. It is a warning sign that the current swing higher may not be as honest of a move as it appears.
If Ethereum fails to close above the $4,600 value area on the daily chart, a pullback to $4,000 is likely.
XRP price up over 16% from Sunday lows, looks to extend higher
XRP price may be a barometer for how the rest of the altcoin market may behave in December. XRP’s daily Ichimoku chart forms a significant bear trap, which looks very similar to its peers’. Unlike Ethereum’s chart, which shows evidence of overbought conditions, XRP’s chart shows that a bullish extension is very likely to be sustained.
XRP’s behavior over the past two months has been one of epic frustration for bears. There have been nine occasions when XRP has fulfilled all the Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout entry requirements. Unfortunately for the bears, all nine of those occasions have failed to generate any substantive or sustained selling pressure. This repeated failure has undoubtedly trapped a significant number of short-sellers – creating prime conditions for a short squeeze.
XRP/USDT Daily Ichimoku Chart
The critical price level for XRP to close above is the $1.15 value area. From there, XRP price would be positioned in a favorable bullish Ichimoku entry condition that positions XRP towards the $3.00 value area. Down-side risks remain limited to the $0.65 value area.
ETH/BTC Ready to Break Higher? Not So Fast, Some Analysts Say
A much-discussed chart among crypto traders in recent days has been the ethereum (ETH)/bitcoin (BTC) chart, with many claiming it looks primed for a sharp move higher. However, some are still betting on an opposite outcome, with investor demand also indicating stronger appetite for bitcoin.
The potential break-out for ETH has gotten a fresh round of attention following strong outperformance of ETH over BTC during the past week. At 11:57 UTC on Tuesday, ETH was up 11% over the past 7 days, while BTC was up 2.5% over the same time period.
The notable difference in performance came at a time when the stock market has tumbled over renewed coronavirus fears, with the US S&P 500 futures currently down by about 2.9% from its all-time high on Monday last week.
And as has been pointed out by many in recent weeks, bitcoin is still behaving more like a risk asset that fluctuates with the stock market, than a safe haven hedge like gold. This relationship has once again been demonstrated in recent days, some crypto traders have argued.
The ETH/BTC chart has also been pointed to by Raoul Pal, founder & CEO of Real Vision, who said recently that he sees it as “the most important chart in digital asset markets right now.”
“A break higher will lead to more risk seeking into year end,” Pal said, suggesting that we may be entering a new bullish period for altcoins.
However, as usual, not everyone agrees with the narrative that ethereum is about to break higher relative to bitcoin. According to the popular crypto trading educator and Crypto-TA.nl founder Crypto_Ed, the ETH/BTC chart is not breaking out yet, and instead may be looking at a move lower.
“I see many tweeting ETHBTC chart looks so good….. All I see is a rising wedge with bearish divergence and it looks more like it’s gonna break down,” he said, adding that the same also holds true when looking at the same chart with a longer time frame.
So many comments I should look at higher TF…
Well, that's what I taught ~2000 students in past years: "always start at the highest possible TF"
Daily TF: symmetrical triangle, usually in an ABCDE.
E doesn't need to go completely to the bottom but will do a pull back pic.twitter.com/ZpyeI3bGDo— Crypto_Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) November 29, 2021
Similar takes were also shared by other traders.
Futs a bit heavy as well, tough conditions thought we were looking better earlier— Depression BTC (@depression2019) November 30, 2021
Growing capital flows
According to last week’s Digital Asset Fund Flows report from CoinShares, bitcoin appears to be enjoying greater momentum than ethereum in terms of capital flows into regulated investment vehicles.
As reported, last week, BTC saw the largest inflows in 5 weeks totaling USD 247m (compared with USD 114m a week earlier) following the launch of another investment product in Europe, they added. ETH saw inflows totaling USD 23m last week, compared with around USD 13m a week earlier.
3/ demand – we track weekly investment flows via our @CoinSharesCo report
in the last 11 weeks, we've seen $2.7B of inflows into bitcoin ETPs alone. demand continues unabated, and w $5.5T of dry powder on the sidelines, there's plenty of capacityhttps://t.co/Ivu9apdYqv— Meltem Demir◎rs (@Melt_Dem) November 29, 2021
Moreover, Marcus Sotiriou, a sales trader at the UK-based digital asset broker GlobalBlock, is also demonstrating a bullish stance towards bitcoin.
“Bitcoin appears to be forming a falling wedge pattern which is historically bullish and has a higher probability of breaking to the upside than the downside,” the trader wrote in an emailed comment, adding:
“If the down trending line of resistance is broken, bitcoin may be on its way to retest the all-time-high as the technical target is around that region.”
At 11:57 UTC, BTC traded at USD 57,600, up 1.4% over the past 24 hours. At the same time, ETH stood at USD 4,581, up 6.3% over the same time period.
Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH gains 20 percent from the Sunday low, peaks at $4,750?
- Ethereum price analysis is bearish for the rest of today.
- ETH/USD saw further upside above $4,550 previous high.
- Resistance is currently found at $4,750.
Ethereum price analysis is bearish today as we expect a retracement to follow after a strong spike higher was seen again today. However, ETH/USD bulls are likely exhausted after reaching $4,750, and we can expect a retracement over the next 24 hours.
The cryptocurrency market has seen bullish momentum continue today. The market leaders, Bitcoin and Ethereum, have gained 2.45 percent, while Ethereum 8.1 percent. Meanwhile, the rest of the top altcoins follow with similar results.
Ethereum price movement in the last 24 hours: Ethereum retests $4,400 as support, spikes to $4,750
ETH/USD traded in a range of $4,332.10 – $4,753.27, indicating strong volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 37.24 percent, totaling $26.25 billion, while the total market capitalization trades around $555.6 billion, resulting in a market dominance of 20.73 percent.
ETH/USD 4-hour chart: ETH rejects further upside at $4,750
On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Ethereum price reacting after reaching the $4,750 resistance, likely indicating the end of the current rally.
Ethereum price has seen strong bullish momentum return since Sunday. The rally came after a strong drop of almost 15 percent on Friday when Ethereum found support at $3,950 once again.
From there, consolidation followed until another test of the support was seen late in the weekend. Bulls quickly rejected further downside, leading to a swift rally higher over the next 24 hours.
By the start of Today, Ethereum price had already cleared past the $4,400 previous resistance. After a slight retracement, another more upside followed Today, leading ETH to a new high at $4,750.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Conclusion
Ethereum price analysis is bearish today as we saw strong resistance reached at $4,750 after a 20 percent advance over the past days. Therefore, we assume bulls are exhausted, and ETH/USD should be headed for a retracement later today.
While waiting for Ethereum to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.