Connect with us

Bitcoin

Here’s When Bitcoin Could Overtake Gold and Real Estate, According to Quant Analyst PlanB

Published

on

Quantitative analyst PlanB is predicting when the market cap value of Bitcoin (BTC) could overtake that of more traditional assets such as gold and real estate.

In an interview with Blockware Intelligence, the analyst says that BTC could reach a market cap valuation somewhere between gold and real estate by the next halving. A halving occurs when the reward for mining BTC is cut in half. It is believed that the next two halvings will take place in 2024 and 2028.

PlanB then sees Bitcoin’s market cap reaching somewhere between $10 and $100 trillion.

Advertisement

“After the next halving, or really this halving, we should get really close to the gold market cap. 

And after the next halving, it would really surprise me if an asset that is recognized by the market as a store of value, that has more than a trillion dollars in value, if that store of value, with a bigger scarcity than gold, would not at least be valued higher than gold. 

So somewhere between gold and real estate – $10 trillion and $100 trillion, roughly.”

Advertisement

Bitcoin’s market cap is approximately $1.2 trillion at time of writing.

PlanB predicts the next halving could be a catalyst that prompts investors to perceive Bitcoin as a scarce store of value.

“…I think that the halving still will be an impulse for investors because they will recognize and see Bitcoin for what it is – a really scarce asset, and valuable.”

Advertisement

The crypto analyst’s forecasts are based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) trading model, which attempts to predict the price of an asset by measuring the amount of new supply entering the market compared to the amount of already existing supply.

Looking at the S2F applied to Bitcon, PlanB sees an even bigger future for the largest crypto asset by market cap.

“I do think if the stock-to-flow of Bitcoin will be bigger than even real estate – so above 100, and that basically is the case after the next halving – and certainly after the halving in 2028. But let’s say 2024, when we go over real estate, then it will be the most portable, most divisible, more fungible, and also the most scarce asset on the planet. 

Advertisement

I think investors will see that, and that combination will probably mean that people are going to see Bitcoin not as a store of value but as in money. And that will trigger the hyper-Bitcoinization.”

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,196, up 6.04% over the last 24 hours.

News Source

Advertisement

Bitcoin

Wen moon? Data shows pro traders becoming more bullish on Bitcoin price

Published

on

MicroStrategy’s purchase of 7,002 BTC might have helped boost Bitcoin price today, but derivatives data also shows that pro traders are becoming more bullish.

The $4,700 Bitcoin (BTC) price spike on Nov. 29 was likely a great relief for holders, but it seems premature to call the bottom according to derivative metrics. 

This should not come as a surprise because Bitcoin price is still 15% below the $69,000 all-time high set on Nov. 10. Just 15 days later, the cryptocurrency was testing the $53,500 support after an abrupt 22% correction.

Advertisement

Today’s trend reversal was possibly encouraged by MicroStrategy’s announcement that it had acquired 7,002 Bitcoin on Monday at an average price of $59,187 per coin. The listed company raised money by selling 571,001 shares between Oct. 1 and Nov. 29, raising a total of $414.4 million in cash.

More bullish news came after German stock market operator Deutsche Boerse announced the listing of the Invesco Physical Bitcoin exchange-traded note or ETN. The new product will trade under the ticker BTIC on Deutsche Boerse’s Xetra digital stock exchange.

Data shows pro traders are still neutral-to-bullish

To understand how bullish or bearish professional traders are positioned, one should analyze the futures basis rate. That indicator is also known as the futures premium, and it measures the difference between futures contracts and the current spot market at regular exchanges.

Advertisement

Bitcoin’s quarterly futures are the preferred instruments of whales and arbitrage desks. Even though derivatives might seem complicated for retail traders due to their settlement date and price difference from spot markets, the most notorious benefit is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

Bitcoin 3-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch
The three-month futures typically trade with a 5%–15% annualized premium, which is deemed an opportunity cost for arbitrage trading. By postponing settlement, sellers demand a higher price and this causes the price difference.

Notice the 9% bottom on Nov. 27, as Bitcoin tested the $56,500 support. Then, after Monday’s rally above $58,000, the indicator shifted back to a healthy 12%. Even with this movement, there is no sign of excitement, but none of the past few weeks could be described as a bearish period.

Advertisement

Lending markets provide additional insight

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, therefore increasing the returns. For example, one can buy Bitcoin by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing the exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Bitcoin can only be used to short it or bet on the price decrease.

Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t necessarily matched.

OKEx USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKEx

When the margin lending ratio is high, it indicates that the market is bullish—the opposite, a low lending ratio signals that the market is bearish.

Advertisement

The chart above shows that traders have been borrowing more Bitcoin recently, because the ratio decreased from 21.9 on Nov. 26 to the current 11.3. However, the data leans bullish in absolute terms because the indicator favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin.

Derivatives data shows zero excitement from pro traders even as Bitcoin gained 9% from the $53,400 low on Nov. 28. Unlike retail traders, these experienced whales avoid FOMO, although the margin lending indicator shows signs of excessive optimism.

News Source

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Two Smart Contract Competitors Are the Winners Among Institutional Investors, According to Crypto Asset Manager CoinShares

Published

on

Leading digital asset manager CoinShares says institutional investors have a strong appetite for Bitcoin (BTC) and three leading smart contract platforms.

According to the firm, the overall crypto market correction has left investors hungry for more.

“Digital asset investment products saw inflows of US$306m last week suggesting [a] continued appetite for digital assets.”

Advertisement

As usual, BTC led all digital assets in terms of capital inflows, this time in the wake of a new exchange-traded product (ETP) set to launch on the Deutsche Borse exchange.

“Bitcoin saw the largest inflows in 5 weeks totaling US$247m following the launch of another investment product in Europe. This brings the 11 week run of inflows to US$2.7bn.”

BTC is trading at $58,475 at time of writing, up nearly 6% on the day.

Advertisement

The leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH) concluded a strong month of inflows with a week totaling over $23 million.

“Ethereum saw inflows totaling US$23m last week, marking its 5th consecutive week of inflows.”

This week’s big winners in inflows relative to assets under management (AuM) also include the scalable smart contract platform Solana (SOL) and the interoperable blockchain Polkadot, which is designed to support multiple layer-1 smart contract protocols.

Advertisement

“In terms of inflows relative to AuM, Polkadot and Solana continue to be the winners, with inflows representing 8.6% (US$11.5m) and 5.9% (US$14.6m) of AuM respectively last week.”

Image
Source: CoinShares

Ethereum is currently trading at $4,453.79, up 7.5% in the last 24 hours. SOL and DOT are trading at $211.48 and $36.82, respectively, at time of writing.

News Source

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Nayib Bukele sends cryptic response to Bank of England over Bitcoin law criticism

Published

on

  • Nayib Bukele questions England love for El Salvador over Bitcoin adoption.
  • England expreses concern over El Salvador Bitcoin law.
  • Outside England IMF also criticized El Salvador over Bitcoin law.

After he expressed concerns over Bitcoin adoption in the country, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has sent a cryptic response to the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.

Over the weekend, Bailey said he is not a fan of bitcoin or its growing adoption in countries like El Salvador. He expressed concerns while speaking at Cambridge University, asking if Salvadorians are aware of Bitcoin’s volatility.

“It concerns me that a country would choose it as its national currency,” Bailey said in response to a question at an appearance at the Cambridge University student union on Thursday. “What would worry me most of all is, do the citizens of El Salvador understand the nature and volatility of the currency they have.”

Bank of England is not the only international body to express concerns over Bitcoin adoption by El Salvador. Since June, when the Central American country announced its Bitcoin intention, numerous global financial organizations have tried to warn the country not to do it.

Advertisement

Outside the Bank of England, the IMF also criticized the move by the country.

Nayib Bukele’s cryptic, Ironic response

While addressing Bailey’s most recent comments, President Bukele responded in a tweet pointing at the “genuine” concerns that the BOE has for the people of El Salvador.

“Bank of England is “worried about El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin? Really?

Advertisement

I guess the Bank of England’s interest in the well-being of our people is genuine. Right?

I mean, they have always cared about our people. Always.

Gotta love Bank of England,” he wrote.

Advertisement

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as its legal tender months back, and according to Nayib Bukele, there has been progress since the country made the move.

For instance, the nation has used the aforementioned volatility, especially when the price dips, to accumulate more portions of the asset and to use the profits when the price increases to make plans for buying pet hospitals or new schools.

Advertisement

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as its legal tender months back, and according to Nayib Bukele, there has been progress since the country made the move.

For instance, the nation has used the aforementioned volatility, especially when the price dips, to accumulate more portions of the asset and to use the profits when the price increases to make plans for buying pet hospitals or new schools.

News Source

Advertisement
Continue Reading