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Bitcoin Price

Stock to Flow Model Still Predicts $135K Year-End Bitcoin Price

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Bitcoin has recovered from its flash crash this week and one famous pricing model predicts that prices will double by the end of the year.

The popular stock-to-flow model, created by the pseudonymous “PlanB,” has been pretty accurate in predicting Bitcoin prices so far.

The brainchild behind the model has stated that the mid-cycle average should be around $100K per BTC. The cycles are taken between each halving event, the last being in May 2020 and the next in May 2024, about 900 days away.

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He added that prices should be above that average now, but his floor model predicts $135K for a single BTC by the end of the year, which is in line with the S2F model.

Wild Bitcoin Price Predictions

The prediction model was originally published in March 2019. It explores the relationship between the supply production and the current stock available, essentially calculating Bitcoin’s value through scarcity.

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In June, CryptoPotato reported that the author predicted Bitcoin would be at $98K by November before pushing to $135K to end the year. In reality, the asset is well below that level at the moment, hitting an all-time high of $69K on Nov 10.

When asked if he was still confident about that $98K November prediction, the analyst replied:

“Yup, I would be surprised, in fact it would be kind of an outlier if Nov close would not be $98K (plus or minus 5%).”

To reach the magic $135K prediction, Bitcoin prices would need to gain a further 107% from their current levels.

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In August, the model and its creator stated that markets were entering the second leg of the bull cycle, which turned out to be accurate with the new ATH 7 months after the first one of this cycle. In the same month, cryptographer Adam Back also predicted that BTC would hit $100K by Christmas.

The S2F multiple, which tracks the actual price compared with the predicted one, is currently reporting a deviation of -0.41 from the expected model price of $98K.

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BTC Current Outlook

Bitcoin has recovered a little from its leveraged trader-induced crash to $63K on Thursday. It is currently consolidating a little above that level, trading flat on the day at $65,000 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

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Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC rejects upside at $59,000, more downside to follow?

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  • Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today.
  • BTC/USD spiked to $59,000.
  • Closest support at $56,000.

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as we saw upside rejected after a quick rally today. Therefore, BTC/USD is not yet ready to set higher highs, and we will likely see more downside tested over the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC rejects upside at $59,000, more downside to follow? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The cryptocurrency market has seen mixed results over the last 24 hours. The market leader, Bitcoin, declined by 2.29 percent, while Ethereum gained 3.55 percent. Terra (LUNA) was the top performer, with a gain of 12 percent.

Bitcoin price movement in the last 24 hours: Bitcoin retests $59,000 previous high, quickly rejects lower

BTC/USD traded in a range of $56,375.16 – $58,879.67, indicating strong volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 19.75 percent, totaling $39.4 billion, while the total market cap trades around $1.08 trillion, resulting in market dominance of 41.17 percent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart: BTC looks to test downside again

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price action returning towards previous support over the last hours, likely leading to another retest of the $56,000 support.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC rejects upside at $59,000, more downside to follow?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price has traded in a clear bearish momentum for most of November. After a quick spike higher on the 8th of November, a new all-time high was set at $69,000. From there, BTC/USD saw a strong reversal over the next week.

Almost 20 percent were lost until strong support was finally found at $56,000 on the 19th of November. After a brief retracement, the support got retested again on the 23rd of November. 

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Meanwhile, further lower highs were set, indicating a bearish market structure still in play. This gave the momentum for bears to finally break another lower low to $53,500 last Friday. 

After some consolidation over the weekend, the Bitcoin price saw a quick reaction higher overnight to Monday. Initially, the $58,280 mark was reached, with further higher highs reached with quick spikes higher over the last 24 hours.

Ultimately, the $59,000 previous high was not broken, meaning that another wave lower should follow over the next days.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as we saw the $59,000 resistance reject the market lower over the past hours. Therefore, BTC/USD is still not ready to break previous highs, likely leading to more downside later this week.

While waiting for Bitcoin to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC slowly consolidates above $54,000, prepares to retrace?

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  • Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today.
  • BTC/USD continues to respect support at $54,000.
  • Closest resistance at $56,000

Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today as we expect a retracement to follow after failure to reach more downside over the last 24 hours. Therefore, BTC/USD is set to recover some of the loss seen on Friday, with the closest resistance seen at $56,000 previous support.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC slowly consolidates above $54,000, prepares to retrace? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The market overall has seen bearish sentiment over the last 24 hours. The market leaders, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are both in the red, with a loss of 0.98 and 1.02 percent. Meanwhile, Terra (LUNA) is one of the exceptions, with a gain of over 5 percent

Bitcoin price movement in the last 24 hours: Bitcoin consolidates above $54,000

BTC/USD traded in a range of $53,806.36 – $55,223.47, indicating small volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has declined by 24.84 percent, totaling $24.4 billion, while the total market cap trades around $1 trillion, resulting in a market dominance of 41.79 percent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart: BTC looks to reverse? 

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price failing to move lower, likely leading to a reversal over the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC consolidates above $54,000, prepares to retrace?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price has seen previous bearish momentum slow down this week. After a strong decline last week to the $56,000 mark, the support was retested again early this week.

Bears failed to breach lower, resulting in a consolidation formed on Tuesday. From there, BTC/USD rallied to set another lower high, around $59,000, before moving lower again.

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This time, the $56,000 support failed, leading to the next support at $54,000 quickly reached. However, since then, the Bitcoin price action has consolidated close to the low as the market is indecisive on where to go next. The most likely scenario is a retracement from the previous lows as bears are likely exhausted after a strong selloff on Friday.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusion 

Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today as we expect more upside to be tested later today after the $54,000 support prevented further downside over the last 24 hours. Therefore, BTC/USD could see the $56,000 support tested as resistance later today.

While waiting for Bitcoin to move further, see our articles on the Best Crypto Wallet 2021, Decred Wallet, and Ripple vs SEC.

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Bitcoin Price Stumbles But On-Chain Metrics Still Intact!

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The cryptocurrency market has taken a hit as a result of concerns about a new Covid version that was discovered in South Africa. The price of Bitcoin is currently trading at $54,941 and has gained 1.5 percent in the last 24 hours.

Although the short-term price action appears bearish, the underlying fundamental and on-chain trend remains robust, implying that the bull market is likely to continue. Bitcoin has tested a significant uptrend support line near $54K, putting it in a critical technical support zone.

Despite a 22% drop from recent highs of $69K, the trend in on-chain measures is still very favourable. The fact that LTHs and miners aren’t selling aggressively is a tremendously optimistic sign. Long liquidations, younger coins realising losses, and, more lately, the macro risk-off related virus concerns have all contributed to the selling pressure.

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The SOPR is a basic on-chain data indicator that can indicate the current benefit of each exit on the blockchain or simply determine the ratio between the prices of a purchase and sell order.

If the SOPR number is more than one, it indicates that a trader made a profit on the market. Most short-term traders have quit at a loss in this situation, which means they’ll be looking at the entry as the price approaches their departure point. According to market statistics, the most selling pressure existed between $56,000 and $55,000.

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Short-term traders were the most active sellers on the market during yesterday’s severe sell-off, according to Glassnode data.The Spent Output Profit Ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders has sharply reduced, indicating that most short-term Bitcoin holders “panic sold” when the first cryptocurrency retraced a few percentage points, according to the presented graphic.

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