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First Mover Asia: Bitcoin drifts lower after taproot upgrade; ether drops

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The most significant improvement to the Bitcoin network in four years generated weekend enthusiasm in the blockchain community (and a short video) – but nothing too exciting in terms of a price reaction.

Good morning, Here’s what’s happening this morning:

Market Moves: Bitcoin’s highly anticipated Taproot upgrade fails to produce any noticeable price pop.

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Good morning, Here’s what’s happening this morning:

Market Moves: Bitcoin’s highly anticipated Taproot upgrade fails to produce any noticeable price pop.

Technician’s take: Short-term upside appears to be limited given the loss of positive momentum.

Prices

Bitcoin (BTC): $64,514 +0.4%

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Ether (ETH): $4,562 -1.7%

Market moves

Bitcoin was trading flat after Taproot, the blockchain’s biggest network upgrade in four years, went live.

The upgrade, which took effect at 5:15 coordinated universal time (1:15 a.m. HKT/SGT), had been closely tracked by cryptocurrency traders and analysts as a supporting market factor, though many experts had told CoinDesk earlier this month that the phase-in was likelier to be seen as a long-term technological advance than a near-term price catalyst.

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The tech milestone was celebrated by Bitcoin enthusiasts, with at least one pop-up “Taproot.watch” website posting a commemorative (and somewhat amusing) video to ring in the blockchain’s new era.

“Although the Taproot upgrade is generally a positive development, the verdict is still out if it will make a big improvement to the blockchain world,” Apifiny CEO Haohan Xu wrote in emailed comments.

The largest cryptocurrency has been trading mostly in the low $60,000′s since hitting an all-time high near $69,000 last week. Researchers at the crypto exchange Kraken wrote Friday that buy orders are concentrating around $62,000, while there appear to be interested sellers around $67,000 to $69,000.

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Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $65,000 as buyers continued to take some profits. Lower support is seen around $60,000, which could stabilize the current pullback.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart is near oversold levels, similar to Oct. 27, which preceded a near 10% price rise. This time, however, buyers could face resistance around $65,000 given the loss of upside momentum this week.

Indicators suggest a period of consolidation could persist after upside  signals appeared on the charts last week. Further, a negative  on the daily RSI suggests limited upside over the short-term.

The weekly chart showed improving price momentum, although a decisive breakout above $69,000 needs to be confirmed before projecting upside targets.

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Important events

  • 9:30 a.m. HKT/SGT (1:30 a.m. UTC): China House Price Index (Oct.)
  • 10 a.m. HKT/SGT (2 a.m. UTC): China Industrial Production (Oct. YoY)
  • 10 a.m. HKT/SGT (2 a.m. UTC): China Retail Sales (Oct. YoY)
  • 12:30 p.m. HK/SGT (4:30 a.m. UTC): Japan Industrial Production (Sept. YoY)
  • 6 p.m. HK/SGT (10 a.m. UTC) Eurostat Trade Balance (Sept.)

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Doesn’t Work as a Form of Payment, According to Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky – Here’s Why

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The CEO of crypto lending platform Celsius does not think that Bitcoin (BTC) has the correct properties to become a suitable payment option. 

In a new interview on Coin Stories, Alex Mashinsky offers a contrasting picture between the qualities of the US dollar and the leading cryptocurrency. 

“I’d much rather be in a scenario where the dollar remains as the reserve currency but Bitcoin continues to do very well…

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The dollar is a phenomenal form of payment. It’s a horrible store of value and Bitcoin is a phenomenal store value, but it’s a pretty bad form of payment.”

Mashinsky highlights that it is not a great idea to use Bitcoin to pay for goods and services as he says that people who have done so in the past often regret making the transaction. 

“If you fell for Elon Musk’s deal where he gave you a Tesla for two or three Bitcoins, obviously you hate driving that Tesla because you would in a second go back and take those three Bitcoins and return the Tesla, which lost value during the same period of time. 

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Anything you bought with Bitcoin in the last 10 years, you rather have the Bitcoin back and would have paid in US dollars. That’s really the crux of the matter that you cannot use it as a form of payment or cannot use it in a way that makes you happy about the transaction.”

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Is Bitcoin Officially in Bear Territory? Crypto Analyst Michaël van de Poppe Analyzes State of BTC After Deep Pullback

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A widely followed crypto strategist and trader is looking at the state of Bitcoin to determine whether the largest crypto asset by market cap has crossed bear territory.

Hours before the deep crypto pullback, analyst Michaël van de Poppe told his 518,000 Twitter followers that he was expecting Bitcoin to correct hard and leave an impression that the bull market is over.

“The scenario is very simple.

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  • People expected a peak bull run in December. Not happening.
  • Let the market correct due to that.
  • People will expect a bear market at the low (approx. $47,000-$50,000).
  • Moon the markets and leave everyone behind.

Supercycle.”

With Bitcoin trading below $50,000, Van de Poppe says BTC is still in a bull market and highlights that he believes the correction is now over.

“Overall, this should be the low of a standard 30-40% correction in the markets.

However, corrections are super wicky the past few years in Bitcoin as there’s such a massive amount of leverage in the markets.

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Through that, we overshoot.

But all good, should be done now.”

Looking at the charts, Van de Poppe says there’s a decent chance that Bitcoin will launch a V-shaped reversal or a sharp rally where BTC revisits its all-time high around $69,000 by early next year.

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“Rounding off the day with this chart on Bitcoin.

I think that the chances for a V-shape recovery are there.

We’ll see coming week how it unfolds, but these bounces are significant and good.”

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Image
Source: Van de Poppe/Twitter

Bitcoin is exchanging hands at $48,994, down over 7% in the last 24 hours.

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This Bitcoin fractal predicted the fall, but here’s the next price target

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Bitcoin, along with the larger crypto-market, dropped the ball after the most recent price fall had echoes of 19 May’s crash. With BTC shedding 25% of its value in a matter of a few hours, the market seemed to reset to its September-end levels. While it was trading around the $49k-mark at press time, for a brief moment, it did tread close to $42,000 too.

The aforementioned price fall led to a mass wipeout, giving way to over $2.5 billion liquidations across the market. Ergo, the question – Does the macro bullish outlook for Bitcoin remain intact? 

The dip was overdue 

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price had been in a falling wedge structure since the 16 November crash. Looking at the larger structure for the past month, it can be argued that the latest crash to the $42k level was overdue.

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On zooming out, a look at BTC’s weekly chart highlighted how after the 4 December crash, the price broke the MA 50 trend-line. 

Source: TradingShot

During the previous major corrections too, the price had broken below this level in May and then again, in late June. However, it has always managed to hold it.

In fact, this level has acted as a support for the +100% rally from July to November. Thus, as long as the weekly closes above or at least around the 1W MA50, BTCUSD has a legitimate probability of forming support there and starting a new rally.

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Interestingly, an RSI fractal seemed also to be in play here. As noted in the chart above, a similar RSI structure was seen from mid-2019 to early 2020, as seen from early 2021 to the time of writing. The key catalyst in both cases was the sell-off due to COVID fears.

However, this crash was more of a combination of multiple factors like the panic among retail investors, tech market crash, over-leveraged crypto-markets, high Open Interest, positive funding rate, and so on. 

So, what’s next?

For now, while the price has rebounded, another fall to the lower $40k-level cannot be discarded.

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However, BTC’s two main utility indicators continue to rise – A good signal. BTC’s token circulation and its daily active addresses, at press time, sat at a 6-month high. In fact, they seemed likely to continue their uptrend too. 

Source: Sanbase

Furthermore, the estimated leverage ratio dropped by 22% in just one day. This was last seen in September when the price dropped by 24% and touched $40k.

In case a similar rally follows and BTC’s price makes a similar structure, the next minimum target of $75k for Bitcoin towards the end of January 2022 can be expected. 

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Source: CryptoQuant

At the time of writing, the biggest takeaway as BTC’s price rebounded from its lower levels seemed to be that the market dynamics have been looking very different than previous cycles.

Even though volatility was still high, the market seemed to move from FOMO-induced price tops and sell-offs to more mature and sustainable growth while flushing leverage. Nonetheless, with the price structure still tilting towards bearish, despite the bounce, it would be best to be cautious.

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