Connect with us

Bitcoin

Bitcoin price dips under $60K as Dollar Strength Index reaches 16-month highs

Published

on

Bitcoin (BTC) logged its worst daily performance since September as BTC price slid by 10% to under $59,000 on Nov. 16. On the other hand, the United States dollar jumped to its best level in sixteen months after spending across the American retail sector grew despite persistent COVID-19 fears and inflation concerns.

The BTC price established an intraday low of around $58,600 on Coinbase, only to retreat higher to reclaim $60,000 as its psychological support. Its move downside appeared as U.S. President Joe Biden signed the $550 billion infrastructure bill into law, including new tax-reporting requirements for cryptocurrency users.

Advertisement

Stronger retail data

Meanwhile, the dollar continued its prevailing bull run smoothly as sales at the U.S. retail stores rose by 1.7% in October versus 0.4% in the previous month. That provided further evidence — after an excellent Nonfarm Payrolls report last week — that the U.S. economy has been rebounding strongly from the COVID-19 lows.

As a result, investors raised their bids on the dollar, anticipating that the Federal Reserve would accelerate the tapering of its $120 billion a month asset purchase program, leading to earlier-than-expected rate hikes, which have remained near zero since March 2020. 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of top foreign currencies, touched an intraday high of 95.821 on Nov. 16, its highest level since July 2020. Conversely, Bitcoin, which rallied strongly against a lower interest rate environment throughout 2020 and 2021, retreated.

Advertisement
DXY weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

More gains ahead for the dollar

Analysts anticipated that the dollar would continue its growth higher in the coming months ahead, with market analyst Scott Melker predicting the DXY will reach 97.50.

At the core of Melker’s bullish outlook was a “Double Bottom” setup.

In detail, Double Bottoms appear when the price forms two low points on a similar horizontal level to represent a potential bullish reversal. A bullish confirmation comes when the price breaks above a specific resistance level — a high point between the two bottoms — to target level at a length equal to the pattern’s maximum height.

So it appears, the U.S. Dollar Index has been breaking out of a similar Double Bottom setup, as shown in the chart below.

Advertisement
DXY daily price chart featuring double bottom setup. Source: Scott Melker, TradingView

Bitcoin grapples with a mixed outlook

Bitcoin has more than doubled its prices in 2021 amid growing concerns about inflation. Nigel Green, chief executive of DeVere Group, noted that the cryptocurrency may keep on surging in value at least until the second quarter of 2022, citing the U.S. consumer price index’s (CPI) recent climb to its three-decade high.

“This latest data out of the U.S. will only compound global fears about inflation as price pressures run hot around the world,” he noted, adding:

“In this inflationary period, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, which has been almost universally hailed as the ultimate inflation hedge — until now.”

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with crypto exchange Luno in Singapore, called Bitcoin’s ongoing correction a “healthy pullback,” especially after its 175%-plus year-to-date price rally to $69,000.

“It would be unusual to keep moving up without corrections,” he noted.

On the other hand, Joel Kruger, a currency strategist at LMAX Group, said that a tighter Fed policy would start weighing on the broader market, hitting the riskiest assets the hardest, a reason why Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have been retreating against a rising dollar.

Advertisement

Martha Reyes, head of research at Bequant, a digital-asset firm, also called Bitcoin “a risk-on investment,” stating that people would want to raise cash from the most profitable assets in times of stress.

Bitcoin was trading at $60,625 at the time of writing. 

News Source

Advertisement

Bitcoin

Wen moon? Data shows pro traders becoming more bullish on Bitcoin price

Published

on

MicroStrategy’s purchase of 7,002 BTC might have helped boost Bitcoin price today, but derivatives data also shows that pro traders are becoming more bullish.

The $4,700 Bitcoin (BTC) price spike on Nov. 29 was likely a great relief for holders, but it seems premature to call the bottom according to derivative metrics. 

This should not come as a surprise because Bitcoin price is still 15% below the $69,000 all-time high set on Nov. 10. Just 15 days later, the cryptocurrency was testing the $53,500 support after an abrupt 22% correction.

Advertisement

Today’s trend reversal was possibly encouraged by MicroStrategy’s announcement that it had acquired 7,002 Bitcoin on Monday at an average price of $59,187 per coin. The listed company raised money by selling 571,001 shares between Oct. 1 and Nov. 29, raising a total of $414.4 million in cash.

More bullish news came after German stock market operator Deutsche Boerse announced the listing of the Invesco Physical Bitcoin exchange-traded note or ETN. The new product will trade under the ticker BTIC on Deutsche Boerse’s Xetra digital stock exchange.

Data shows pro traders are still neutral-to-bullish

To understand how bullish or bearish professional traders are positioned, one should analyze the futures basis rate. That indicator is also known as the futures premium, and it measures the difference between futures contracts and the current spot market at regular exchanges.

Advertisement

Bitcoin’s quarterly futures are the preferred instruments of whales and arbitrage desks. Even though derivatives might seem complicated for retail traders due to their settlement date and price difference from spot markets, the most notorious benefit is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

Bitcoin 3-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch
The three-month futures typically trade with a 5%–15% annualized premium, which is deemed an opportunity cost for arbitrage trading. By postponing settlement, sellers demand a higher price and this causes the price difference.

Notice the 9% bottom on Nov. 27, as Bitcoin tested the $56,500 support. Then, after Monday’s rally above $58,000, the indicator shifted back to a healthy 12%. Even with this movement, there is no sign of excitement, but none of the past few weeks could be described as a bearish period.

Advertisement

Lending markets provide additional insight

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, therefore increasing the returns. For example, one can buy Bitcoin by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing the exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Bitcoin can only be used to short it or bet on the price decrease.

Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t necessarily matched.

OKEx USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKEx

When the margin lending ratio is high, it indicates that the market is bullish—the opposite, a low lending ratio signals that the market is bearish.

Advertisement

The chart above shows that traders have been borrowing more Bitcoin recently, because the ratio decreased from 21.9 on Nov. 26 to the current 11.3. However, the data leans bullish in absolute terms because the indicator favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin.

Derivatives data shows zero excitement from pro traders even as Bitcoin gained 9% from the $53,400 low on Nov. 28. Unlike retail traders, these experienced whales avoid FOMO, although the margin lending indicator shows signs of excessive optimism.

News Source

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Two Smart Contract Competitors Are the Winners Among Institutional Investors, According to Crypto Asset Manager CoinShares

Published

on

Leading digital asset manager CoinShares says institutional investors have a strong appetite for Bitcoin (BTC) and three leading smart contract platforms.

According to the firm, the overall crypto market correction has left investors hungry for more.

“Digital asset investment products saw inflows of US$306m last week suggesting [a] continued appetite for digital assets.”

Advertisement

As usual, BTC led all digital assets in terms of capital inflows, this time in the wake of a new exchange-traded product (ETP) set to launch on the Deutsche Borse exchange.

“Bitcoin saw the largest inflows in 5 weeks totaling US$247m following the launch of another investment product in Europe. This brings the 11 week run of inflows to US$2.7bn.”

BTC is trading at $58,475 at time of writing, up nearly 6% on the day.

Advertisement

The leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH) concluded a strong month of inflows with a week totaling over $23 million.

“Ethereum saw inflows totaling US$23m last week, marking its 5th consecutive week of inflows.”

This week’s big winners in inflows relative to assets under management (AuM) also include the scalable smart contract platform Solana (SOL) and the interoperable blockchain Polkadot, which is designed to support multiple layer-1 smart contract protocols.

Advertisement

“In terms of inflows relative to AuM, Polkadot and Solana continue to be the winners, with inflows representing 8.6% (US$11.5m) and 5.9% (US$14.6m) of AuM respectively last week.”

Image
Source: CoinShares

Ethereum is currently trading at $4,453.79, up 7.5% in the last 24 hours. SOL and DOT are trading at $211.48 and $36.82, respectively, at time of writing.

News Source

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Nayib Bukele sends cryptic response to Bank of England over Bitcoin law criticism

Published

on

  • Nayib Bukele questions England love for El Salvador over Bitcoin adoption.
  • England expreses concern over El Salvador Bitcoin law.
  • Outside England IMF also criticized El Salvador over Bitcoin law.

After he expressed concerns over Bitcoin adoption in the country, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has sent a cryptic response to the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.

Over the weekend, Bailey said he is not a fan of bitcoin or its growing adoption in countries like El Salvador. He expressed concerns while speaking at Cambridge University, asking if Salvadorians are aware of Bitcoin’s volatility.

“It concerns me that a country would choose it as its national currency,” Bailey said in response to a question at an appearance at the Cambridge University student union on Thursday. “What would worry me most of all is, do the citizens of El Salvador understand the nature and volatility of the currency they have.”

Bank of England is not the only international body to express concerns over Bitcoin adoption by El Salvador. Since June, when the Central American country announced its Bitcoin intention, numerous global financial organizations have tried to warn the country not to do it.

Advertisement

Outside the Bank of England, the IMF also criticized the move by the country.

Nayib Bukele’s cryptic, Ironic response

While addressing Bailey’s most recent comments, President Bukele responded in a tweet pointing at the “genuine” concerns that the BOE has for the people of El Salvador.

“Bank of England is “worried about El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin? Really?

Advertisement

I guess the Bank of England’s interest in the well-being of our people is genuine. Right?

I mean, they have always cared about our people. Always.

Gotta love Bank of England,” he wrote.

Advertisement

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as its legal tender months back, and according to Nayib Bukele, there has been progress since the country made the move.

For instance, the nation has used the aforementioned volatility, especially when the price dips, to accumulate more portions of the asset and to use the profits when the price increases to make plans for buying pet hospitals or new schools.

Advertisement

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as its legal tender months back, and according to Nayib Bukele, there has been progress since the country made the move.

For instance, the nation has used the aforementioned volatility, especially when the price dips, to accumulate more portions of the asset and to use the profits when the price increases to make plans for buying pet hospitals or new schools.

News Source

Advertisement
Continue Reading