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Dogecoin Adoption Is Likely Exaggerated, Says Australian Central Bank

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Do 5% of Australians really own Dogecoin? An RBA official doesn’t buy it.

While Dogecoin undoubtedly captured the hearts and minds of investors earlier this year, it may not be as popular as people think it is, according to a Reserve Bank of Australia official, The Canberra Times reports.

Tony Richards, head of payments at the RBA, has questioned the veracity of polls that display high rates of cryptocurrency adoption.

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He particularly mentioned one recent survey, which shows that 5% of all Australians own meme cryptocurrency Dogecoin.

Richards explains that such online polls likely exclude older people and areas with poor internet connectivity.

The RBA official pointed to the fact that the market cap of the meme cryptocurrency reached a staggering $88 billion earlier this year, which he believes illustrates the state of the market.

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No threat to the Aussie dollar

Despite the rapid proliferation of cryptocurrencies, Richards does not think that they pose a threat to the Australian dollar since he does not believe that it will reach widespread adoption as a means of payment:

I can’t see shops posting their prices in cryptocurrencies or companies doing their annual reports in cryptocurrencies or lots of people wanting to get paid in cryptocurrencies.

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He believes that investors may also become more vigilant about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies, such as regulatory uncertainty, their environmental impact and criminal use cases.

Despite being a crypto skeptic, Richards created a crypto wallet all the way back in 2014 since learning about new payment instruments as part of his job.

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Dogecoin

Dogecoin Price Analysis: A Consolidation Phase In DOGE Coin Hints The Price Will Rise Back To The $0.336

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The DOGE coin is currently under a short-term sideways trend. For the last four months, the price has been resonating in a range, and now with the recent price fall, it is back to the bottom support of $2. A positive news for the crypto investors to rally ahead is the Binance resuming the DOGE coin withdrawn/deposits.

Key technical points:

  • The DOGE coin resonating in a definite range
  • The DOGE price gave a breakout from the falling wedge pattern in the 4-hour time frame chart
  • The intraday trading volume of the DOGE coin is $1.89 Billion, indicating a 0.69% gain.
TradingView Chart

Source- DOGE/USD chart by Tradingview

The DOGE coin price displayed an impressive recovery in October, where the price rallied from $0.196 to the 0.34 mark. However, with the same enthusiasm, the coin indicated a bearish reversal which plunged the coin price back to the bottom support.

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The DOGE price entered within this price range due to the sudden fall of June. However, even after four months, the coin is resonating between these definite levels, indicating a consolidation phase in this coin.

Due to the sideways trend in the price, the crucial EMAs(20, 50, 100, and 200) are drawn too close together, making it challenging to identify a correction signal. Therefore, the crypto traders can use the 50 and 200 EMA in their chart to find the primary trend, which in our case is bearish.

The Relative Strength Index(41) indicates a bearish sentiment within the DOGE coin.

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DOGE/USD Chart In The 4-hour Time Frame

TradingView ChartSource- DOGE/USD chart by Tradingview

The falling DOGE price revealed an excellent opportunity for crypto traders by forming a falling wedge pattern in the 4-hour time frame chart. On November 29th, the price has a breakout from this overhead resistance trendline indicating more confirmation for a rally.

If the price manages to sustain this breakout, the coin traders can consider a long opportunity for them using proper risk management.

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Dogecoin price could see 400% gains if DOGE holders band together

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  • Dogecoin price is moving sideways after a breakout from a descending triangle pattern.
  • A potential 400% move to $1.08 will face obstacles up to $0.35, beyond which, DOGE should rally swiftly.
  • On-chain metrics are hinting at an increase in large transactions and a paradigm shift in the nature of holders.

Dogecoin price is at a crucial tipping point in its evolution with the potential for it to trigger a massive volatile move. Hurdles exist, however, that will make it difficult to reach its intended target, of a new all-time high.

Dogecoin price at make or break levels

Dogecoin price has set up three lower highs and two higher lows, which when connected using trend lines reveals a descending triangle. This technical formation forecasts a 361% upswing to $1.09, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and low to the breakout point at $0.24.

DOGE breached the triangle’s hypotenuse on October 18 at $0.24. Since this point, the meme coin has struggled to move higher but failed.

Interestingly, Dogecoin price has been moving sideways and has retested the $0.193 support level thrice since August 3 with the latest revisit on November 26. This created a triple-tap setup, a bullish technical formation that forecasts a reversal in the trend. 

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Since Shiba Inu has stolen DOGE’s spotlight, things have been calm and consolidative for the original meme coin. If the buying pressure increases, however, pushing Dogecoin price to pierce through the $0.29 level to $0.35, and it produces a daily close above it, it will trigger an uptrend.

In this scenario, it will allow market makers to collect the sell-stop liquidity resting above $0.35. This development will allow DOGE to create a platform for the next leg-up at $0.44.

Clearing this hurdle will open the path to retest the current all-time high for Dogecoin price at $0.74. According to this prediction, DOGE could extend its bull rally to tag $1.09, its intended target. Due to the recent downswing, this upswing will represent a 400% gain from the current position at $0.22.

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DOGE/USDT 1-day chart

DOGE/USDT 1-day chart

As mentioned earlier, Shiba Inu seems to have siphoned off the hype, investors, and capital from Dogecoin, affecting its price, but things seem to be reverting, with some on-chain metrics suggesting a flip of the narrative is possible.

On-chain metrics predict a bright future

Looking at the transaction data tells a story about the nature of investors. Large transactions track transfers that are $100,000 or more. An increase in this metric serves as a proxy for institutions and their investment thesis.

Over the past six months, the number of such transactions has increased by 70.7% from 1,570 to 2,680. This uptick in the metric suggests that high networth investors are starting to take interest in DOGE at the current price levels.

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DOGE large transaction chart

DOGE large transaction chart

While the above metric provides an insight into the potential investments, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows where significant blockades are present. This fundamental index reveals that the DOGE will face formidable challenges ranging from $0.30 to $0.34. Here roughly 500,000 addresses that purchased 47 billion DOGE are “Out of the Money” and are likely to sell to breakeven, increasing the selling pressure.

If buyers overcome this uptick in sell-side momentum and produce a daily close above $0.35, however, it will clear the daily demand mentioned above. This move will also open the path up for market makers to collect liquidity.

All in all, this on-chain metric also promotes a bullish idea for DOGE with a contingency that the bullish momentum pushes the meme coin above $0.35.

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DOGE GIOM chart

While the on-chain metrics described above serve as a tailwind for the bullish thesis, the new addresses joining the network add a dent to it. This metric shows that new users joining the Dogecoin network over the past six months have declined by 34.7% from 34,320 to 22,380.

This reduction indicates that despite the capital inflows observed in the large transaction metric, a majority of investors are not yet interested in DOGE. Hence, this divergence between the new addresses and the large transaction chart paints indecision.

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DOGE new addresses chart

DOGE new addresses chart

The discrepancy noticed above can be explained in the holders’ chart which shows a paradigm shift. In November 2020, the composition of DOGE investors was 74.2% holders (1+ years), 18.6% Cruisers (1 month to 1 year) and 7.2% traders (less than a month). As of November 2021, this composition has changed and shows that cruisers are currently dominating with a 50.7% stake, while holders have dropped to 42.1%. 

This drastic decrease in the long-term holders suggests that these investors have been distributing their holdings over the past year ie., indicating increased sell-side pressure, which adds credence to DOGE’s lackluster performance over the period.

In summary, if long-term holders stop offloading their DOGE holdings, investors can expect Dogecoin price to start inflating.

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DOGE Ownership chart

DOGE Ownership chart

On the other hand, if the selling pressure increases, knocking Dogecoin price below the $0.193 support level, it will lead to a retest of the descending triangle’s base at $0.16. If the bears produce a daily candlestick below this crucial barrier, it will open up DOGE to a massive 45% crash to $0.09, with a potential pitstop at $0.12.

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Ethereum

Ethereum and Dogecoin Primed for Breakouts As Crypto Markets Gear Up for Bullish December, According to Analyst Justin Bennett

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Crypto analyst Justin Bennett says that December could bring rallies to the digital asset markets, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially at the forefront.

The analyst tells his 91,000 Twitter followers that the dollar index (DXY), which compares the USD to a basket of other fiat currencies, is flashing a bullish signal for the crypto markets.

A weaker DXY often signals higher prices for many assets. Bennett notes that DXY may have just had a failed breakout, and could now be facing downward momentum.

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“DXY looks good for a crypto rally heading into December.

Friday’s close back inside this channel indicates weakness. Now for a close below 95.80.

Let’s see.”

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Image
Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

Bennett also has his eye on the chart for the total market cap of crypto (TOTAL). According to him, TOTAL is nearing the end of a large bullish descending wedge. He also notes a divergence between the rising relative strength index (RSI) and the downward price movement. A rising RSI during a downtrend is often interpreted as a hint of a bullish reversal.

“TOTAL falling wedge and bullish divergence developing on the intraday charts.

Something to keep an eye on.”

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Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

Looking at Ethereum, the analyst says that next month looks good for the world’s second-largest crypto. Bennett says ETH is “poised to do well in December,” and could already be jostling for a breakout, as long as it sees more volume.

“ETH approaching a breakout level.

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Just add volume.”

Image
Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

Also joining the rallies, according to Bennett, is leading memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE). He says DOGE is in the middle of a breakout, with its first key resistance at $0.25, and a final resistance level at all-time highs above $0.75.

“DOGE is breaking out.”

Image
Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

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