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While Chainlink prepares for recovery, long bets still not ideal. Here’s why

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Chainlink has laid the ground for a recovery following an oversold RSI and a bullish crossover on the MACD. A move above the 4-hour 20-SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level would open a route towards the $34-mark, provided bulls are able to successfully negotiate past certain swing highs at $30 and $31.5.

At the time of writing, LINK traded at $27.9, down by 1.8% over the last 24 hours.

Chainlink 4-hour Chart

Source: LINK/USD, TradingView

Chainlink attempted a revival after an up-channel breakdown triggered a 22% sell-off between 15-18 November. Although $26-support offered momentary relief, LINK needed to smash past its 20-SMA (red) and 38.2% Fibonacci level to rebuild its price.

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The region between $30-$31.5 also posed some challenges since the 50-SMA (yellow) and 200-SMA (green) posed as resistance. Expect a round of consolidation within this zone as buyers and sellers battle for market control. From there, a move above 27 October’s swing high of $34 would flush out the remaining sell pressure and allow for an uptrend to emerge.

On the flip side, LINK would be exposed to another 10%-22% decline should its price weaken below $26. Bulls would look to introduce new longs at defensive lines of $23.5 and $20.8.

Reasoning 

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LINK’s comeback was backed by a bullish crossover on the MACD and a double top on the Awesome Oscillator. The RSI’s oversold nature also demanded a quick revival. However, keep in mind that each indicator was yet to recover above their respective mid-lines and traders must be cautious of setting up early long trades.

Conclusion 

LINK faced some stiff challenges on its path of recovery. The 20-SMA (red) and 38.2% Fibonacci level were LINK’s immediate hurdles, while a resistance area between $30-$31.5 could threaten to disrupt LINK’s uptrend. Hence, traders must hold off on long trades till LINK closes above 27 October’s swing high of $34.

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Chainlink price ready to reverse, 30% upswing likely for LINK

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  • Chainlink price is reversing its downtrend and is eyeing a higher high to solidify the bullish thesis.
  • On-chain metrics suggest that LINK is in a place of accumulation, adding a tailwind to the rally.
  • A breakdown of the $21.35 support level will invalidate the optimistic outlook.

Chainlink price seems ready for a reversal of its two-week downswing as it attempts to create a higher high. This outlook is also supported by on-chain metrics, which suggest the possibility of accumulation at the current levels for LINK.

Chainlink price to kick-start a rally

Chainlink price has dropped roughly 41% over the past 18 days, creating a swing low at $22.65, which could potentially be the reversal point. From this pivot point, LINK has rallied 14% to where it currently trades – $25.93.

Investors can expect Chainlink price to continue its upswing toward the 50% retracement level at $30.51. This run-up will represent a 17% ascent and in some cases, the uptrend could extend to the 62% Fibonacci retracement level at $32.40. This move, however, would indicate a 30% upswing for LINK. 

LINK/USDT 6-hour chart

LINK/USDT 6-hour chart

The technicals are clearly indicating a bullish outlook for the oracle token and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model also suggests a similar outcome as it hovers around -11.5%.

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This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased LINK over the past month. A negative value indicates that the short-term investors are in the red and this is where long-term holders tend to accumulate.

Therefore, market participants can expect Chainlink price to see a bullish reaction and trigger an upswing.

LINK MVRV 30-day chart

LINK MVRV 30-day chart

On a similar note, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows that Chainlink price has a free path up to roughly $30. Here, nearly 85,000 addresses purchased 117.45 million LINK tokens. 

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Therefore, these underwater investors might offload their holdings if the LINK price rises to their breakeven levels. Hence, market participants need to pay close attention to $30.

LINK GIOM chart

LINK GIOM chart

Regardless of the bullish outlook from both technical and on-chain perspectives, there is a chance Chainlink price might head below the range low at $22.63 to collect liquidity. This move will invalidate the bullish thesis if LINK produces a lower low below $21.35.

In such a scenario, Chainlink price could head lower to retest an immediate support level at $20.79.

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Chainlink Becomes Most-Traded Token Among Whales

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Ethereum whales are actively trading Chainlink, and here’s how the market reacts.

Chainlink flips UNI token in trading volume among 1,000 largest Ethereum addresses. Currently, the token reacts with a small 2.8% growth.

Whale activity

While UNI remains the most-held token among large addresses, Link has the greatest trading volume, which means that whales were either selling or buying the asset. But according to the current price action, buying power exceeds selling pressure.

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Whales currently hold $360 million worth of Link tokens, which is only 1.85% of all funds concentrated among the largest Ethereum blockchain wallets, excluding exchanges and projects.

Ascending volumes

Though Link has taken first place as the most traded token in the last 24 hours, it is still losing to Shiba Inu, which remains in 5th place among the top 10 most purchased tokens, while Link remains in 6th place.

ChainLink Daily Chart
Source: TradingView

The increased trading volume on Link token can be considered a positive sign for the market since higher trading volume for an asset in a bullish trend might act as fuel for a continuation. Trading volumes tend to decrease at the top of the current trend. In the case of Link, the current trading volume tends to decrease but still remains above average.

At press time, Chainlink is trading at $26.40, with a 9.7% price increase in the last four days. Previously, Chainlink lost 30% of its value from the ATH point on the chart. After the global cryptocurrency market correction, Link became even cheaper after dropping by an additional 8%.

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Chainlink Price Analysis: LINK/USD set to break above $25 by midnight

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  • Chainlink price analysis is bearish.
  • LINK/USD retraced to $25 yesterday.
  • LINK/USD is currently trading at $24.5.

Chainlink price analysis is bearish today, as we expect another lower low to be made beyond the current support at $23, which would mark the end of a devastating 5% fall. The next major support for LINK/USD is seen at $22, and it will most likely be broken in the following 24 hours.

Yesterday’s Link low was placed at $26.3. LINK/USD saw a very strong increase in volatility and started plummeting shortly after that, with the new lows being made significantly lower than the previous ones. 

The market rebounded soon after to $27, but this didn’t stop it from dropping again, and currently testing the key support level at $23. The next important levels are seen below $22: Previous low which stopped out many longs during previous swings from higher levels;  currently being retested as support again

Today’s Asian session opened at $24 for LINK/USD, and we saw a sharp fall to $23 within an hour of trading. The previous low at $22 was taken out before we created new lows towards $21 over the past 24 hours.

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Chainlink’s 100 SMA has fallen below its 200 SMA, showing that sellers have won control of the market. The line or support where buying pressure is expected to build up and push the price back toward the resistance at $27 is defined by this crossover point.

Alternatively, a break below this line of support will signal that selling pressure is picking up and may lead to a drop-down to either support at $21 or even the long-term floor at $20.

The RSI and Stochastic indicators have entered the negative territory, suggesting that they’re on the verge of forming bearish divergence patterns. This indicates that bulls are still in control but that bears will need more time to recover.

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LINK/USD 4-hour chart: LINK set to drop further?

On the short-term chart, we see Chasinlink price retracing back to its $23 previous low this morning, setting up for more selling later today.

Chainlink Price Analysis: LINK/USD set to break above $25 by midnight 1
LINK/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The price of Chainlink has continued to drop this week. The LINK/USD pair first dropped below $38, the previous major swing high set on November 10th, and has subsequently declined by around 40 percent to $23.

The price has been declining steadily since then, and it appears that bearish pressure is on the rise once more. Yesterday, LINK recovered some of its losses and returned to test previous resistance at $25 as a barrier.

The dismal performance of altcoins in the last 24 hours has seen Chainlink prices drop from a high of $23 yesterday to $22 today. The seventh-ranked cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently swapping hands at $23.

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The $23 level was reached around midnight, and there has been little consolidation since bears are still unwilling to give in. However, the Chainlink price will continue to drop throughout today as the overall momentum remains extremely negative.

Chainlink Price Analysis: Conclusion 

The Chainlink price prediction is bearish today because we expect the value to fall further following this morning’s bearish momentum. We anticipate that the LINK/USD pair will break lower, with support at $22.

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