Bitcoin (BTC) will “probably” miss out on its predicted monthly close for November, analyst PlanB concedes.
In a Twitter update on Nov. 25, the creator of the “worst-case scenario” end-of-month price forecasts prepared to accept defeat for the first time.
First ever miss “probable” for Bitcoin floor model
At around $40,000 short, Bitcoin is currently far below what should have been its minimum monthly close for November.
Now, PlanB acknowledges that BTC/USD hitting $98,000 in the next five days is somewhat unlikely.
“Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct),” he said as part of Twitter comments.
In an appearance on the podcast series hosted by Saifedean Ammous, author of “The Bitcoin Standard” and “The Fiat Standard,” on Nov. 11, PlanB explained his prior confidence in the floor model lying in its mathematical nature.
“If we don’t hit the $98,000 at the end of November, that would be a first on this specific indicator in the entire history of Bitcoin,” he said.
The series correctly predicted – almost to the letter (or number) – the $47,000, $43,000 and $63,000 monthly closing price for August, September and October, respectively.
Thanks for 200% yearly gains
Despite breaking with tradition, the floor price model’s letdown will have no impact on PlanB’s seminal stock-to-flow model series, he noted, after repeated confusion about the two being somehow related.
Stock-to-flow (S2F) currently demands an average BTC/USD price of $100,000 this halving cycle, with Q4 2021 given as a suitable timeframe for the level to appear for the first time.
Its sister model, stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), goes further with a $288,000 average, this nonetheless also coming in for criticism in recent weeks as BTC underperforms.
Speaking to Ammous, PlanB nonetheless said that the gap between spot price and the S2F model price has not yet threatened to invalidate it.
The model uses standard deviation bands to track progress, and so far this month, BTC/USD has stayed well within the acceptable range.
BTC/USD vs. stock-to-flow chart with standard deviation bands shown. Source: S2F Multiple/ Twitter
As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, a host of other indicators remain firmly bullish on the future, with the current price phase considered more as consolidation than the prelude to a deeper crash.
BTC/USD began 2021 at $29,000, while versus last Thanksgiving, hodlers are up over 210%.
Macro Guru Raoul Pal Betting on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Nine Additional Altcoins – Here’s His Current Crypto Portfolio
Real Vision chief executive Raoul Pal is revealing most of his crypto portfolio for public viewing.
In a new interview with Thinking Crypto, the former Goldman Sachs executive says that he primarily started out as a Bitcoin (BTC) investor then switched most of his BTC into Ethereum (ETH).
Pal says he then built a basket of 10 equally weighted large-cap altcoins. He later added the smart contract platform Solana (SOL) to his portfolio as well.
In an interview last week, the Real Vision CEO noted 82% of his portfolio is in ETH.
He says in his new Thinking Crypto interview that one of the smaller crypto assets he owns has seen such a significant surge in price that it’s ballooned into becoming his second-largest holding.
“What’s fascinating is my second-largest holding now, from an equally weighted basket, second to Ethereum, is Sandbox.
I’m bought in, it just went up 20x in the last month and a half, which is crazy.
I mean I would not take that position, second-largest position in Sandbox, but that’s where it is, and I’m not rebalancing for the time being.”
The Sandbox (SAND) is an Ethereum-based virtual world that allows fans of video games to build, own and monetize their gaming experiences. The project’s native token, SAND, is used to transfer value, secure the network and govern the protocol.
Pal also mentions that he bet on the Ethereum-powered decentralized virtual gaming world Decentraland (MANA). Decentraland’s native token, MANA, is used as a means of exchange.
The Real Vision CEO says he has also bet on a handful of decentralized finance (DeFi) projects, including the lending protocol Aave (AAVE), the decentralized exchange Uniswap (UNI), and the smart contract platform Polkadot (DOT).
Additionally, Pal notes that he’s made a couple of bets on social tokens, including Chiliz and Rally.
Chiliz (CHZ) is a platform for tokenizing sports and esports in order to encourage fan engagement.
Rally (RLY) is a decentralized network that enables creators and brands to monetize their content and offer community benefits.
Pal also says he owns XRP, citing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against the payments company Ripple as a primary factor.
Mike Novogratz Expects Bitcoin to Stay Above $42,000
Mike Novogratz says that it would be surprising to see Bitcoin below $40,000
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the price of Bitcoin is not going to fall below $40,000.
The crypto mogul told CNBC host Joe Kernen earlier today that he would be surprised to see the biggest cryptocurrency revisiting the aforementioned price level.
"I think $42,000 should hold, that should be the bottom of this move. It would surprise me if it went below $40,000," says @Novogratz on #Bitcoin's latest dip $BTC. "There's so many more people participating on it. It's hard for me to see if going below." pic.twitter.com/4VuYIw01dF— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) December 8, 2021
Novogratz is convinced that $42,000 will remain at the bottom of the ongoing correction.
I think $42,000 should hold, that should be the bottom of this move. It would surprise me if it went below $40,000.
Bitcoin suddenly collapsed 21% on Dec. 4, making crypto traders dust off their $20,000 charts.
The cryptocurrency managed to recover to $52,000 on Dec. 8, but it was rejected there.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading down 2.7%, slightly above the $49,000 level on cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp.
Novogratz claims that Bitcoin going below $40,000 would result in a significant sentiment shift, adding that such a dramatic drop would make him scratch his head.
The crypto boss remains optimistic due to the increasing number of people participating in the industry:
There’s so many more people participating on it. It’s hard for me to see if going below.
However, as reported by U.Today, growth investor Louis Navellier recently said that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if it were to lose the do-or-die $28,500 support level that managed to hold during a dramatic correction in summer.
After a streak of unsuccessful predictions in 2018, the hedge fund veteran made a prescient call about Bitcoin reclaiming its previous record high of $20,000 by the end of 2020.
Bitcoin is now up 73% in 2021, significantly underperforming some of the top altcoins.
Top Trader Says Ethereum Looks Exceptionally Bullish, Unveils Targets for Bitcoin and Explosive Altcoin Terra
A popular crypto analyst believes Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and one altcoin are about to blast off and leave the recent market-wide slump in the dust.
The pseudonymous crypto strategist and trader Kaleo tells his 454,000 Twitter followers that ETH’s time to shine has arrived as the “king” of the layer-1 blockchain protocols.
The analyst says,
“ETH is so bullish after the most recent flush it’s not even funny.
We’ve seen a major rotation play among the alt [Layer-1s] the past few months.
It only makes sense that the king of the L1s finally has a chance to suck liquidity from the rest of the market and have a run of its own.”
Ethereum is about even on the day, trading for $4,346 at time of writing.
Kaleo next looks at Bitcoin and says he still believes the top crypto will reach at least $100,000 during the current cycle.
“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – I still expect to see Bitcoin have a parabolic move to top out at $100K+ this cycle.
I’ll gladly start scaling out around $150K. I expect it to go higher, but I’m not concerned with nailing the top. Until then, just keep stacking.”
BTC currently sits at $50,900 after having battled back from a flash-crash low around the $43,500 level on December 3rd.
Lastly, the crypto analyst lays out his price prediction for the Terra (LUNA) protocol, whose native token LUNA underpins a suite of decentralized stablecoins.
Kaleo tells his followers that Terra reaching the $100 threshold is inevitable.
“LUNA going to $100 from here is only a matter of time.”
LUNA has seen some wild price action in recent days, with the altcoin tumbling from $69.66 to $53.64 late last week before surging to $77.37 on Sunday.
The 10th-ranked crypto has since corrected but is back up 5% on the day to $70.74.