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First Mover Asia: What holiday? Bitcoin soars past $59k amid brisk trading

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Ether rose more than 6% and altcoins GALA, SAND, MANA and SHIB were among other winners on the day.

Good morning. Here’s what’s happening this morning:

Market moves: Bitcoin broke above $59,000 with at least one analyst expecting a “healthy” holiday rally.

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Technician’s take (Editor’s Note): On account of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, today’s First Mover Asia will include a column in place of the usual Technician’s take.

Prices

Bitcoin (BTC): $59,118 +3.5%

Ether (ETH): $4,530 +6.4%

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Market moves

The crypto market on Thursday, the U.S. Thanksgiving day holiday, was not as quiet as some anticipated, after bitcoin prices briefly broke past $59,000, and trading volume remained at a level similar to the previous three days. Ether soared past $4,500, a more than 6% gain.

Credit: CoinDesk/CryptoCompare

As bitcoin’s price finished Thursday (HKT/SGT) in the green, the rest of the crypto market experienced high price volatility with major winners of the day including gaming tokens GALA, SAND, and MANA and dog-themed meme token SHIB. These tokens all saw high daily trading volume on Thursday, a bullish sign for a token’s price when it accompanies a price rally.

One analyst expects this bullish sentiment will continue during the December holiday season, particularly now that a few macroeconomic uncertainties have abated, including Jerome Powell’s  as Federal Reserve chair.

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“The period after U.S. Thanksgiving is traditionally very bullish for risky assets and I would not be surprised to see a healthy Christmas rally for cryptos during the holiday season,” Changguang Zheng, co-founder and chief investment officer at crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, told CoinDesk.

Yet there were also less optimistic signs in investors’ activities. “Bitcoin put options, derivatives offering downside protection, continue to become pricier, implying bearish sentiment,” CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole  on Thursday.

Opinion

El Salvador: Who Needs the IMF When You Have Bitcoin?: The IMF is a brutal bully constantly declaring its virtue. It’s about time someone pushed back.

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Christopher Nolan’s third Batman film, “The Dark Knight Rises,” is generally considered the weakest entry in the series, in part because it’s so easily read as a celebration of neoliberal authoritarianism. The film’s plot has the villain, Bane, take over Gotham City, wipe out all financial ledgers and reign over a kind of mega-Occupy movement. To fight back, Batman engages in a series of moral compromises that he justifies as, more or less, necessary exceptions to defend a more broadly just system.

The International Monetary Fund has been playing the Batman role in the global order for decades. Though nominally aimed at supporting democracy and free markets, reforms mandated by the IMF in exchange for its loans have historically included serious cuts to social spending and industrial policy. The fallout is often devastating: The IMF’s (real world) body count is considerably higher than Batman’s.

El Salvador, a country with low income and high debt, has been in negotiations with the IMF for one of its loans in the amount of $1.3 billion. One roadblock has been the country’s recent adoption of bitcoin as legal tender. The IMF signaled it wasn’t too happy with that idea.

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On Monday, El Salvador introduced a $1 billion “Bitcoin Bond” that could present at least a partial end-run around the IMF, highlighting why bitcoin made the IMF so queasy in the first place. “The Dark Knight Rises” contains a notorious moment, drawn from the Batman comics, in which Bane pummels Batman so badly that his back is broken, leaving him paralyzed and vulnerable. That’s about how the IMF is going to feel if El Salvador finds a way to raise large sums of international financing, as a developing country with a troubled economy, without the IMF or corruption-riddled global banks.

The bond allows purchases in units of $100, using bitcoin or tether. It will be issued by Bitfinex, an essentially stateless and unregulated platform. So there are probably few if any controls on who can buy into this bond, either by source or by amount.

That means one simple thing: El Salvador will absolutely sell out of this bond, and will probably be able to issue another round. It will replace that $1.3 billion from the IMF without breaking a sweat, even taking into account that about half of the first bond sale will go into a bitcoin fund.

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There doesn’t need to be any further explanation of this than “Bitcoiners are nuts and rich,” and would gladly pump money into this small country for the lulz. More seriously, every one of these experiments that pans out is another win for bitcoin, so pitching in is also a matter of enlightened self-interest. Remember that an Ethereum DAO just raised $40 million for what was essentially a vaguely civic-minded prank – $1 billion for an actual bond with an actual return is nothing.

Let’s leave aside the touted “Bitcoin City” El Salvador says it wants to build using the other half of the first bond. That’s mostly a marketing stunt: For $500 million, at best the country will get a couple of power plants, a server farm and an IHOP. And that’s actually fine! Assuming El Salvador follows through in broad strokes, you do need some kind of infrastructure to support the mining facilities, so whether or not it’s a “city” right off the bat is a matter of semantics. And $500 million of new capital in the small country will have a major impact regardless of how it’s spent.

So, kudos to El Salvador for burning down Wall Street and building a throne out of the skulls of predatory bankers. That said, the bond might not be a terribly great investment.

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For one thing, it introduces political counterparty risk to your bitcoin strategy. This is a country that only emerged from near-anarchy in 1994, and while President Nayib Bukele seems to have sturdy popularity, a disruptive change in leadership or the political order could mean creditors don’t get paid back. That’s not necessarily likely, but it’s on the table in a way that it’s not with, say, U.S. Treasury bonds (or just buying bitcoin yourself).

Also, Blockstream’s projection that the bond will return 165% annually over 10 years is based on the bet that bitcoin will be trading at $1 million by that time. I consider that completely possible, but also completely unknowable. A 10-year projection for literally any asset is pretty much always going to be a made-up number. Invest accordingly – unless your real priority is to change the world.

Important events

8:30 a.m. HKT/SGT (12:30 a.m. UTC) Australia retail sales (Oct. MoM)

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3:45 p.m. HKT/SGT (7:45 a.m. UTC) France consumer confidence (Nov.)

4 p.m. HKT/SGT (8 a.m. UTC) Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the ECB Legal Conference 2021

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Bitcoin

Mike Novogratz Expects Bitcoin to Stay Above $42,000

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Mike Novogratz says that it would be surprising to see Bitcoin below $40,000

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the price of Bitcoin is not going to fall below $40,000.

The crypto mogul told CNBC host Joe Kernen earlier today that he would be surprised to see the biggest cryptocurrency revisiting the aforementioned price level.

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Novogratz is convinced that $42,000 will remain at the bottom of the ongoing correction.
 

I think $42,000 should hold, that should be the bottom of this move. It would surprise me if it went below $40,000.
 

Bitcoin suddenly collapsed 21% on Dec. 4, making crypto traders dust off their $20,000 charts.

The cryptocurrency managed to recover to $52,000 on Dec. 8, but it was rejected there.

At press time, Bitcoin is trading down 2.7%, slightly above the $49,000 level on cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp.

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Novogratz claims that Bitcoin going below $40,000 would result in a significant sentiment shift, adding that such a dramatic drop would make him scratch his head.

The crypto boss remains optimistic due to the increasing number of people participating in the industry:

There’s so many more people participating on it. It’s hard for me to see if going below.

However, as reported by U.Today, growth investor Louis Navellier recently said that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if it were to lose the do-or-die $28,500 support level that managed to hold during a dramatic correction in summer.

After a streak of unsuccessful predictions in 2018, the hedge fund veteran made a prescient call about Bitcoin reclaiming its previous record high of $20,000 by the end of 2020.

Bitcoin is now up 73% in 2021, significantly underperforming some of the top altcoins.

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Ethereum

Top Trader Says Ethereum Looks Exceptionally Bullish, Unveils Targets for Bitcoin and Explosive Altcoin Terra

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A popular crypto analyst believes Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and one altcoin are about to blast off and leave the recent market-wide slump in the dust.

The pseudonymous crypto strategist and trader Kaleo tells his 454,000 Twitter followers that ETH’s time to shine has arrived as the “king” of the layer-1 blockchain protocols.

The analyst says,

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“ETH is so bullish after the most recent flush it’s not even funny.

We’ve seen a major rotation play among the alt [Layer-1s] the past few months.

It only makes sense that the king of the L1s finally has a chance to suck liquidity from the rest of the market and have a run of its own.”

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Ethereum is about even on the day, trading for $4,346 at time of writing.

Kaleo next looks at Bitcoin and says he still believes the top crypto will reach at least $100,000 during the current cycle.

“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – I still expect to see Bitcoin have a parabolic move to top out at $100K+ this cycle.

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I’ll gladly start scaling out around $150K. I expect it to go higher, but I’m not concerned with nailing the top. Until then, just keep stacking.”

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Source: Kaleo/Twitter

BTC currently sits at $50,900 after having battled back from a flash-crash low around the $43,500 level on December 3rd.

Lastly, the crypto analyst lays out his price prediction for the Terra (LUNA) protocol, whose native token LUNA underpins a suite of decentralized stablecoins.

Kaleo tells his followers that Terra reaching the $100 threshold is inevitable.

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“LUNA going to $100 from here is only a matter of time.”

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Source: Kaleo/Twitter

LUNA has seen some wild price action in recent days, with the altcoin tumbling from $69.66 to $53.64 late last week before surging to $77.37 on Sunday.

The 10th-ranked crypto has since corrected but is back up 5% on the day to $70.74.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin SV Coin Struggling Near Vital DMA lines, In Sideways Consolidation

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  • Bitcoin SV coin is trading sideways over the larger time frame, with a substantial consolidation over the past few months. 
  • The crypto asset is currently placed under the narrow range of $100 to $200 while trying to suppress its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day lines.
  • The pair of BTC/BTC is trading at 0.003027 BTC with an intraday gain of +3.21%, and the ratio of BTC/ETH is CMP at 0.03489 ETH with a minor 24-hour change of +1.91%.  
Chart of BSV/USD by Tradingview

Bitcoin SV coin at the monthly chart is trading sideways, with solid consolidation. Currently, the coin is trying to suppress its all vital moving averages of 20, 50, 100, and 200-day lines. The overall short to long-term trend is still neutral, as it is struggling near all vital moving averages. Volume activity over the chart increases and needs to grow strongly for the breakout from the sideways pattern. The breakout from the sideways pattern will create a substantial upside in upcoming trading sessions, which needs supportive volume activity to grow. The sustainability above the breakout level of $200, with supportive volume activity, will boost more upside to $240 to $270. Support on the lower side is $125 and $100, whereas resistance on the higher side is $180 and $200.

Bitcoin SV coin is trading under the roller coaster at the 4-hour time frame

Chart of BSV/USD by Tradingview

Bitcoin SV coin is trading under the roller coaster at the 4-hour time frame. Meanwhile, the technical parameters presently showcase substantial volatility, with good volume activity. Volume activity at the weekly chart is higher and needs to maintain above its average volume activity. BSV price is trading at $149 with an intraday drop of -1.84%, and the volume to market cap ratio is 0.2866.

relative Strength Index (CAUTION): Bitcoin SV coin RSI is heading lower, after testing the overbought zone. The coin moves lower with a substantial upsurge from the lower levels and RSI at 54. 

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (CAUTION): The daily chart projects a caution trend with a bearish crossover at the 4-hour time frame. The buyer’s signal line (green) is heading towards the seller’s line (red) for the upcoming negative crossover.  

Support levels: $125 and $100

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Resistance levels: $180 and $200.

DISCLAIMER

The views and opinions stated by the author, or any people named in this article, are for informational ideas only, and they do not establish the financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading crypto assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

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