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PlanB Addresses Failed $98,000 Bitcoin Price Prediction

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PlanB insists that his stock-to-flow model is still intact.

PlanB, a pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst from the Netherlands, has taken to Twitter to address the elephant in the room: his failed price prediction that recently became a subject of mockery on social media.

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After his proprietary floor model displayed near-perfect performance in August, September and October, it is on track to be terribly off this November.

The perpetual Bitcoin bull predicted that the “worst-case” scenario for Bitcoin would be $98,000 by the end of November, which means that the largest cryptocurrency would need to surge 67% in less than a week for this forecast to come to fruition.

The stock-to-flow model is alive and well

The analyst has three models that help him to “triangulate” the Bitcoin market. He combines his stock-to-flow (S2F) model with on-chain analysis and the aforementioned floor model.

On a podcast with Preston Pysh, PlanB explained that the latter is based on technical analysis:
 

It’s price, but it’s a mathematical thing. It’s capturing a classical error, a mathematical error. It’s not Bitcoin-related at all…It’s just another way of looking at the same price data that everybody is looking at.
 

Despite the fact that the floor model now appears to be broken, PlanB insists that it does not affect the controversial S2F model that brought him into prominence in the first place.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is still on track to hit $100,000 even though Bitcoin is well below the projected price.

The S2F model, which aims to predict Bitcoin’s value by taking into account the rate of stock production, is often criticized for solely focusing on scarcity, thus taking demand out of the equation.

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Crypto remains on the menu on Thanksgiving Day

While $98,000 appears to be out of reach, bulls continue to fight to paint November’s monthly candle green.

Earlier today, Bitcoin recovered to nearly $59,000, with many expecting it to be part of Thanksgiving Day conversations.

Digital Currency Group CEO Barry Silbert urged his followers to shill their favorite cryptos to family members at the table.

Bitcoin had a turbulent Thanksgiving last year, collapsing 13% within one day. However, hodlers definitely have something to be thankful for in 2021, with Bitcoin soaring roughly 320% since their last turkey dinner.

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Ethereum

Macro Guru Raoul Pal Betting on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Nine Additional Altcoins – Here’s His Current Crypto Portfolio

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Real Vision chief executive Raoul Pal is revealing most of his crypto portfolio for public viewing.

In a new interview with Thinking Crypto, the former Goldman Sachs executive says that he primarily started out as a Bitcoin (BTC) investor then switched most of his BTC into Ethereum (ETH).

Pal says he then built a basket of 10 equally weighted large-cap altcoins. He later added the smart contract platform Solana (SOL) to his portfolio as well.

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In an interview last week, the Real Vision CEO noted 82% of his portfolio is in ETH.

He says in his new Thinking Crypto interview that one of the smaller crypto assets he owns has seen such a significant surge in price that it’s ballooned into becoming his second-largest holding.

“What’s fascinating is my second-largest holding now, from an equally weighted basket, second to Ethereum, is Sandbox.

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I’m bought in, it just went up 20x in the last month and a half, which is crazy.

I mean I would not take that position, second-largest position in Sandbox, but that’s where it is, and I’m not rebalancing for the time being.”

The Sandbox (SAND) is an Ethereum-based virtual world that allows fans of video games to build, own and monetize their gaming experiences. The project’s native token, SAND, is used to transfer value, secure the network and govern the protocol.

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Pal also mentions that he bet on the Ethereum-powered decentralized virtual gaming world Decentraland (MANA). Decentraland’s native token, MANA, is used as a means of exchange.

The Real Vision CEO says he has also bet on a handful of decentralized finance (DeFi) projects, including the lending protocol Aave (AAVE), the decentralized exchange Uniswap (UNI), and the smart contract platform Polkadot (DOT).

Additionally, Pal notes that he’s made a couple of bets on social tokens, including Chiliz and Rally.

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Chiliz (CHZ) is a platform for tokenizing sports and esports in order to encourage fan engagement.

Rally (RLY) is a decentralized network that enables creators and brands to monetize their content and offer community benefits.

Pal also says he owns XRP, citing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against the payments company Ripple as a primary factor.

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Mike Novogratz Expects Bitcoin to Stay Above $42,000

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Mike Novogratz says that it would be surprising to see Bitcoin below $40,000

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the price of Bitcoin is not going to fall below $40,000.

The crypto mogul told CNBC host Joe Kernen earlier today that he would be surprised to see the biggest cryptocurrency revisiting the aforementioned price level.

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Novogratz is convinced that $42,000 will remain at the bottom of the ongoing correction.
 

I think $42,000 should hold, that should be the bottom of this move. It would surprise me if it went below $40,000.
 

Bitcoin suddenly collapsed 21% on Dec. 4, making crypto traders dust off their $20,000 charts.

The cryptocurrency managed to recover to $52,000 on Dec. 8, but it was rejected there.

At press time, Bitcoin is trading down 2.7%, slightly above the $49,000 level on cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp.

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Novogratz claims that Bitcoin going below $40,000 would result in a significant sentiment shift, adding that such a dramatic drop would make him scratch his head.

The crypto boss remains optimistic due to the increasing number of people participating in the industry:

There’s so many more people participating on it. It’s hard for me to see if going below.

However, as reported by U.Today, growth investor Louis Navellier recently said that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if it were to lose the do-or-die $28,500 support level that managed to hold during a dramatic correction in summer.

After a streak of unsuccessful predictions in 2018, the hedge fund veteran made a prescient call about Bitcoin reclaiming its previous record high of $20,000 by the end of 2020.

Bitcoin is now up 73% in 2021, significantly underperforming some of the top altcoins.

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Ethereum

Top Trader Says Ethereum Looks Exceptionally Bullish, Unveils Targets for Bitcoin and Explosive Altcoin Terra

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A popular crypto analyst believes Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and one altcoin are about to blast off and leave the recent market-wide slump in the dust.

The pseudonymous crypto strategist and trader Kaleo tells his 454,000 Twitter followers that ETH’s time to shine has arrived as the “king” of the layer-1 blockchain protocols.

The analyst says,

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“ETH is so bullish after the most recent flush it’s not even funny.

We’ve seen a major rotation play among the alt [Layer-1s] the past few months.

It only makes sense that the king of the L1s finally has a chance to suck liquidity from the rest of the market and have a run of its own.”

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Ethereum is about even on the day, trading for $4,346 at time of writing.

Kaleo next looks at Bitcoin and says he still believes the top crypto will reach at least $100,000 during the current cycle.

“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – I still expect to see Bitcoin have a parabolic move to top out at $100K+ this cycle.

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I’ll gladly start scaling out around $150K. I expect it to go higher, but I’m not concerned with nailing the top. Until then, just keep stacking.”

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Source: Kaleo/Twitter

BTC currently sits at $50,900 after having battled back from a flash-crash low around the $43,500 level on December 3rd.

Lastly, the crypto analyst lays out his price prediction for the Terra (LUNA) protocol, whose native token LUNA underpins a suite of decentralized stablecoins.

Kaleo tells his followers that Terra reaching the $100 threshold is inevitable.

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“LUNA going to $100 from here is only a matter of time.”

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Source: Kaleo/Twitter

LUNA has seen some wild price action in recent days, with the altcoin tumbling from $69.66 to $53.64 late last week before surging to $77.37 on Sunday.

The 10th-ranked crypto has since corrected but is back up 5% on the day to $70.74.

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