This week’s schedule is rather intriguing, with two major announcements to keep an eye on. On June 9, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, while on June 10, the United States and China will both disclose May CPI data.
ECB To Announce Interest Rate Decision
The ECB will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday at 11:45 GMT, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s news conference at 12:30 GMT.
Throughout the remainder of 2022, the disparity between the ECB and other major financial institutions’ rate rise probabilities continues to narrow. After the ECB ends its asset purchase program at its June meeting this week—when fresh Staff Economic Projections (SEP) are issued—rates markets will continue to price in a 10-bps rate increase in July.
According to Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s president, the deposit facility rate will be lifted out of the negative zone by the end of September 2022. To begin with, the bank took this to suggest two quarter-point increases in July and September, given the current deposit rate of -0.50%. Other ECB officials concurred with this viewpoint.
China and the U.S. To Disclose May CPI Data
Looking forward to this week’s US CPI data for May, investors’ primary concern is that, in their haste to restrict inflation’s upside risk, central banks will overtighten monetary policy and send the worldwide economy into recession.
Markets seem to be walking a tightrope of apprehension regarding whether the choice is preferable, despite the fact that soaring inflation is undoubtedly already exerting a cost-of-living impact on purchasing habits.
On the other hand, the prognosis for the Chinese economy is likely to improve marginally when the May CPI data are revealed on Thursday, but considering how dismal the March and April statistics were owing to lockdowns and COVID-19 limitations, this is a really low bar.
Despite these worries, Asian markets have advanced as Chinese officials have moved to loosen COVID-19 regulations around the nation. The most recent Caixin services survey revealed a little increase from April’s 36.2 score to a 41.4 result that was worse than anticipated.