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Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week



Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week with a question mark over the fate of the market ahead of another key United States monetary policy decision.

After sealing a successful weekly close — its highest since mid-June — BTC/USD is much more cautious as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

While many hoped that the pair could exit its recent trading range and continue higher, the weight of the Fed is clearly visible as the week gets underway, adding pressure to an already fragile risk asset scene.

That fragility is also showing in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals as miner strain becomes real and the true cost of mining through the bear market shows.

At the same time, there are encouraging signs from some on-chain metrics, with long-term investors still refusing to give in.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the week’s possible market movers in a tense week for crypto, equities and more.

Fed to decide on next rate hike in “another fun” week

The story of the week, all things being equal, is no doubt the Federal Reserve rate hike.

A familiar tale, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) on July 26-27 will see policymakers decide on the extent of the next interest rate move. This is tipped to be either 75 or 100 basis points.

U.S. inflation, as in many jurisdictions, is at forty-year highs, and its advance appears to have caught the establishment by surprise as calls for a peak are met with even larger gains.

“Should be another fun one,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente summarized on July 25.

The interest rate decision is due July 27 at 2:00 pm EST, a diary date that could well be accompanied by increased volatility across risk assets.

This has the potential to be exacerbated, one analyst warned, thanks to low summer liquidity and a lack of conviction among buyers.

“Entering ECB/FOMC/Tech Earnings amid the lowest liquidity of the year. Market is back to overbought. Bulls, let it ride,” Twitter account Mac10 wrote.

A previous post also flagged Q2 earnings reports as potentially contributing to a downwards move in line with previous behavior.

“BTC and risk assets have pumped higher on FOMC events this year, only to sell off after, is this time different?” fellow analysis account Tedtalksmacro continued:

“June’s FOMC meeting saw the US federal reserve deliver a 75bps hike – the single largest since 1994. More hefty hikes are expected before inflation is ‘normalised.’”

The week is already feeling different to last, even before events begin unfolding — Asian markets are flat in comparison to last week’s bullish tone, one which accompanied a resurgence across Bitcoin and altcoins.

While one argument says that the Fed cannot raise rates much more without tanking the economy, meanwhile, Tedtalksmacro pointed to the employment market as a target for keeping hikes coming.

“Bitcoin will struggle to move past 28k until data deteriorates,” he added.

Spot price fails to nail key moving average

Bitcoin’s latest weekly close was something of a halfway house for bulls, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

While managing its best performance in over a month, BTC/USD missed out on reclaiming the essential 200-week moving average (MA) at $22,800.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

After the close, which came in at around $22,500, Bitcoin began falling to the bottom of its latest trading range, still lingering below $22,000 at the time of writing.

MVRV-Z shows how overbought or oversold BTC is relative to “fair value” and is popular thanks to its uncanny ability to define price floors.

Its return could signal a fresh period of price pressure, as accuracy in catching bottoms has a two-week margin of error.

At the beginning of July, Cointelegraph reported on MVRV-Z, giving a worst-case scenario of $15,600 for BTC/USD this time around.

Sentiment cools from four-month highs

For the crypto market, the past week may well have been a brief period of irrational exuberance if sentiment data is to be believed.

The latest numbers from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show a steady decline from what has been the most positive market sentiment since April.

As of July 25, the Index stands at 30/100 — still described as “fear” driving the mood overall but still five points above the “extreme fear” bracket in which the market previously spent a record 73 days.

Sentiment has nonetheless made quite the comeback since mid-June when Fear & Greed hit some of its lowest levels on record at just 6/100.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source:

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