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Bitcoin price threatens $19.6K as Ray Dalio predicts 30% stocks crash



Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to violate local lows on Sep. 16 as the latest cross-crypto downtrend intensified.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

No relief for BTC bulls post Merge

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $19,600 at the time of writing, with buyer support just avoiding a further drop.

The level had remained in place as an intraday floor as the Ethereum Merge concluded, only to spark a sell-off, which took Ether (ETH)/BTC toward three-week lows.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Amid the gloomy mood, traders and analysts showed little inclination to reassess their market outlooks.

“I feel confident with the scenario of quick pump to 23k on BTC and 1800 on ETH and big dump from there,” Il Capo of Crypto wrote, reiterating a long-held theory:

“Time will tell.”

Warning that the situation “doesn’t look good,” meanwhile, popular account CryptoBullet demanded a reclaim of the 100-period moving average (MA) to flip bullish on the 4-hour chart.

The Ethereum Merge has done no good for the crypto bulls as the stocks continue to trend low and add to already intensified market pressure. 

On September 16, as the most recent cross-crypto slump grew stronger, Bitcoin (BTC) sought to breach local lows.

At press time, BTC/USD reached $19,600 with support from buyers to avoid any further drop. 

As the Ethereum Merge concluded, the level was the same as an intraday floor. However, this sparked a sell-off causing ETH/BTC to its three-week low. 

The traders and analysts also show little enthusiasm to reassess their market outlooks. 

Il Capo of Crypto wrote that the scenario of a short rally to 23k on BTC and 1800 on ETH and a significant low from there “I feel confident.” Reaffirming the theory of “Time will tell.”

CryptoBullet, a popular account, tweeted a warning about the current situation stating it “doesn’t look good.” He added that to be “bullish” they need to reclaim the 100-period moving average (MA). 

Dalio on the current market situation

Investor Ray Dalio came to some new conclusions about what the present boost in the market would entail after another day of losses on US equities. 

Dalio in his latest blog post on September 13 predicted that combined damage to stocks would cost around 30 percent of its current valuation. 

He explained that there are two types of negative effects on the asset process if the interest rates increase. The first one is the current value discount rate and the other one is a decline in income produced by assets due to a weak economy. He said, “We have to look at both.”

“What are your estimates for these? I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices (on average, though greater for longer duration assets and less for shorter duration ones) based on the present value discount effect and about a 10 percent negative impact from declining incomes.”

This would signal danger for the crypto markets that are highly connected, with BTC aiming for levels closer to $10,000.

According to data by the CME FedWatch Tool, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement an additional 75 basis point increase in the interest rates at the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting next week and some market participants are expecting a 100 basis points increase. 

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